Stock market tips and experiences

[ASAP]

and here is a bit more where the actual jobs are coming from - led by leisure and hospitality (AKA starbucks pourers) and to no one's shock - government... where we are printing money at this point... multiple job holders are also up +5%

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/here...one-chart.html

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by ASAP

everything about the current state of the economy is borderline comical and exactly nothing makes sense anymore...

As Judge Judy says almost daily, if it doesn't make sense then it's not true.

Also the reason why we fill our heating oil tank for the winter on the first Monday of every November.....

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

Mark my words that a revised jobs report will be posted on or after 11/6.....

November 7th, actually. 3Q data revisions historically come out on the first week of November.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

Does anyone have an opinion on XAR in these strange global times? I like that Boeing isn't a major component, and the expense ratio seems lower than other similar ETFs.....

What I normally do is look at the components of the portfolio and see what, if anything, it has that I don't already own in another fund. I have a subscription to Morningstar, which allows me to look at my total portfolio and see exactly how much of any given stock that I own across my entire portfolio.

This fund's top 10% of holdings make up 47% of its total assets. In there I see Axon, Curtis-Wright, Lockheed, L3, RTX, Northrop, GE Aerospace and others.

Then I would look at the major players in terms of LT performance and fair market value.

I might buy the fund, or buy a few individual components. I already own RTX and might, for instance, buy Northrop and Lockheed. Looking at NOC & LMT individually, they appear to be fairly valued. One could perform a similar process on the other holdings.

Morningstar gives this fund a 3-star (average) Bronze rating. It is up YTD less than the S&P and outperforms over 1-yr. Not so much longer term.

I have owned several sector funds over the years and am now down to only 3 or 4 on the basis of long term performance. I only buy riskier assets when they outperform a typical large cap growth fund in the long term. Sector investing is often cyclical.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

DrVenture

Fed is gonna be in a tough spot here lol -

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/trea...bs-report.html

Better them than me.

[DrVenture]

I enjoyed this article and I am a fan of Josh Brown's style. His opinions are interesting.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/06/auth...d-to-know.html

[other_evolved]

Great Q3 that just wrapped up for the domestic indexes. I plucked this from one of the analyst groups we work with:

"In fact, of the 723 names listed on the S&P 500 Index and the S&P/TSX Composite Index, only 151 registered negative returns in the third quarter, while 489 of those names outperformed the S&P 500’s total quarterly return of 4.6% and 372 names outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite’s 10.5% gain. This is in stark contrast to what happened last year, at least in the U.S., where all the S&P 500’s gains through November of 2023 were generated by just seven constituent stocks."

Good to see broader performance attribution versus the Mag 7.

[DrVenture]

And with the recent release of slightly higher inflation, coupled with a tick up in unemployment claims, the stage is set for another rate cut, presumably 25 basis points.

Only a few isolated data points, but no big surprises.

[chassis]

What is the latest YOY (TTM) inflation for all items?

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by chassis

What is the latest YOY (TTM) inflation for all items?

2.5%

https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-...line-chart.htm

[chassis]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

2.5%

https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-...line-chart.htm

Thanks!

What annual growth rate is the economy expanding (or shrinking)?

[DrVenture]

Last 4 quarters ending June 30 GDP averages to about 3.1%
2024 GDP is projected @ 2.7% IIRC.
Headline inflation is 2.4% YOY.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

And with the recent release of slightly higher inflation, coupled with a tick up in unemployment claims, the stage is set for another rate cut, presumably 25 basis points.

Only a few isolated data points, but no big surprises.

dr venture, i think jerome powell may need more of your advice...

CPI actual came in a bit over expectation but wholesale came in under-

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/11/prod...ber-2024-.html

margin gouging perhaps?

10Y Treasury up to 4.1%, mortgage rates ticking back up and unemployment still not coming in hot...

[DrVenture]

We have a bit to go, yet. I'd say 12-18 months before we know how this plays out. If I had to guess, it will be 12 months of rate cuts totaling no more than 1-1.5%, and 6 months more to see where that leads us.

I could see us sitting at a FED funds rate of 3.5% (give/take 50 basis points) going forward barring any serious issues as demonstrated by GDP or jobs. My guess is that FED would like to use this opportunity to "normalize" rates and will avoid dropping too low without serious economic problems forcing additional action. 2.5-3.5% FED funds rate is considered neutral.

This is nothing but pure speculation on my part. It will be interesting to look back later and see if it holds water.

it is also important to note that the 10-yr treasury is not entirely controlled by the FED funds rate - "The yield on the 10-year Treasury has many drivers. For example, when economic confidence is high, demand for safe-haven assets (like Treasuries) falls. This pushes prices lower and yields higher. Yields are also influenced by uncertainty related to future inflation, growth and geopolitical risk. The 10-year Treasury yield may impact other longer term rates in the economy such as fixed-rate mortgages and corporate borrowing costs.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

...

CPI actual came in a bit over expectation but wholesale came in under-

…

margin gouging perhaps?

...

More likely, timing. Wholesale/produces prices typically move before retail, or consumer prices. So a lower PPI suggests the CPI will trend down next report or two.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

We have a bit to go, yet. I'd say 12-18 months before we know how this plays out. If I had to guess, it will be 12 months of rate cuts totaling no more than 1-1.5%, and 6 months more to see where that leads us.

I could see us sitting at a FED funds rate of 3.5% (give/take 50 basis points) going forward barring any serious issues as demonstrated by GDP or jobs. My guess is that FED would like to use this opportunity to "normalize" rates and will avoid dropping too low without serious economic problems forcing additional action. 2.5-3.5% FED funds rate is considered neutral.

This is nothing but pure speculation on my part. It will be interesting to look back later and see if it holds water.

it is also important to note that the 10-yr treasury is not entirely controlled by the FED funds rate - "The yield on the 10-year Treasury has many drivers. For example, when economic confidence is high, demand for safe-haven assets (like Treasuries) falls. This pushes prices lower and yields higher. Yields are also influenced by uncertainty related to future inflation, growth and geopolitical risk. The 10-year Treasury yield may impact other longer term rates in the economy such as fixed-rate mortgages and corporate borrowing costs.

Well said. I’d add that both candidates are promising substantial fiscal stimulus so the FED could have to offset that with monetary tightening, if either candidate’s party gets enough of the house/senate to actually enact their promises.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

More likely, timing. Wholesale/produces prices typically move before retail, or consumer prices. So a lower PPI suggests the CPI will trend down next report or two.

This is an excellent point.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

We have a bit to go, yet. I'd say 12-18 months before we know how this plays out. If I had to guess, it will be 12 months of rate cuts totaling no more than 1-1.5%, and 6 months more to see where that leads us.

I could see us sitting at a FED funds rate of 3.5% (give/take 50 basis points) going forward barring any serious issues as demonstrated by GDP or jobs. My guess is that FED would like to use this opportunity to "normalize" rates and will avoid dropping too low without serious economic problems forcing additional action. 2.5-3.5% FED funds rate is considered neutral.

This is nothing but pure speculation on my part. It will be interesting to look back later and see if it holds water.

it is also important to note that the 10-yr treasury is not entirely controlled by the FED funds rate - "The yield on the 10-year Treasury has many drivers. For example, when economic confidence is high, demand for safe-haven assets (like Treasuries) falls. This pushes prices lower and yields higher. Yields are also influenced by uncertainty related to future inflation, growth and geopolitical risk. The 10-year Treasury yield may impact other longer term rates in the economy such as fixed-rate mortgages and corporate borrowing costs.

You can call me a permanent bear if you'd like... but personally, I think J powell is in a tough spot and I think he likely knows that. We are in an unprecedented situation because I don't think this much fiscal stimulus has ever gone out in as short of a time as Covid and was later combined with supply shortages.

I predict inflation will see saw for a while longer... services will take longer to drop. Unemployment will also teeter up and then down but the overall trend will be down... and ultimately the consumer will slowly run out of money which is what we are now seeing with consumer sentiment. If employment ticks up together with the consumer running low on funds, that's when we'll see GDP growth falter... I predict it's coming sooner than later.

There is a ton of media propaganda running around that the fed is reaching its 2% target... well that's great except it still after a 30% cumulative increase over the past 4 years. That really doesn't help anybody.

Originally Posted by 2000cs

More likely, timing. Wholesale/produces prices typically move before retail, or consumer prices. So a lower PPI suggests the CPI will trend down next report or two.

It's funny how fast that works up but how slow it works down right?

[DrVenture]

Cumulative inflation from Oct 2020 (4 years) is closer to 20%. Wage growth has been about 7-8% annually in the same period. It has eclipsed inflation. SS has seen about a 21% increase.

Personally, I think Powell is fucking giddy! I would be. And I'd bet he knows that he has been handed a historic opportunity, for a man in his position. Now, had he raised rates to 5.5% and inflation didn't budge, he might be feeling some pressure. I spent my whole career embroiled in "crisis management", often working without a net and spinning plates, while juggling chainsaws. People who stick around in positions like that, enjoy the challenge.

The S&P nominal total return since September 2019 is around 103%, with dividends reinvested. If one believes it is all going to come crashing down, they could make an exit right now and come out way ahead. Everything else is just noise.

[ASAP]

I wish i could continue to laugh but it's almost time to cry now lol...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/us-t...key-data-.html

what was that interest rate drop about again lol? jpow continues to be in a tough spot

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I wish i could continue to laugh but it's almost time to cry now lol...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/us-t...key-data-.html

what was that interest rate drop about again lol? jpow continues to be in a tough spot

1 more 25 bp cut this year...?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

1 more 25 bp cut this year...?

the problem is that every reaction is working against every action...

if unemployment claims are down, treasury yields are up and retail sales are up (assuming this is all true)... then supposedly the economy is good and we should be in fact raising rates lol... this would prevent any bounce back inflation..


however, cost of housing and mortgage rates are still high... and many sectors are not doing well... in which case we should be lowering rates... that aside from all of the layoffs that are still taking place

they are in a pickle and thats why the story changes daily from the fed governors