The real estate market is crazy right now

[curd]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Tend to agree that it won't be a crisis like 2008, but that does not mean that valuations *won't* decline by 30-40% from peak, especially in markets that went bonkers in the last 28 months.

What's different from 2008 is that while underwriting is better, we've not been in a secular increase of interest rates like this in decades. People have become accustomed to cheap money and it's hard to say how this change is going to impact the market overall. The market eventually reverts back to the mean, and if you use this graph as a guide, the last few years' growth has a way to go back down.

Attachment 2977460

Yes, I am certainly with you on that point. Some markets will have a more significant downturn, like I mentioned in my previous post. It remains to be seen how steep the decline in some places like Boise, ID will look. My market is still seeing properties move within a week, a majority of them traditionally financed between 5.5-7% interest rates. Some hard money still as well. Supply is just still too low for there to be an outright correction. Properties that were overpriced to begin with are the only ones correcting. Housing is a necessity, and rental prices are actually outpacing the rise in interest rates in my market.

Ultimately though, regardless of if there is or isn't a correction in the near future -- the upward trend on your graph is very clear. If prices do come down, then buy as much as you can!

[ASAP]

I can only speak to FL which was the hottest market of all during Covid and by far saw the highest pricing gain over the past 3 years.

Do I think prices will decline 30%? Probably not.

Do I already see a massive slow down in sales and discounts on just about everything on realtor and zillow? Yes, yes I do... more and more homes are sitting and being discounted.

The interest rate hikes appear to be doing their job... i hate to say this but Powell finally appears to be doing something right. This market needs to be cooled and asap.

Remember - FL while a hot housing and tourist market does not have the job market of many other areas... I wonder when the tide will turn on the market based on all of the people that move down here during Covid... I can assure you that it wasn't locals buying everything up.

[chassis]

Real estate cannot be summarized with blanket statements for the entire country.

Population continues to migrate south and west. Generally, south and west values will be firm over the long term: GA, TX, FL, NC, SC, AZ, CA.

Added to this, homebuilding after the GFC did not keep up with demand, and for the past few years residential construction has been in a catch-up mode. Recently new home construction and sales have stalled, but the catch-up process still has years to run. This keeps all prices firm because of tight supply, even in less desirable regions (e.g. colder areas: midwest and northeast).

Cartoonlike markets such as NorCal and Manhattan bear no resemblance to other real estate markets in the U.S. What happens to prices in those markets is meaningless compared with other regions.

[lloydwctr]

I am also planning to buy a house soon, and I also noticed that the real estate market has been crazy. I don't know if this will end soon, but I hope so. I am shocked to see such fast sales of houses, high prices, and so many frauds. Besides all the details you mentioned, one thing that bothers me is that the real estate agents don't tell you all the information about the house, and the house is very different in reality compared to the pictures. That's why I work with S Jones Surveying, which makes different reports on some houses to make it easier to choose the right house for me. But unfortunately, I haven't found the right one yet.

[exE36M3]

Home prices went crazy because tech + remote work.

Google "salary of software engineers."
There's your answer.

Or if I can summarize, the average salary of the people at Google, Facebook, etc. is $225k-$265k for a decent coder after a few years of experience. The only other occupation that pays that type of earned income is a lawyer, doctor, etc. after years of schooling, heavy-debt-load, etc. Heck, I see the job postings at my office... $225k for a mid-level software developer, and we are considered a tier "B" tech company.

I live in Norcal and have observed tech since 2000. Every tech boom, the home prices bounce upward. And when covid drove people out of SF (and the like) apartment living, those people bought houses...

[allinon72]

Originally Posted by exE36M3

Home prices went crazy because tech + remote work.

Google "salary of software engineers."
There's your answer.

Or if I can summarize, the average salary of the people at Google, Facebook, etc. is $225k-$265k for a decent coder after a few years of experience. The only other occupation that pays that type of earned income is a lawyer, doctor, etc. after years of schooling, heavy-debt-load, etc. Heck, I see the job postings at my office... $225k for a mid-level software developer, and we are considered a tier "B" tech company.

I live in Norcal and have observed tech since 2000. Every tech boom, the home prices bounce upward. And when covid drove people out of SF (and the like) apartment living, those people bought houses...

That's a regional phenomenon and has little to do why the real estate market has exploded nationwide.

[2000cs]

We’ve been looking at eastern TN (Nashville-Chattanooga to the eastern border) for some time. Houses were appearing and going “pending” within a few days before Labor Day. Now they sit a week to 10 days if they are really nice properties, but anything a little inferior can sit and sit. That has always been true, but it has become really apparent this month. Still not much good inventory so when something good comes along, it disappears. The flips seem to have started sitting, so those owners will feel some pain.

Here in FL where we live (Flagler Beach) there is also no inventory and prices are holding up. But this is one of the least expensive ocean-front towns, so it probably will hold up better than some. Also virtually no buildable lots remain along the ocean, so demand has to fall a lot to crater prices (again the best properties have no problem).

I’m told there are still over 50% cash buyers in both markets, above about $750k purchase price. They are being more selective but not yet underbidding (although the bidding wars have subsided). I suspect the stock market’s performance may take some wind out of their sails soon.

[ryan stewart]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Tend to agree that it won't be a crisis like 2008, but that does not mean that valuations *won't* decline by 30-40% from peak, especially in markets that went bonkers in the last 28 months.

What's different from 2008 is that while underwriting is better, we've not been in a secular increase of interest rates like this in decades. People have become accustomed to cheap money and it's hard to say how this change is going to impact the market overall. The market eventually reverts back to the mean, and if you use this graph as a guide, the last few years' growth has a way to go back down.

Attachment 2977460

Concur as a whole, although YMMV as some areas, especially dense urban areas, have had population growth accelerate. We will cool off while the suburbanites and extra urban areas take the bigger hits, just like in 2008.

Im just glad there isnt this massive, corrupt secondary market and global insurance scam behind it.

[OkieSnuffBox]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

We’ve been looking at eastern TN (Nashville-Chattanooga to the eastern border) for some time.

We are going to start looking east of Nashville soon as well. I have a strong desire to move to a state with no income tax. Oklahoma's 4.75% state income tax, takes north of $10k combined income from us per year. That's not insignificant when you're in the middle class.

She want's to go to Florida, but it's flat, there are hurricanes, and many types of animals that would like to make me lunch.

[OkieSnuffBox]

Although the rise in interest rates is definitely going to put that on hold for a few years likely. Which will give us a chance to narrow down a few areas and spend some time there.

One thing I've made clear to the other half is, we aren't moving somewhere so small and out of the way, that it becomes a 2 day even to see shows/comedians/etc.

Drive for hours, get a room, see show, crash at hotel, drive home the next day. I'm not interested in doing that.

[Alfisti]

A house just sold down the street for absurd money, i don't get it. It is a proper brand new , custom GORGEOUS house but it is BANG on a stop sign. You couldn't pay me to live there with all the noise, but it sold for over $3M which is just nuts.

[exE36M3]

Originally Posted by allinon72

That's a regional phenomenon and has little to do why the real estate market has exploded nationwide.

Except that if you look at just tech alone... people left Norcal and went to Texas, Oregon, Tennessee, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, etc. And those with tech centers elsewhere like Chicago or Boston did similar.

So going to disagree there. Remote work and the rise of "digital nomads" has changed the way people work and buy homes too.

[Watching The World Burn]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

A house just sold down the street for absurd money, i don't get it. It is a proper brand new , custom GORGEOUS house but it is BANG on a stop sign. You couldn't pay me to live there with all the noise, but it sold for over $3M which is just nuts.

Yup, a house on my street just sold last month for $4.2M and another house on the street sold about a month or two before it, not sure what they got but they were asking $3.9M as I recall. Just nuts.

They were both waterfront though.

[zx10guy]

Originally Posted by allinon72

That's a regional phenomenon and has little to do why the real estate market has exploded nationwide.

Originally Posted by exE36M3

Except that if you look at just tech alone... people left Norcal and went to Texas, Oregon, Tennessee, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, etc. And those with tech centers elsewhere like Chicago or Boston did similar.

So going to disagree there. Remote work and the rise of "digital nomads" has changed the way people work and buy homes too.

I'm saying you're both right. And to expand on the tech part, it's not about people working in tech per say. It's what happened during the pandemic when companies were forced to figure out their remote working plan. This is why you saw an explosion in various tech companies/products when companies had to invest in Zoom, WebEx, GoToMeeting, etc. In addition to VPN and 2FA solutions, for secure remote working. I'm seeing this where my vacation home is in Delaware. Tons of people have moved there along with lots of new large housing developments. I can say traffic has exploded since I bought my place there in 2012. And I used to be able to get a reprieve when beach season is over. Not anymore. There's traffic year round due to the people living there full time now.

[Alfisti]

Originally Posted by Watching The World Burn

Yup, a house on my street just sold last month for $4.2M and another house on the street sold about a month or two before it, not sure what they got but they were asking $3.9M as I recall. Just nuts.

They were both waterfront though.

My issue with this one is it is BANG on a stop sign, the noise from cars slowing, then accelerating, squeaky brakes, exhausts etc... for $3.25M? No fucking way.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by petyoautomotive

I am also planning to buy a house soon, and I also noticed that the real estate market has been crazy. I don't know if this will end soon, but I hope so. I am shocked to see such fast sales of houses, high prices, and so much fraud.

What do you mean by "fraud"?

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

What do you mean by "fraud"?

Probably a spam bot.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by exE36M3

Home prices went crazy because tech + remote work.

Google "salary of software engineers."
There's your answer.

Or if I can summarize, the average salary of the people at Google, Facebook, etc. is $225k-$265k for a decent coder after a few years of experience. The only other occupation that pays that type of earned income is a lawyer, doctor, etc. after years of schooling, heavy-debt-load, etc. Heck, I see the job postings at my office... $225k for a mid-level software developer, and we are considered a tier "B" tech company.

I live in Norcal and have observed tech since 2000. Every tech boom, the home prices bounce upward. And when covid drove people out of SF (and the like) apartment living, those people bought houses...

The interesting thing about tech that no one seems to be talking about is how the recent market downturn in tech (stock value, talk of layoffs, hiring freezes) is impacting the housing market in tech heavy locations like where you are and where I'm at (Seattle). Seattle was covered in news about how a large percentage of house buying was being done in cash, in particular at the entry level properties. I recall thinking to myself that the Fed raising rates was not going to have a huge impact in Seattle as so many people are just paying cash and dont care about financing. Man was I wrong. Overnight the entire market just stalled. All these 20-something coders with vested options who were cashing them out to buy houses just lost their ability to access $1MM+ in cash and find a house. I think they got spooked and dropped out of the market.

[Alfisti]

Predictably, listings have totally gone dry here. So whilst sales numbers are way, way, way down, selling price has barely moved because the only people listing are those that have to and buyers who HAVE to buy are still bickering over the little inventory there is.

[freakystyly]

Same here, inventory down 20% prices down maybe 5%, interest rates up to whatever they are now, overall prices up.

[curd]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Predictably, listings have totally gone dry here. So whilst sales numbers are way, way, way down, selling price has barely moved because the only people listing are those that have to and buyers who HAVE to buy are still bickering over the little inventory there is.

This is exactly why the housing slump we currently face, will be very short lived, particularly when the folks who were artificially priced out of the market return when this inflation period begins to get wrangled in.

It is a simple factor of far too little supply, and far too many folks (young millennials, Gen Zers entering the markets) who will be entering the home buying arena. When interest rates fall back down to more manageable numbers, we are going to see another heating of the market in about a years time. Until zoning laws are re-structured all around this country & affordable homes are more subsidized & more profitable to build, (and builders catch up to the 5 or so years they are behind in new construction) this type of boom or bust market will continue. Sure, there are markets who were entirely propped up because of the pandemic & work from home orders that will come back down to reality like I said earlier, but overall the supply is just far too low all across the nation.

[Alfisti]

I suspect the regional cities that gained from the EFH thing will struggle the most and detached housing within commuting distance of a large city will again be primo because it's just not being built. It's all condos here, nothing else. There's a development near my place, about 10 miles from Toronto centre, 4,000 new residences and not one semi house (let alone detached), 10% townhouses and 90% condos.