Official Tesla Talk Thread **No Politics**

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by GenXer

Cows don't produced green house gases when they're on your plate or covering your cushion.

LOL, that's the problem turning everything into a whiney political narrative: they're always wrong, especially when it comes to human behavior and business ...

Which is why all the political whiners have been so wrong for so long about Tesla.

As anecdata, back in 2015ish I knew probably 50 Tesla Model S owners here in California - that statement alone is enough to put spittle on the screens of the politicos - and yet, I can say for an absolutely fact, not a single one of those people bought their Model S for any other reason than they thought it was cool. Case in point, Joe Rogan, who likes his Tesla better than his Porsche GT3 RS.

Here's the point the politically obsessed constantly miss about Tesla:

Musk purposely created a product with enough attributes that most people would want one!

Examples:
• High tech UI
• High power
• Luxury styling
• Cutting edge tech / features (e.g., OTA updates and mods)

Thus, someone might prefer leather seats, but it likely won't be a dealer-killer given everything else ... however someone who's top priority is sustainability, leather COULD be a deal-killer ... Someone might prefer ICE, but given all the other features, it likely won't be a deal killer; however for someone focused on sustainability, it would be. etc etc.

Tesla designed its products to sell.

And this same thing is going to play out IN TEXAS with PICKUP TRUCKS!

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

LOL, that's the problem turning everything into a whiney political narrative: they're always wrong, especially when it comes to human behavior and business ...

Which is why all the political whiners have been so wrong for so long about Tesla.

As anecdata, back in 2015ish I knew probably 50 Tesla Model S owners here in California - that statement alone is enough to put spittle on the screens of the politicos - and yet, I can say for an absolutely fact, not a single one of those people bought their Model S for any other reason than they thought it was cool. Case in point, Joe Rogan, who likes his Tesla better than his Porsche GT3 RS.

Here's the point the politically obsessed constantly miss about Tesla:

Musk purposely created a product with enough attributes that most people would want one!

Examples:
• High tech UI
• High power
• Luxury styling
• Cutting edge tech / features (e.g., OTA updates and mods)

Thus, someone might prefer leather seats, but it likely won't be a dealer-killer given everything else ... however someone who's top priority is sustainability, leather COULD be a deal-killer ...

Tesla designed it's products to sell.

most nerds buy it for tech...most scrooges buy it for low depreciation and running costs..most environmentalists buy it for the green credentials..most performance seekers buy it for the straight line performance.
So many bases covered. No wonder they sell well. Other manufacturers will have to do better finance deals while still beating them in all of the above to gain a lead. So far only porsche seems to have done that with the tsycsn with great sales results.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

So far only porsche seems to have done that with the tsycsn with great sales results.

Such a good point, and that's the crazy thing ...

Interesting speculative Questions:
• Should Porsche go after Tesla and break their existing customer segmentation model?
• Will the legacy VAG brands & market segments hold up in a BEV world?

WARNING: Business / product nerd stuff from here forward.

(1.) The Tesla brand is unique in autos: Luxury, premium, and broad. We'll see if that continues ... Mercedes & VW (Phaeton) tried this, many have, but it never works well. For now, a Model 3 is higher volume, lower priced, but still "luxury car". It's conceivable that, as an online brand, Tesla may be the first automaker to be both luxury and mass market ...

(2.) In ICE-land, Porsche is a niche sport/luxury brand, and Porsche been using its partnership with VAG to milk VAG of everything it can - not only is Porsche WAY stronger, but Porsche also beefed up Bentley and is now turning Bentley back over to Audi / "Premium". Partnering with VAG has been a financial coup for Porsche.



(3.) Porsche's (& VAG's) growth strategy has been and is SUVs. The thing with SUVs is, they're also kind of both luxury & mass market. $120k Jeep Wagoneer



(4.) VAG's current plans are to standardize horizontal capabilities including, presumably, Porsche's PPE BEV platform




(5.) But VAG's own customer segmentation definitions show heavy opportunity and overlap



We already know the VW brand can't stretch up ... and Audi has also had troubles in the direction ... but Porsche has been able to stretch down into the mid-priced market with SUV's, specifically stripper Macan's and Cayenne's in $60s and, previously, the low-priced boxster ...

Yes, the boxster maybe dinged up the brand a bit, but I'd argue that wasn't due to the price, rather the product itself not being a "real Porsche", i.e., selling in the 911 sport niche without being anything like a 911. In the case of SUVs, Porsche has been able to target the Family customer segment and extract a higher price for a "real Porsche" by targeting tech and safety:



So maybe Porsche should be using their brand and the SUV/CUV/Station Wagon/Cross segment to take on Tesla directly ... you could easily see a future where Tesla and Porsche trade places as #1/#2 in luxury vehicle sales, with Mercedes and BMW falling behind simply due to technology and brand perception ...

After all, Porsche's are still 99% made in Germany.

[TiMSport]

Porsche has consistently been the most profitable, or at least one of the most profitable companies for a reason.

[GrussGott]

Yup! I should've also noted, Porsche is also stretching *up* in BEVs, owning 25% of Rimac hypercars

[Bongoxxx]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

So just to throw some data out for consideration.

Looking at 2020 new-car U.S. sales data for 4-door mid-sized sedans, which is the core sales volume of the non-truck/SUV market, the top-4 non-electric cars vs. the Tesla Model 3. It's clear the market prefers the value and convenience of ICE vehicles. Data source is GoodCarBadCar.net

So just over 20% of the segment sales and 2nd in sales is “clear the market prefers ice”?

Pretty sure if you look year over year you will see the model 3 continues to eat market share in this segment. As well, as the price of the batteries continue to decline, you will see more switch.

When I bought my current 340 I considered the model 3. At the time the MSRP for my 340 was just shy of $75k Canadian and to get what I wanted in the Model 3 was just over $100k. Discount I received on the 340 was $14k, so the math was easy, it didn’t make any sense for the model 3.

Now an optioned M340 is $74k and an optioned model 3 performance is $77k. All the sudden it’s a compelling purchase.

[Bongoxxx]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

It's not 20% of the segment; in the data I presented, the Model 3 is 20% of just the top four (4) models in the mid-sized sedan market there are another 10 or more models in the segment. This is the problem when the data is analyzed to evaluate the preference of ICE vs. BEV. People don't understand the automotive marketplace.

Regardless, the 3 went from 0 to #2 in its segment in a few years and it costs significantly more than the cars in its segment.

The vast majority of drivers don’t care about what’s under the hood. It’s all about what “drives” them (pun intended). The vast majority now are driven by/want cool, trendy things and as the price comes down in EVs you will continue to see the shift.

[TiMSport]

Originally Posted by Bongoxxx

So just over 20% of the segment sales and 2nd in sales is “clear the market prefers ice”?

Pretty sure if you look year over year you will see the model 3 continues to eat market share in this segment. As well, as the price of the batteries continue to decline, you will see more switch.

When I bought my current 340 I considered the model 3. At the time the MSRP for my 340 was just shy of $75k Canadian and to get what I wanted in the Model 3 was just over $100k. Discount I received on the 340 was $14k, so the math was easy, it didn’t make any sense for the model 3.

Now an optioned M340 is $74k and an optioned model 3 performance is $77k. All the sudden it’s a compelling purchase.

This is interesting. I don't quite understand how the M340I is compared to the Tesla Model 3. What I mean is, they are not similar to one another so I just wonder why you would cross shop them. Don't get me wrong, I had very briefly considered a model 3 myself, but realized there are just too many of them driving around and ultimately I preferred the ICE vehicle. Personally I want to "hear" the engine and the notion of being able to out-accelerate the M340i (model 3 performance spec) in a straight line would get old quickly IMO.

Sure, they are now not too far apart price-wise but just wondering. I know looks are subjective but the model 3 is just meh. Frankly I don't think the quality is there yet either. I know this is an ongoing Tesla thread and I have not participated in it so I don't mean to step on any toes here. I guess my own personal thought on having a car with a big i-Pad sitting in the console and pretty much nothing else is simply boring. To each his own though.

[KRS_SN]

@GrussGott figured out how to do this finally!

Where I live (suburban,) I see moms pootling about in their cayenne ehybrid coupes and macan turbo s's plenty more in stripper cayennes and macans.
The next most common one is range rovers.
Plenty of taycans(guys),plenty of model 3s (driven by aspirational kind).
Cool factor is Porsche SUV Range Rovers and Teslas and cool sells. I'm uncool

[Bongoxxx]

Originally Posted by TiMSport

This is interesting. I don't quite understand how the M340I is compared to the Tesla Model 3. What I mean is, they are not similar to one another so I just wonder why you would cross shop them. Don't get me wrong, I had very briefly considered a model 3 myself, but realized there are just too many of them driving around and ultimately I preferred the ICE vehicle. Personally I want to "hear" the engine and the notion of being able to out-accelerate the M340i (model 3 performance spec) in a straight line would get old quickly IMO.

Sure, they are now not too far apart price-wise but just wondering. I know looks are subjective but the model 3 is just meh. Frankly I don't think the quality is there yet either. I know this is an ongoing Tesla thread and I have not participated in it so I don't mean to step on any toes here. I guess my own personal thought on having a car with a big i-Pad sitting in the console and pretty much nothing else is simply boring. To each his own though.

Maybe you don’t understand it, but a good chunk of Tesla buyers are former BMW drivers .

Not saying they are in the same class, but lots of people are cross shopping them because they are in the same price range.

[Bongoxxx]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

The point is the Model 3 is supposed to be the 4-door BEV sedan alternative to the 4-door sedan ICE version. Statements on this thread make the Model 3 out to be some M3 competitor in the "near luxury" segment and it has attributes for a wide-range of buyers. Yet year over year in the family sedan segment, which is shrinking, buyers still prefer an ICE format. The Altima, Accord, Camry and Fusion are far from "cool" cars.

Not saying the M3 and the M3P are in the same class, but like I said above people are cross shopping them. Let’s be realistic, the general public could care less how a car handles - enthusiasts aside, most are stoplight to stoplight and accelerating down an on-ramp. The M3P will put most cars on the road to shame in those scenarios.

Let’s agree to disagree - I’d say in the family sedan market going from not existing to 2nd in sales is massive - even if it is a shrinking market. Ask any manufacturer if they’d like to go from 0 to 20% market share in a couple years - i think they’d all jump at it.

Let’s see where the Model Y sits in 2-3 years in the SUV segment.

[TiMSport]

Originally Posted by Bongoxxx

Maybe you don’t understand it, but a good chunk of Tesla buyers are former BMW drivers .

Not saying they are in the same class, but lots of people are cross shopping them because they are in the same price range.

I don't think that's unique to BMW drivers. I can assure you it's the same for Audi or MB as well. Obviously everyone drives a gasoline engine car before they transition to or add an EV to their stable. I was simply interested in your example of comparing the M340i and the M3P other than cost.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Bongoxxx

Let’s see where the Model Y sits in 2-3 years in the SUV segment.

Yup - the notion of comparing EV to ICE is, and always will be, meaningless; it's the core reason people have (and I guess will continue) to get Tesla wrong.

But that's not the only analysis mistake here ... there are so many! My top 3:

(1.) People buy cars in the $50k+ range because they're cool, not because of drivetrain, they really don't think "gee, EV or ICE?" It's an attribute for sure, but one of many. Just like people don't buy phones based on processor or even apps - they just assume that stuff will all be there.

I'll never forget this famous hedge fund guy who had massive shorts on Tesla on a CNBC interview; Interviewer, "You say nobody will buy EVs, but have you ever driven a Tesla?" Hedge Fund Guy: "well, yeah, I own 7 of them"

(2.) Lumping sales w/ 4 wheels together provides zero insight - it's why the auto industry has segments: to show comparables. For example we could equally say, "gee I guess the market prefers Hondas over Mercedes S-classes". Of course, that'd be silly, which is why execs compare vehicles in the same class (e.g., luxury vs sport) and same price point (e.g., $80k vs $50k vs $20k)

(3.) Sales are a function of vehicle availability! E.g., Tesla literally sells every vehicle it can make - it simply doesn't & can't produce enough vehicles to supply the market. If you go into a candy store and there are 25 kinds of suckers in every flavor, but only 3 Reese's on the shelf would we conclude "candy buyers prefer suckers"? No, because that would be wrong - nobody likes suckers better than Reese's peanut butter cups, duh.


Maybe the final and best reason not to compare ICE to EVs is because, the flip of #3: shortly there won't many new ICE to even buy ... I'm sure eventually I'll have an EV, but it won't be because I prefer one.

[GrussGott]

Who's going???

[KRS_SN]

I checked cars that I owned from early 2000s and I have sold in the national register and every single one of them is on the roads! That's real green.
I am sold on the performance aspect of the BEVs but they are promoted for their green credentials which to me doesn't make sense knowing what is the fate of battery powered devices I own as opposed to the petrol powered or corded devices I own.
One inescapable fact is that petrol or corded devices are pretty much the same/functional over long time periods while battery devices degrade.
I have seen how 3 year old tesla interiors can look and sound like a tsunami hit them when compared to a 3 year old bmw interior which doesn't look much different from new unless you fo astronomical miles.
Again it's tesla the car I am talking about.
Additional thought VAG group upsold skoda customer a voljswagen upsold a volkswagen customer a audi upsold sn audi customer a porsche upsold a Porsche customer a lamborghini.
Clever or stupid dint know
I see far less Audis in the streets compared to what I used to.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

I checked cars that I owned from early 2000s and I have sold in the national register and every single one of them is on the roads!

Wow that's pretty cool ... I'd love to know who has my individual M4s ... I could probably check but maybe I don't WANT to know?

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

I am sold on the performance aspect of the BEVs but they are promoted for their green credentials

I always hear that from people who don't like things with green credentials, but never from owners and/or the actual car manufacturers or sellers - could be an American thing - maybe in Europe it's different - but, as I've mentioned, I know probably 100 people with electric cars and not 1 has ever once mentioned green anything about them.

And this is California!

Just for fun, I took a look at the mfr sites for top electric cars and couldn't find a single mention of anything other than performance and/or cool factor:








I think this is because customers who want green/sustainable stuff already know what is and isn't (for them) and don't need to be marketed to - everyone else, which is the vast majority of car customers, just want a cool car.

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

I see far less Audis in the streets compared to what I used to.

This likely is due to how VAG has segmented their customers across brands: Audi is the mid-priced luxury brand now, and VAG has watered down their sport/track chops, i.e., S & RS no longer mean track oriented, rather luxury-sport and/or trim levels:



That is, VAG doesn't think "image seekers" of any age will buy many Audis so they're not trying to sell them there much any more and are more targeted families looking for the "safe, intelligent family estate" ... thus Audi has both moved up AND down in price.

Mercedes has always been able to sit at the higher price (and margin) point, so they don't have that problem as much ...

BMW is struggling fairly mightily to figure out how to grow in each segment with only 1 (or arguably 3) brands ... I think BMW was hoping Mini would take their VW brand niche, but that's not happened and BMW is stuck and flailing trying out crazy stuff like their new design language.

[HFW003]

I’ll just leave this here for all you youngens!

Get off my lawn!

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Guess you missed the "zero vehicle emissions" on the Mach E page right under "THE 2021 NORTH AMERICAN UTILITY VEHICLE OF TGE YEAR" banner.

Nice job green eagle eyes! Yes, on the 17 page mach-e website I missed those 3 small fonted words on the 2nd page - I still wouldn't call that "promoted as green" ...

Nevertheless, just in case anyone else missed it, I underlined it in red on page 2 for easy identification:

[GrussGott]

Couple of interesting Tesla things today:

(1.) VW Power Day
Net-net: VW is gonna 100% copy Tesla, but 4 years behind them and targeting 1/8 of Tesla's battery capacity. This won't make Tesla nervous ... and VW is the largest auto manufacturer in the World. For investors: based on this, TSLA easily has a path to $2T by 2030 on auto sales alone.


(2.) One interesting group of dudes!
Chinese Development Forum 2021, held in Beijing, starting March 20 - 22, theme is, "China on a New Journey to Modernization"

Check out this list of attendees:

• Oliver Zipse - Chairman of the Board, BMW AG
• Ola Källenius - Chairman of the Board, Daimler AG
• Elon Musk - Tesla
• Amin nasser - CEO of Saudi Aramco
• Ben van Beurden - CEO of Shell
• Tim Cook - CEO of Apple

What d'ya think all those dudes are gonna discuss??

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Nice job green eagle eyes! Yes, on the 17 page mach-e website I missed those 3 small fonted words on the 2nd page - I still wouldn't call that "promoted as green" ...

Nevertheless, just in case anyone else missed it, I underlined it in red on page 2 for easy identification:

When I read a book, I start in the front; maybe you read books from back to front?

Just askin'

Oh, and go review the Nissan Leaf website that states "zero gas, zero emissions", or the Hyudai Ioniq Electric "Zero tail pipe emissions. Drive to a greener tommorrow". Just for example.

Now with California, Germany, Ireland, France, Spain, most of the EU, 18 governments so far, all banning ICE between 2035 to 2040, I guess all those Governments want their subjects to drive cool, fast, expensive high-performance electrics. Who knew, Government elected (or unelected) officials are cool!

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Couple of interesting Tesla things today:

(1.) VW Power Day
Net-net: VW is gonna 100% copy Tesla, but 4 years behind them and targeting 1/8 of Tesla's battery capacity. This won't make Tesla nervous ... and VW is the largest auto manufacturer in the World. For investors: based on this, TSLA easily has a path to $2T by 2030 on auto sales alone.


(2.) One interesting group of dudes!
Chinese Development Forum 2021, held in Beijing, starting March 20 - 22, theme is, "China on a New Journey to Modernization"

Check out this list of attendees:

• Oliver Zipse - Chairman of the Board, BMW AG
• Ola Källenius - Chairman of the Board, Daimler AG
• Elon Musk - Tesla
• Amin nasser - CEO of Saudi Aramco
• Ben van Beurden - CEO of Shell
• Tim Cook - CEO of Apple

What d'ya think all those dudes are gonna discuss??

The attributes of Capitalism?

[DETRoadster]

This is interesting. Now multiple accounts of Teslas wedging themselves under semi trailers. Seems perhaps the autopilot may be "seeing" the space under the trailer as fair game to occupy.

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/03/16/..._WxJdEz86EL1Eq