Good time to buy Rivian stock?

[XutvJet]

Rivian stock is around $13/share and down from it's $140 peak a few years ago. Yes, they are smoking through cash and have been for a while. Their reliability is terrible but so was Teslas when they first started out. Rivian has announced 3 new smaller models and I think the company may be on the right track as these are cheaper, smaller, less powerful models that may better appeal to the masses. I don't plan to own an EV but I do think they are part of the automotive future, though are not the answer. They do have their value just as much as a hybrid or efficient ICE vehicle.

Now with that out of the way, what are investors thoughts? Any glaring red flags beyond what i already noted? I made a killing on my Activision Blizzard stock when MS bought the company and I was thinking about taking around 10% of that profit and buying around 800 shares and see what happens. I'd probably unload it once it gets to $50-60/share. This investment would represent a very tiny part of my portfolio so there's no worry here that I'm putting all my eggs in one basket.

[gonzo]

Brave

I'm too old for bravery. S&P...set it and forget it. So nice and stress free.

[ppointer]

EV stocks are not for me at the moment. Ford and Mercedes backing away for now. Tesla sales are down. I think it is at least 2025 before the market turns around, maybe. Better off looking for an AI play, like NVDA, SOUN, SMCI, PLTR, etc. They are all on a tear right now, so perhaps wait and grab some shares during a dip. Heck, even Apple is a buying opportunity at the moment.

[Car-Addicted]

Automaker Rivian pauses construction of its $5 billion electric truck plant in Georgia
ATLANTA (AP) — The CEO of Rivian Automotive announced Thursday that the electric truck maker is pausing construction of its $5 billion manufacturing plant in Georgia to speed production and save money.
State and local governments were projected to spend more than $125 million to buy the nearly 2,000-acre (810-hectare) site near Social Circle for Rivian, clear trees and grade land, documents show. That work has been finished, with the state turning the site over to Rivian. The state also has completed most of $50 million in roadwork that it pledged. But signs for Rivian Parkway at a new traffic signal on U.S. 278 had been removed Thursday.
https://apnews.com/article/rivian-ev...75b42ce7c051d7

I'm sure all the tax payers of Georgia are running right out to buy this stock.
The green grift continues.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

yes bro to the moon

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Brave

I'm too old for bravery. S&P...set it and forget it. So nice and stress free.

I hear ya. S&P 500 index funds make up a majority of my portfolio and it's done exceptional over the past 11 years. They will remain my primary investment vehicle. I'm a firm believer in S&P 500 index funds as the primary investment for most sub ~$3M portfolio investors.

This potential stock purchase is a bit of a "what the hell" type of thing I tend do with a small portion of my investment funds on occasion. Some failed (Ford, LKQ Corp.) and others have done well like Activision Blizzard and Sony. I fully expect the Rivian stock to drop a bit and perhaps even stay stagnant for a couple years but it's so cheap and I don't see the company folding.

[mjj]

It’s probably a better investment than spending it on hookers and blow…but the risk profile is similar.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Car-Addicted

Automaker Rivian pauses construction of its $5 billion electric truck plant in Georgia
ATLANTA (AP) — The CEO of Rivian Automotive announced Thursday that the electric truck maker is pausing construction of its $5 billion manufacturing plant in Georgia to speed production and save money.
State and local governments were projected to spend more than $125 million to buy the nearly 2,000-acre (810-hectare) site near Social Circle for Rivian, clear trees and grade land, documents show. That work has been finished, with the state turning the site over to Rivian. The state also has completed most of $50 million in roadwork that it pledged. But signs for Rivian Parkway at a new traffic signal on U.S. 278 had been removed Thursday.
https://apnews.com/article/rivian-ev...75b42ce7c051d7

I'm sure all the tax payers of Georgia are running right out to buy this stock.
The green grift continues.

These types of incentives are common place absolutely everywhere in the US and it is not just an EV/battery thing. I cannot fault Rivian for pausing construction and instead making the R2 at their current plant in order to get the vehicle to market on schedule. I cannot fault them for doing that, keeping their current employees busy, and perhaps focus on a more profitable, less powerful, and affordable EV for the masses. It's the right direction, IMO.

[Car-Addicted]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

These types of incentives are common place absolutely everywhere in the US and it is not just an EV/battery thing.

Reputable companies follow through on their contracts. Ev or not.

[cozye]

It’s super high risk. I picked up some with money I’m willing to lose. But as others have suggested, index investing and ETF’s are my default strategy. If Rivian last 5 years, my investment will be worth something. If not, no biggie.

[cozye]

Originally Posted by Car-Addicted

Reputable companies follow through on their contracts. Ev or not.

Companies burning through 3B of cash a year with a short horizon cannot afford to be “reputable”. It’s just business, and as a share holder, I’m glad they have paused. The demand has significantly weakened and they have capacity in the existing plant. I’m sure they had contingency built into the agreement. If they just opened up anyway without the demand, no one would have a job in 12 months anyway, with no possibility in the future.

[Tejas1836]

So, you're asking an internet vehicle forum about financial investing. Jeez, what could go wrong?

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by Tejas1836

So, you're asking an internet vehicle forum about financial investing. Jeez, what could go wrong?

I only buy high and sell low, so he should definitely listen to me.

[BlkGS]

Rivian is going to be liquidated within a couple years. Spend the money on the hookers and blow, at least that will be enjoyable.

That said, I could see them having a pop here and there above $15, so if you want to say trade type deal it, there's probably some money in it just riding the price fluctuations.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tejas1836

So, you're asking an internet vehicle forum about financial investing. Jeez, what could go wrong?

I've done quite well over the past 25 years of investing . Yes, it's an automotive forum, but I'm asking about a car stock and the money I'd invest represents a miniscule portion of my portfolio. It's largely just for fun and something I occasionally do with excess cash.

My 19 y/o techy son clued me into the new Rivian models as I had no idea they were on the way. He was the one that recommended Activison Blizzard years ago. I told him to tell me about any tech stocks he thought I should consider and Rivian is one of the recommendations. I've told him if I get the Rivian stock, I'd give him 30% of the profits if it works out.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

Rivian is going to be liquidated within a couple years. Spend the money on the hookers and blow, at least that will be enjoyable.

That said, I could see them having a pop here and there above $15, so if you want to say trade type deal it, there's probably some money in it just riding the price fluctuations.

I doubt they'll be liquidated. Amazon and the government have too much vested interest and Rivian is Tesla's most legitimate competition.

[Clark_Kent]

Originally Posted by gonzo

Brave

I'm too old for bravery. S&P...set it and forget it. So nice and stress free.

This. I used to trade options and buy individual securities , it was fun. I made some money, lost some money but nothing beats index funds and ETFs. If you're a patient investor you cannot lose money in those investments.

What's interesting is people always talk about their winning stocks but never the dogs they lost their shirt on. Funny how that works.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I doubt they'll be liquidated. Amazon and the government have too much vested interest and Rivian is Tesla's most legitimate competition.

Amazon will probably just buy them out during a C11. Assume all the properties and IPs of it, leave the stockholders with the liabilities. Probably for pennies on the dollar, some sort of preferred shareholder deal.

[Car-Addicted]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I doubt they'll be liquidated. Amazon and the government have too much vested interest and Rivian is Tesla's most legitimate competition.

The real money in being a EV manufacturer is not in selling the cars, it's in selling the carbon credits to companies that can't obtain the the CAFE standards.

Tesla Hits Record High Sales from Carbon Credits at $1.79B
Elon Musk’s Tesla generated a substantial $1.79 billion from carbon credit sales last year, as revealed in their Q4 2023 and annual financial report, bringing its total earnings from such credits since 2009 to nearly $9 billion.
https://carboncredits.com/tesla-hits...dits-at-1-79b/

So the EPA sets a CAFE standard no one can obtain unless they produce almost all Electric cars. Companies like GM and Ford are forced to buy millions of dollars of carbon credits to avoid significant EPA fines. They in turn pass on that cost to the folks who buy their cars. People like Jeff Bezos understands the green grift and will position himself to to take advantage.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Car-Addicted

The real money in being a EV manufacturer is not in selling the cars, it's in selling the carbon credits to companies that can't obtain the the CAFE standards.

Tesla Hits Record High Sales from Carbon Credits at $1.79B
Elon Musk’s Tesla generated a substantial $1.79 billion from carbon credit sales last year, as revealed in their Q4 2023 and annual financial report, bringing its total earnings from such credits since 2009 to nearly $9 billion.
https://carboncredits.com/tesla-hits...dits-at-1-79b/

So the EPA sets a CAFE standard no one can obtain unless they produce almost all Electric cars. Companies like GM and Ford are forced to buy millions of dollars of carbon credits to avoid significant EPA fines. They in turn pass on that cost to the folks who buy their cars. People like Jeff Bezos understands the green grift and will position himself to to take advantage.

I don't disagree that this is a poor practice but how about the lax CAFE rules on trucks? In what world should a Subaru Outback be classified as a "truck". Until someone addresses the CAFE classification issues with light trucks, US society will continue to buy up poor MPG and heavier polluting trucks and SUVs. We can do better.

[Car-Addicted]

Trucks are to do work and not be some status symbol for urban all hat no cattle posers.

[nicholasn]

From what I have seen, Rivian is losing money (apparently about $35k) on each R1T/R1S sold. Amazon vans are reportedly breaking even.

Tesla was making a profit on each vehicle sold early on in its history. When it scaled production up, it eventually became profitable.

Rivian is in a difficult spot because unless it can either charge a lot more per vehicle, or trim costs by a ton, increasing production will only exacerbate its financial position.