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      05-02-2019, 11:21 AM   #1783
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Originally Posted by Roundown View Post
BMW EV owner here - this is a stretch.

No one can get their hands on enough of those 2170 AA cells... they're an advantage. Conceptually the tech is simple (Tesla has released all its patents), but scale and vertical integration will elude Germany for a while.
Well that's true on vertical integration. I just think GM and Germany won't be behind for long once they are ready.
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      05-02-2019, 11:23 AM   #1784
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Well that's true on vertical integration. I just think GM and Germany won't be behind for long once they are ready.
Would also add that TSLA is probably 2-3 years ahead of BMW on L4/5 autonomy.
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      05-02-2019, 11:32 AM   #1785
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Would also add that TSLA is probably 2-3 years ahead of BMW on L4/5 autonomy.
What's the legal status on that anyway? How many Tesla's sell with the upgrade for auto pilot? Genuinely don't know. I have no interest in it personally but I'd imagine an LA commute would get me thinking differently.

I also agree that if you're driving a 320i to work and back you may as well get an electric and save money and emissions.

But from where I'm sitting, pending a gas crisis, electrics are doomed to be a niche market like sports cars, and soon a very crowded one.

Look at Roadsters. Miata led to everybody making one. Merc and Nissan cancelled there's this year, BMW and Mazda both co developed there's and porsche.

Could be electrics in 20 years if gas stays cheap, hydrogen works out, or whatever and electrics end up being a trendy fad.
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      05-02-2019, 12:01 PM   #1786
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What's the legal status on that anyway? How many Tesla's sell with the upgrade for auto pilot? Genuinely don't know. I have no interest in it personally but I'd imagine an LA commute would get me thinking differently.

I also agree that if you're driving a 320i to work and back you may as well get an electric and save money and emissions.

But from where I'm sitting, pending a gas crisis, electrics are doomed to be a niche market like sports cars, and soon a very crowded one.

Look at Roadsters. Miata led to everybody making one. Merc and Nissan cancelled there's this year, BMW and Mazda both co developed there's and porsche.

Could be electrics in 20 years if gas stays cheap, hydrogen works out, or whatever and electrics end up being a trendy fad.
This isn't meant to be a diminutive question - have you driven a Model S or Model 3? Particularly one with HW3? If not, do, I'd recommend. The whole ecosystem was a novelty to me until I did.

And for context, my other cars are a V8 RR (which replaced an F85 X5M) and an E46 M3 Wagon (conversion). I've owned a 1M and nearly every generation M3. I am very much a patrol head... but the next car that I buy to take my family from point A -> B will be a BEV.

The i3s that I've referenced was a steal ($250/month for 24 months) and I needed a station car (wagon now has weekend duty) — it's been a revelatory for me. IMHO, BEVs are the future* and the most successful BEVs will have a proper charging network. While 90% of my charging happens at home, it's annoying that I can't drive long distances with the BMW (perhaps that's a knock on range, more than charging network), there's simply no reliable charging network remotely close to Tesla's (both in scale and kWh delivery). Politically, carbon emissions are likely to get more, not less expensive, particularly as we learn the medium term consequences of fracking, etc. ICE isn't going anywhere any time soon, but it's hard to believe that we've grid-scaled nearly everything but transportation (I.e. utility based computing, electricity, etc.) — it's just strange that we produce 17 million small, inefficient power plants with no higher use than moving people around.

On the L4/5 autonomy, I think (and perhaps I'm in the minority) that we're not far from human drivers being deemed more dangerous than L5. I'd recommend watching Tesla's autonomy day (yes, there's some fluff); at this point, it's less about following/location recognition than replicating/improving the biomechanics of a human driver (it reads signs, recognizes objects, people, has seen a many million miles of snow covered roads, has predictive capability/doesn't rely on GPS, etc.), augmented with a more effective sensory array (more eyes, radar and sonar) and (if not, already) faster processing. Here too, having done the work of building their own chips (everyone else relies on Nvidia), they have an advantage. Their chips are designed specifically for their neural network and their training apparatus. On training, in every recent Tesla the AI is running and comparing it's behavior to the human driver (even with AP off), if they diverge, the entire catalogue of data/video is uploaded to Tesla for training. Tesla is getting millions and millions of real reps and edge cases. Many more than even most human drivers will ever see. Everyone else is relying on simulation - which is inherently imperfect. Many manufacturers will fight L5 — they know it's the beginning of the end of car ownership in the classic sense. This is Western Union vs. Bell. It's too disruptive to accept. The battle the incumbents are fighting is imaginative, they now adapt or die.

*I love that can precondition indoors, it's silent, instant torque, way less NVH. Driving a BEV for a while, my regular ICE vehicle's almost feel like they're broken ("why so much vibration?").

P.S. perhaps I'm just bitter they're killing manuals
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      05-02-2019, 12:36 PM   #1787
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Originally Posted by Roundown View Post
This isn't meant to be a diminutive question - have you driven a Model S or Model 3? Particularly one with HW3? If not, do, I'd recommend. The whole ecosystem was a novelty to me until I did.

And for context, my other cars are a V8 RR (which replaced an F85 X5M) and an E46 M3 Wagon (conversion). I've owned a 1M and nearly every generation M3. I am very much a patrol head... but the next car that I buy to take my family from point A -> B will be a BEV.

The i3s that I've referenced was a steal ($250/month for 24 months) and I needed a station car (wagon now has weekend duty) — it's been a revelatory for me. IMHO, BEVs are the future* and the most successful BEVs will have a proper charging network. While 90% of my charging happens at home, it's annoying that I can't drive long distances with the BMW (perhaps that's a knock on range, more than charging network), there's simply no reliable charging network remotely close to Tesla's (both in scale and kWh delivery). Politically, carbon emissions are likely to get more, not less expensive, particularly as we learn the medium term consequences of fracking, etc. ICE isn't going anywhere any time soon, but it's hard to believe that we've grid-scaled nearly everything but transportation (I.e. utility based computing, electricity, etc.) — it's just strange that we produce 17 million small, inefficient power plants with no higher use than moving people around.

On the L4/5 autonomy, I think (and perhaps I'm in the minority) that we're not far from human drivers being deemed more dangerous than L5. I'd recommend watching Tesla's autonomy day (yes, there's some fluff); at this point, it's less about following/location recognition than replicating/improving the biomechanics of a human driver (it reads signs, recognizes objects, people, has seen a many million miles of snow covered roads, has predictive capability/doesn't rely on GPS, etc.), augmented with a more effective sensory array (more eyes, radar and sonar) and (if not, already) faster processing. Here too, having done the work of building their own chips (everyone else relies on Nvidia), they have an advantage. Their chips are designed specifically for their neural network and their training apparatus. On training, in every recent Tesla the AI is running and comparing it's behavior to the human driver (even with AP off), if they diverge, the entire catalogue of data/video is uploaded to Tesla for training. Tesla is getting millions and millions of real reps and edge cases. Many more than even most human drivers will ever see. Everyone else is relying on simulation - which is inherently imperfect. Many manufacturers will fight L5 — they know it's the beginning of the end of car ownership in the classic sense. This is Western Union vs. Bell. It's too disruptive to accept. The battle the incumbents are fighting is imaginative, they now adapt or die.

*I love that can precondition indoors, it's silent, instant torque, way less NVH. Driving a BEV for a while, my regular ICE vehicle's almost feel like they're broken ("why so much vibration?").

P.S. perhaps I'm just bitter they're killing manuals
Ill test drive a Tesla eventually, I have a shop nearby it's just a matter of doing it.

If everybody switches to electric that's sort of a win for sports cars IMO because then the need for regulations forcing them to reduce emissions go away as they become hobby and pleasure focused. Nobody minds small scale cars driving for fun, it's daily commuting that's taking a toll.

Likewise I'm interested in hybrid sports cars. I don't think electric is there yet but you never know.
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      05-02-2019, 12:49 PM   #1788
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Ill test drive a Tesla eventually, I have a shop nearby it's just a matter of doing it.

If everybody switches to electric that's sort of a win for sports cars IMO because then the need for regulations forcing them to reduce emissions go away as they become hobby and pleasure focused. Nobody minds small scale cars driving for fun, it's daily commuting that's taking a toll.

Likewise I'm interested in hybrid sports cars. I don't think electric is there yet but you never know.
Totally agree re: hobby-ization if sports cars.

Re: BEV sports cars... https://www.tesla.com/roadster

A bit pricey for me, but if they make one half as good for half the money, I'm in.
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      05-02-2019, 03:15 PM   #1789
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Totally agree re: hobby-ization if sports cars.

Re: BEV sports cars... https://www.tesla.com/roadster

A bit pricey for me, but if they make one half as good for half the money, I'm in.
I'm still considering the old Tesla Roadster tbh. I'm going to buy a 3rd car and a roadster in year or two an it's on my list. I'm too young to buy a car worth THAT price though for the new one.
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      05-02-2019, 06:50 PM   #1790
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This idiot is on crack...

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Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company
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      05-02-2019, 07:45 PM   #1791
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This idiot is on crack...
Crack is the most docile drug in that cocktail
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      05-03-2019, 07:54 AM   #1792
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Would also add that TSLA is probably 2-3 years ahead of BMW on L4/5 autonomy.
Based on what?
I'm sure the reality is opposite and Tesla might never be able to reach level 5, or even 4. BMW have 2000 people working on autonomity and also cooperate with Mobileye and others. Tesla are all alone.

I think you are confused by the fact that Tesla uses Tesla drivers as testers and comparetheir tech with what BMW has live. I'm quite sure BMW is far far ahead in their research lab.
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      05-03-2019, 10:20 AM   #1793
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Quote:
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Would also add that TSLA is probably 2-3 years ahead of BMW on L4/5 autonomy.
Based on what?
I'm sure the reality is opposite and Tesla might never be able to reach level 5, or even 4. BMW have 2000 people working on autonomity and also cooperate with Mobileye and others. Tesla are all alone.

I think you are confused by the fact that Tesla uses Tesla drivers as testers and comparetheir tech with what BMW has live. I'm quite sure BMW is far far ahead in their research lab.
BMW doesn't have 2000 people doing anything in R&D. They charging for scale - that means subcontracting and resource sharing for R&D (i.e. research partnerships). That may be the efficient way to do things, but it's not the fastest, nor does it produce the 'best' product.

The market (and I don't necessarily agree with this) allows Tesla to light money on fire — BMW is held to a different standard as a mature company.

Could you imagine BMW announcing a massive annual loss because they're plowing money into a battery factory, completely custom chip and bleeding edge AI R&D?

Tesla has literally managed to lure some of the earliest/best AI pioneers on the promise of complete control and budget only constrained by what the market is/was willing to lend them.

IMHO, BMW and MB will eventually merge — they're already coordinating on next generation platforms/architectures/use the same suppliers and need more scale to compete with VAG, Toyota and the growing Indian and Chinese conglomerates.

The United States *seems* to still be better at creative destruction; TSLA will eat some of the incumbents and others will reverse merge with them (see Ford investment in Rivian) as the entire auto industry evolves into a pure autonomy play.
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      05-03-2019, 10:43 AM   #1794
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Folks, Tesla is building cars and selling them. They are doing just fine. Plenty of people are willing to invest in Tesla. It is not for everyone. Let the haters hate, they have nothing better to do. Buy it don't buy it who cares.

Even if BEVs don't catch on with other manufacturers, Tesla owners are still fine driving all over the World with this mature and growing charging network. Those who have a BEV can still rent for occasional off road trail. Those with multiple cars in family can have both BEV and Petro.

Building cars and selling them isn't a sustainable business on its own. They continue to lose money and yesterday announced they are taking actions to raise another $2.3 billion. Selling 3.1 million shares means the value attached to each share (what you own with each share) just went down. I guess it depends on what you mean by "doing just fine".
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      05-03-2019, 11:59 AM   #1795
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Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
I remember these posts about Amazon.
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      05-03-2019, 12:02 PM   #1796
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Quote:
Originally Posted by openwheelracing View Post
Folks, Tesla is building cars and selling them. They are doing just fine. Plenty of people are willing to invest in Tesla. It is not for everyone. Let the haters hate, they have nothing better to do. Buy it don't buy it who cares.

Even if BEVs don't catch on with other manufacturers, Tesla owners are still fine driving all over the World with this mature and growing charging network. Those who have a BEV can still rent for occasional off road trail. Those with multiple cars in family can have both BEV and Petro.

Building cars and selling them isn't a sustainable business on its own. They continue to lose money and yesterday announced they are taking actions to raise another $2.3 billion. Selling 3.1 million shares means the value attached to each share (what you own with each share) just went down. I guess it depends on what you mean by "doing just fine".
They're making enormous and bleeding-edge capital investment. The fact that they were profitable even for a quarter is a miracle. Comparing a mature car company with TSLA is missing the point - people view and invest in each for different reasons.

I for one can't figure out why Uber will IPO with 2x the market cap of TSLA when it's basically a race toward who has better autonomy/vertical integration. A ride hailing app is the easy part.
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      05-03-2019, 12:42 PM   #1797
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Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
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Originally Posted by Roundown View Post
I remember these posts about Amazon.
I remember these posts about Nortel.
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      05-03-2019, 12:45 PM   #1798
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Originally Posted by .2pdk View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
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Originally Posted by Roundown View Post
I remember these posts about Amazon.
I remember these posts about Nortel.
Touché - but TSLA's (admittedly nosebleed) valuation has never been afforded the extremes that Nortel, et al saw in late 1999/early 2000.
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      05-03-2019, 06:26 PM   #1799
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roundown View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
I remember these posts about Amazon.
Amazon is also a money losing scheme..
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      05-03-2019, 06:31 PM   #1800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roundown View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
I remember these posts about Amazon.
Amazon is also a money losing scheme..
There's a difference between 'losing money' and reinvesting profits/making capital expenditure. Amazon has created enormous enterprise value through those investments. Something often forgotten in an age when most companies seem to have no higher use for their capital than to return it to shareholders.
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      05-03-2019, 07:07 PM   #1801
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Something often forgotten in an age when most companies seem to have no higher use for their capital than to return it to shareholders.
Peak capitalism?
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      05-03-2019, 07:14 PM   #1802
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Something often forgotten in an age when most companies seem to have no higher use for their capital than to return it to shareholders.
Peak capitalism?
Perhaps or perhaps a sign that it's a bit out of whack.

The textbooks would say that investors seek to see that their capital is deployed to its highest commercial use; invested in property, plant and equipment such that the value of the whole exceeds that of the sum of the parts.

Exactly what Musk is doing.

When a company borrows money to buy its own stock, it's adjusting its capital structure to maximize a tax deduction OR if its simply returning capital, it sees no ability to invest at a greater IRR than the broader economy.
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      05-03-2019, 08:58 PM   #1803
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Originally Posted by .2pdk View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roundown View Post
Something often forgotten in an age when most companies seem to have no higher use for their capital than to return it to shareholders.
Peak capitalism?
More likely a sign that it's a bit out of whack.

The textbooks would say that investors seek to see that their capital is deployed to its highest commercial use; invested in property, plant and equipment such that the value of the whole exceeds that of the sum of the parts.

Exactly what Musk is doing.

When a company borrows money to buy its own stock, it's adjusting its capital structure to maximize a tax deduction OR if its simply returning capital, it sees no ability to invest at a greater IRR than the broader economy.
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      05-05-2019, 11:01 AM   #1804
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I find the Tesla to Amazon comparisons really strange. Amazon has created a business that I can't see anyone duplicating anytime soon and Tesla obviously has many competitors either out now or soon to be out that have many advantages over Tesla (distribution, profitable businesses, worldwide operations, huge plants and staff, etc)
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