When is the rolex bubble going to pop?

[monterey]

Prices are starting to get stupidity high. I'm still waiting to get a batman but everytime I look it's another grand higher!

[Duck Sauce]

It's ridiculous. I was in Aruba and stopped in to see what they had. The manager ended up talking to me for an hour saying that they couldn't even keep a Sub in stock for more than a day. They had 3 GMTs but all weren't to my liking. I'm naturally holding out for a Pepsi. He said late April/May time frame we should see a significant uptick in inventory. I doubt it'll dent the market much though.

[ASAP]

i think at basel, there will be some announcement; after that inventory should go up... albeit, I don't exactly expect these watches to suddenly be below msrp

[wichitagreg]

It's funny.

I've been on the Internet since the beginning. I'm 65 years old and have been a member of many discussion boards.

I do not think I have ever seen a post talking about the cost/price of a Rolex.

Most of what I see/do is try to save a buck by gutting the cats out of a Harley header. Or a DIY brake fluid swap on a ABS equipped Harley.

Now admittedly Harley leaves a lot of HP and TQ on the table due to EPA rules, and we/I like to recover that by a new cam, headers, and a tune (Tuner hardware runs $500-$600 and the Dyno man will get $400 to $500). But one can code a BMW for $25 in hardware and $35 in software. Go figure. I don't know if one can self tune the motor ECM on the BMW.

But this owning a BMW is sure a different animal. I do like reading post from around the world by folks that are moderately wealthy. I live on $3600 a month and consider myself "comfortable."

[Lightfytr]

One heck of a hijack Wichitagreg! 😂

I expect the prices to come down to msrp or slightly below and for inventory to come back up. But Rolex will continue to make their money, the brand isn’t going anywhere. Probably the most faked brand but everyone still wants one.

[Grumpy Old Man]

This post got me looking at used Rolex's out of curiosity. I bought my Seadweller 25 years ago for $3000, it looks like used they are over $10K now...crazy. And the Comex version is over $100K, I had a friend that worked on the Comex project and had one of those watches, I know he sold it back in the late 80's, I should send him the ad, he'd lose his mind.

[wichitagreg]

Originally Posted by Lightfytr

One heck of a hijack Wichitagreg! 😂

I expect the prices to come down to msrp or slightly below and for inventory to come back up. But Rolex will continue to make their money, the brand isn’t going anywhere. Probably the most faked brand but everyone still wants one.

Sorry 'bout that. Won't happen again. ///M <<<+)))

[The Libertine]

Prices of 6-digit ceramic models are crazy enough. 5-digit models are where deals can still be found and will continue to see an increase in value.

[TheWatchGuy]

well the batman is going to keep going higher. Rolex has announced it is being discontinued for the time being.

Prices typically fall spring/early summer, then start going back up late summer/fall.

All dependent on any major rolex announcements of course. If they come back with "SS Sport models wont be limited moving forward" expect prices to drop back to pre "SS Models will be limited" announcement last year.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

well the batman is going to keep going higher. Rolex has announced it is being discontinued for the time being.

Prices typically fall spring/early summer, then start going back up late summer/fall.

All dependent on any major rolex announcements of course. If they come back with "SS Sport models wont be limited moving forward" expect prices to drop back to pre "SS Models will be limited" announcement last year.

what sort of price inpact did those latter comments have?

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by ASAP

what sort of price inpact did those latter comments have?

last year when they announced SS Sport model availability was going to be limited, secondary market prices went up significantly. If they say they are going to be more available, look for them to drop.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

last year when they announced SS Sport model availability was going to be limited, secondary market prices went up significantly. If they say they are going to be more available, look for them to drop.

right, I mean like what % impact?

[bigdaveindubai]

If you have to worry about a price of a Rolex you dont need one. With that said, Dubai has had the lowest prices on Rolex I have ever seen. Go to the gold souq on old baladiya and bin hamoodah.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by ASAP

right, I mean like what % impact?

5-10% or so initially. just guessing though based on what prices were before the "limited stock" was announced

[shay2nak]

I was just browsing one of the well known online dealers and I can't believe the prices now. Amazing. The DaytonaC is over $20k now, Batman was 14k and Snoopy SM Over $25k. Ridiculous. If people don't buy they will have to drop the prices.

[Nivarox]

I don't know when prices get back to normal but I don't see it in upcoming years unless Rolex massively increases volume of its stainless steel models which is not on the cards given number of production of those models in recent years . I couldn't believe my Rolex Daytona 116500 LN got that much , what an investment Albeit it's said that watches are not for investments I think Rolex's stainless steel models at least some of them breaks this unscripted rule for good

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

well the batman is going to keep going higher. Rolex has announced it is being discontinued for the time being.

Prices typically fall spring/early summer, then start going back up late summer/fall.

All dependent on any major rolex announcements of course. If they come back with "SS Sport models wont be limited moving forward" expect prices to drop back to pre "SS Models will be limited" announcement last year.

This has not been announced. There has been a ridiculous amount of speculation and hearsay about what they are going to do with the BLNR. In reality, no one knows and likely won't until Basel. For every person who has it on "good authority" that's it being discontinued, another says they have it on "good authority" that they won't be discontinued. Some say they will change the movement....no one knows.

That is what has been fueling prices even in the last 2-3 weeks for those.

The bubble? Not likely to stop for awhile as there are MANY MANY more posts about waiting 1-2 years than there are waiting 1-2 months. Social media is definitely playing a part in the "perceived" availability (whether real or hysteria) of SS models.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by mjr24

This has not been announced. There has been a ridiculous amount of speculation and hearsay about what they are going to do with the BLNR. In reality, no one knows and likely won't until Basel. For every person who has it on "good authority" that's it being discontinued, another says they have it on "good authority" that they won't be discontinued. Some say they will change the movement....no one knows.

That is what has been fueling prices even in the last 2-3 weeks for those.

The bubble? Not likely to stop for awhile as there are MANY MANY more posts about waiting 1-2 years than there are waiting 1-2 months. Social media is definitely playing a part in the "perceived" availability (whether real or hysteria) of SS models.

It's been removed from here
https://m.rolex.com/watches/configure.html#/

It has also been removed from the ad catalogs for 2019.

This is how they "announce" it. They don't typically say "x watch will be gone" they just quietly remove it.

The speculation is on what the ln and blnr get replaced with. That is what we will find out at basel.

As for the availability, rolex told its ads to expect more limited quantities. As far as waitlists go, that's ad dependent. Spend a bunch at your ad, your wait is going to be much shorter than someone who walks off the street wanting to be on the waitlist.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

It's been removed from here
https://m.rolex.com/watches/configure.html#/

It has also been removed from the ad catalogs for 2019.

This is how they "announce" it. They don't typically say "x watch will be gone" they just quietly remove it.

The speculation is on what the ln and blnr get replaced with. That is what we will find out at basel.

As for the availability, rolex told its ads to expect more limited quantities. As far as waitlists go, that's ad dependent. Spend a bunch at your ad, your wait is going to be much shorter than someone who walks off the street wanting to be on the waitlist.

The LN as in the regular Sub date?

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by ASAP

The LN as in the regular Sub date?

the gmt. 116710ln

rumor is they will re-release with their new GMT movement but just a rumor right now

[hooligan_G01]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

5-10% or so initially. just guessing though based on what prices were before the "limited stock" was announced

Yep, 8-10% was going to be my guess, based on the same rationale.

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

the gmt. 116710ln

rumor is they will re-release with their new GMT movement but just a rumor right now

Only Rolex knows what it will eventually do.