Complete collapse of the used car market?

[Gray_Panther]

Originally Posted by GERMAN M3

Pricing has definitely increased. Here is a used 2019 Golf R with 9000 miles on the clock going for $45,000!
Insane!

http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/213077f8

Over retail for a one year old mass produced vehicle is out of this world ridiculous!

It just makes me wonder if the auto industry will crash or just steadily decline over time.

[chassis]

China manufacturing activity is ready to surpass pre-pandemic levels. The global economy is getting back into gear, consumer demand is picking up, including in the US, including for vehicles.

The automotive production shutdown and so-called "glut" of off-lease vehicle inventory seems to be netting out to be tight (low amount of) inventory. Combined with brisk demand, strong pricing seems to be the order of the day.

I'm not expecting a price crash in my target vehicle searches - recent model German four door hot rods.

[R N M]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

You cannot have this many people without work and not have consequences, if we do then fuck it, all economic theory can be turfed.

You do realize that unemployment level is at 10% not 50%.
Most of those that were let go are in low paying retail jobs, restaurant/fast food, hotels etc. These ppl are getting $600 more per week on top of unemployment. They are making more now then they were before.

There are literally lines outside my local Gucci, Louis Vuitton etc with mostly 20 something young adults buying $500 sneakers.

US is printing $$$!

[RM7]

I like the "great deal" I got in the mail from a bank I previously financed something else with: Pre approved to refinance for 4.5%! Wow, can't wait to go from my current 0% to 4.5, what a deal!

I don't know if the dealerships are still doing the 0% they were a few months ago, but I'm glad I got in on it.

[chassis]

The US Federal govt just released price inflation data and used vehicle prices jumped. Also on Manheim’s front page is a chart showing strength in used car prices.

Anecdotally, the local MB dealer’s on site inventory is thin, and they told me they “can’t get vehicles” from MB. This comment, if true, puts upward pressure on prices.

Time to stick a fork in the idea of a price crash for high performance German four door models?

[dmk08]

Try buying a 2016-2018 F80 M3 and then tell me the used market is down. lol

[Firaxis]

Originally Posted by GERMAN M3

Pricing has definitely increased. Here is a used 2019 Golf R with 9000 miles on the clock going for $45,000!
Insane!

http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/213077f8

Same here, the F30's / F20's with the 40i variant are becoming rarer by the second and increasing drastically in price. A 2 YO 340i Shadow Ed is going for around $39K (that's if you can get one)..

A year ago you'd be looking at 31K / 32? Not utterly surprising with the cost / inadequate deals on the G20..

[NickyC]

The used car market is insane right now. I’ve been looking into used GT4s, M4 CSs, or C7 Z06s and nobody is dealing in anything. The Z06 especially seems to have sky rocketed, all of this is just crazy.

When the slightest word got out I might be considering selling my M4 (I foolishly filled out a send me your best price thing for a GT4 on Autotrader and listed my trade in), I immediately started getting cash offers from dealers for what I could have expected from a private sale just a couple months ago.

I don’t get any of this. Car prices exploding, housing prices exploding, and millions upon millions out of work and crushed businesses. I guess all those printed trillions have to go somewhere but who the hell is buying? Obviously buyers are out there to justify all this, but I just can’t help but feel it’s a terrible time to buy a used car. It seems buying new is the best deal now!

As as example, you can find brand new 2020 Supras for like $47k sitting on dealer lots right now. That might be the best deal going.

[VisualEcho]

Not sure about the discussion here, but I recently sold my mom's 2009 Accord that was in not-so-great condition, to a local dealer that gave me nearly retail for it. I was dumbfounded. I hated to do it, but I had to ask why he was giving me so much for the car. He said he couldn't keep cars, that he's had "tax return months" for APR/MAY/JUN/JULY, just insane sales.

Things that make you go hmmm...

[Alfisti]

I'm a bit discouraged, i don't want prices to tank as that hurts people but increasing so much, i may have to stay on the sidelines.

[chassis]

In my search windows, if I change the trim level to base- or mid-level, inventory is plentiful and prices seem reasonable. Sensible cars.

It's the highest performance models in my searches that are firm and slightly increasing in price, with low inventory. Fun cars.

[dmk08]

On top of used prices actually being up right now it seems like the dealers and banks are working together to make it harder for people who cant pay cash to buy from other private parties.

For example if you go to Lightstream for a loan for a used car from a dealer you can get sub 4% easily. To buy from a PP they start at 5.69% even with top tier

[David70]

Originally Posted by dmk08

On top of used prices actually being up right now it seems like the dealers and banks are working together to make it harder for people who cant pay cash to buy from other private parties.

For example if you go to Lightstream for a loan for a used car from a dealer you can get sub 4% easily. To buy from a PP they start at 5.69% even with top tier

I am highly skeptical of massive collusion between banks and dealers to push loans through dealers and showing an example of a bank offering different rates doesn't prove anything. There's a ton of banks and credit unions that don't have the dealer channels and not sure how you would get them to raise their rates and you would have to get everyone involved to make it work. Seeing that Lightstream has different rates for dealer or private party rates doesn't mean there is mass collusion and they also list a wide range or rates for both and I can't tell what you would actually walk away with.

I think one issue with banks and private vs. dealer rates is the paperwork and risk is likely higher with a private party sale. Private party seller has a much easier time of disappearing with the money.

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by David70

I am highly skeptical of massive collusion between banks and dealers to push loans through dealers and showing an example of a bank offering different rates doesn't prove anything. There's a ton of banks and credit unions that don't have the dealer channels and not sure how you would get them to raise their rates and you would have to get everyone involved to make it work. Seeing that Lightstream has different rates for dealer or private party rates doesn't mean there is mass collusion and they also list a wide range or rates for both and I can't tell what you would actually walk away with.

I think one issue with banks and private vs. dealer rates is the paperwork and risk is likely higher with a private party sale. Private party seller has a much easier time of disappearing with the money.

It seems pretty common at all banks right now.

I have bought over 30 used cars most of them from private parties. The current situation isnt the status quo.

Maybe it isnt massive collusion but for whatever reason they dont want to lend money on PP cars.

Im buying a car cash right now because of the poor rates.

[jmhumr]

I'm not noticing any of this. Currently shopping for a Volvo or Acura SUV and the former is offering 0% on certified and the latter is offering 1.49% on certified. Prices of the certified cars don't appear abnormal and I've heard you can drive a hard bargain right now.

[BMWCCA1]

Originally Posted by David70

I think one issue with banks and private vs. dealer rates is the paperwork and risk is likely higher with a private party sale. Private party seller has a much easier time of disappearing with the money.

That's just silly.

Banks give a lower rate to dealerships so the dealer will turn business their way. Dealers won't do this without making something on the transaction, that's why they either have a reserve the bank pays them, or they make a point or two over the bank rate. Consumers can usually beat those rates through a credit union, anyway. But banks don't have a higher risk with private sales since they will never give a buyer money without a title. The private seller has no opportunity to abscond with the funds. The loan is between the bank's customer and the bank—not the seller and the bank.

[Soul_Glo]

Yesterday, I went into a stealership to make an enquiry on a CPO car. Having done my research and obtained valuation figures the car was overpriced by a whopping $3000! The CSA refused to budge. He said they were holding on to the stock they do have and sticking to their price no matter what. I walked away. I then tried another dealership and they were much more amenable to negotiation.

I was like: do you guys want to sell cars already or not?

It gives me some uneducated idea as to the situation. Some franchises are doing better than others or have changed their business model to keep selling cars. Others are sat on depreciating assets sticking to their guns. I think they might end up worse off because then your reputation is down and you have mostly old stock.

[3GFX]

Subbing.

Would love to see an E55 wagon or ATS V come down in price hehe

[BMWCCA1]

I'm sure you understand that a true manufacturer's CPO warranty costs the dealership often $2,500 just to enter the vehicle in that program for the extra warranty. That doesn't include the cost of meeting the CPO standards. We often throw away perfectly good, sometimes new, tires because they have to be original equipment standard on a CPO car. Not to mention updating services is not covered even by the manufacturer's Maintenance Program if the dealer is bringing service up-to-date for CPO. Likewise standards for brake pad and rotor condition are beyond the point that (BMW) maintenance program would cover.

A lease return on a BMW comes into a dealership with new non-OE tires, brakes at 25%, and due for coolant flush and oil change, the tires have to be tossed in favor of BMW-spec tires (star cast-in sidewall) and all services are done at dealer expense before CPO is attached. Same car gets picked up by a used-car lot from an auction after being turned down by the franchise store, they wash it, state-inspect it, and put it on the lot. Even CarMax with their useless "Certification" claim doesn't have to do what a franchise dealership must to call a car CPO. This is true for BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, you name it. It's expensive, but you get a manufacturer's warranty coverage. There's a difference.

[MJBO]

Originally Posted by dmk08

I made an offer on an X5 35d about 3 weeks ago. They turned down my offer in a pretty rude manor. Wasn't even extreme about 10% off.

They have now lowered the same car naturally more than 10% off and it's still sitting on their lot.

Not sure the strategy....

Back in 2017 I made an offer to a private seller for their 2015 X5 M, they were asking way too much and there was six months on the warranty. As I recall it was listed for AU$125k, I offered $100k.

Well over a year later it was STILL for the sale, listed at $85k, it’s warranty long over, with barely any more kilometres on it.

[Alfisti]

Aussie prices are hilarious, if I ever return that's the one thing I will struggle with, car prices.

[yoshie]

Hoping to sell my 02 e46 m3 SMG soon. Hopefully it will move quickly. Hoping to get a boat to make it though the rest of the pandemic with. I