Pandemic product shortages

[Kilabyte]

Adding PC parts to what's already been mentioned.

I was on a waiting list for ~6 months to get a new high end graphics card. Once secured I could have turned around and listed in to Ebay for more than double and it would have sold within an hour.

[ryan stewart]

Originally Posted by 6oclockshadow

People were getting up to $1200 a week for over a year in unemployment benefits up until September 3 to stay home. And then the rent/mortgage moratoriums, utility bill moratoriums, child tax credits.....it goes on.

Most of the jobs that arent foodservice were $39k and above. Those benefits werent keeping the dock worker or the trucker from delivering your washing machine or your house from being built.

I know a bunch of food service people and its a couple of things. One, most were YOUNG and could go back home to figure things out. A lot changed careers during covid because they didnt want to wait for foodservice to come back to full strength. And these arent buger flippers, most were younger women working in nicer places so they weren't making minimum wage. Good money, but they didnt want the instability that is that industry right now. You dont know if youre going to have a good shift or not.

Of the couple dozen or so I know only a few went back into the service industry (LOL one went to Only Fans...), the rest went corporate. Upper 20s so I think it just hastened the "time to get a big girl job" thought process.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tommy-G

I just dont get how people are surviving not working

I wonder the same. I get that some young people said screw it and went back to live with their helicopter parents and that others went back to school. But a vast majority don't have these options. Most of them cannot be independently wealthy and I would think most live paycheck to paycheck.

Like others pointed out, I help signs everywhere. My 16 y/o son had no issues at all getting a job at a really nice grocery a couple months back and they constantly tell him how thankful they are that he shows up (not on time, just shows up to work!) and that he works hard while there. I never got that when working my jobs in high school.

[UncleWede]

Laptops with a wireless carrier card (6-8 weeks)
Black Box KM switch (now scheduled for 12/10 to drop ship)

Sugar free (NOT diet, don' shame me) soda of almost any kind, especially those without caffeine.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

So what happens to our consumer driven economy when people just say "F it" and dont want to tie their cash up for a year waiting for that sectional, bicycle, or computer. They decide instead to just live with what they have for another year while this mess sorts itself out. it's only a matter of time before the companies that have these insane lead times find their customer base drying up and sitting this out. Then we are in for the real economic crisis. This shit here, now, this is just act 2. First was plants all over the world shut down for COVID, leading to the shortages in raw materials and components. Now that global inventory of those raw materials and components are dried up, we see extended lead times in the consumer facing finished products. We are in some serious shit here. Not sure folks are seeing that yet.

I somewhat agree though I don't think we're going to see some massive collapse. I work in M&A and supply chain issues are an issue with the deals I've worked on over the last 6 months, but not at the levels to be significantly impacting most businesses. Most business seem to say we're probably in this from another 3 to 6 months. Some areas worse off than others.

The biggest hurdles I see over the next 6 months are:

- Present day supply chain design. Meaning, the practice of maintaining slim inventory to manage costs/overhead/warehousing/transport/etc. It doesn't work well at all during these type of catastrophic events like pandemics and other natural disasters.

- China's Zero COVID strategy. It's not reasonable or sustainable. Either China knows something more about COVID they're not telling the world (somewhat joking here) or they need to dump the Zero COVID strategy like every other country. Shutting down ports, manufacturing plants, etc. for one COVID case will be the economic death of China and will continue to create havoc across the global economy.

[2000cs]

This is all bearable, but if the liquor store has empty shelves, that’ll start a riot.

[UncleWede]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

This is all bearable, but if the liquor store has empty shelves, that’ll start a riot.

What will you riot with, a .22 rifle CLUB?

#stockpilingammo

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

What will you riot with, a .22 rifle CLUB?

#stockpilingammo

I’m not planning to riot, but if liquor stores are empty I expect torches and pitchforks will do for those who choose that path. Me, I’ll be mixing in the bathtub (and thankfully we have a jacuzzi so volume!).

[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

People have options. The TV market expects buyers to go up in price/features/size to get a new TV, some lateral movement across brands also is possible. Other substitutions, and deferring purchases, are options for most other products. If you have to have a M8 exactly as configured, well you were going to have to wait anyway.

The difficult areas will be necessities, from fuel to food. We’re not preppers but we’re keeping more staples, soups etc than normal because we keep reading about potential shortages and seeing hints they may be coming (fresh fruit is short now, for example, and meat comes and goes). We are hoping the supply chains get moving again before any of this gets critical, but so far there is very little obvious progress.

And how about those prices for food and necessities? Costs for all the packaging and ingredients went up. Cost of pallets, costs of warehousing, cost of freight to ship all the components and the finished goods skyrocketed whether they are trucking rates or container rates. Put the fuel increase on top. Who do you think pays for that? The consumer of course.

I’ve been in domestic transportation for 31 years. I have never seen rates so high. It’s insane. There is way more freight than trucks and drivers to move said freight. Transportation costs have a huge impact in the cost of goods. Supply and demand 101, except I don’t see the supply getting any better anytime soon. Trucking companies are throwing money at driver in an effort to recruit but the guys that want to work just jump from company to company to get sign on bonuses or increased pay. The pool isn’t getting any bigger. Who wants to be a truck driver?

Unfortunately, I think the only thing that will change the current situation is inflation. When people can’t afford to purchase stuff, the demand will go down on transportation which will force the rates down when people complete for business again. But you can’t take back the increased wages to drivers.

I apologize for typos. This is a long post to do from my phone.

[upstatedoc]

No real shortage is that I've noticed. But five dollars for two rolls of paper towels? That's an out rage!

[rebekahb]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

This is all bearable, but if the liquor store has empty shelves, that'll start a riot.

Ive got enough liquor & wine to last me years. The one thing I'm truly not worried about

[kscarrol]

Hmmm.... Might have to track you down in case of emergency. I only have a 6-8 month supply!

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

What will you riot with, a .22 rifle CLUB?

#stockpilingammo

I dunno but I have a feeling the same people stock piling ammo would be the ones rioting when the liquor store shuts down... then again it might be a bunch of middle aged women outside total wine.

[rebekahb]

Originally Posted by kscarrol

Hmmm.... Might have to track you down in case of emergency. I only have a 6-8 month supply!

Sharing is caring!

Off topic but just said yes ma'am to the deli person who said uh ma'am I'm a sir. Fuck….speechless

[kscarrol]

Originally Posted by rebekahb

Sharing is caring!

Off topic but just said yes ma'am to the deli person who said uh ma'am I'm a sir. Fuck….speechless

Too funny!!

[kscarrol]

I mean the wine sat in the heat after Ida so all my good stuff needs to be drunk now! Multiple 1990 margauxs, great old California wines. Going to a great few months drinking it but my liver will hate me...

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by Tommy-G

What kind of things are you experiencing shortages with?
-We have no new cars (obviously) b/c of the chip issue
-I am running into lots of back order parts, regardless of manufacturer
-Back order tints for paint mixing

Even ordered a bed room set July 4th, scheduled to come in 9/12 and got a call it wouldn't be until 12/10 now. Even that Is sketchy I fear

Common sense seems in pretty short supply these days.

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

I dunno but I have a feeling the same people stock piling ammo would be the ones rioting when the liquor store shuts down... then again it might be a bunch of middle aged women outside total wine.

Are they rioting about red wine or white wine? Or Rosé…….

[kscarrol]

Originally Posted by Captain Blood

Are they rioting about red wine or white wine? Or Rosé…….

Yes and whisky, whiskey, rum Murf993....

[rebekahb]

Originally Posted by kscarrol

I mean the wine sat in the heat after Ida so all my good stuff needs to be drunk now! Multiple 1990 margauxs, great old California wines. Going to a great few months drinking it but my liver will hate me...

Oh damn, it is going to be a good few months. Slightly jealous. I don't have anything aged like that. I drink them to fast lol.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by cmyx6go

And how about those prices for food and necessities? Costs for all the packaging and ingredients went up. Cost of pallets, costs of warehousing, cost of freight to ship all the components and the finished goods skyrocketed whether they are trucking rates or container rates. Put the fuel increase on top. Who do you think pays for that? The consumer of course.

I’ve been in domestic transportation for 31 years. I have never seen rates so high. It’s insane. There is way more freight than trucks and drivers to move said freight. Transportation costs have a huge impact in the cost of goods. Supply and demand 101, except I don’t see the supply getting any better anytime soon. Trucking companies are throwing money at driver in an effort to recruit but the guys that want to work just jump from company to company to get sign on bonuses or increased pay. The pool isn’t getting any bigger. Who wants to be a truck driver?

Unfortunately, I think the only thing that will change the current situation is inflation. When people can’t afford to purchase stuff, the demand will go down on transportation which will force the rates down when people complete for business again. But you can’t take back the increased wages to drivers.

I apologize for typos. This is a long post to do from my phone.

You and I both know there's been a driver shortage on the horizon or 25 years. it's been a slow rolling problem on the horizon since the late 90s when I was just a wee young engineer at Freightliner. it's not like pay or conditions has gotten any better for drivers. Like you said "who wants to be a truck driver?" No one anymore, unfortunately.

While you are on the domestic side I'm now involved with International logistics for my company. Our cost for a 40' from China to the West coast has gone up 5X since COVID. And once the container arrived it sits on the boat for 2 weeks waiting to get unloaded, then it sits at the port for a week waiting or a chassis. it's nuts.

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I somewhat agree though I don't think we're going to see some massive collapse. I work in M&A and supply chain issues are an issue with the deals I've worked on over the last 6 months, but not at the levels to be significantly impacting most businesses.

I hope you are right but I fear you are wrong. My company just lost a multi-million $ deal on account of lead time and cost, mostly pushed by our inability to compete with larger companies and secure components at a reasonable cost.

Originally Posted by 2000cs

People have options. The TV market expects buyers to go up in price/features/size to get a new TV, some lateral movement across brands also is possible. Other substitutions, and deferring purchases, are options for most other products. If you have to have a M8 exactly as configured, well you were going to have to wait anyway.

That's just shuffling existing product inventory around. The TV you bought today was made 3-6 months ago using components Samsung bought 9 months ago that were manufactured by the chip supplier a year ago using raw materials that were mined 1.5 years ago. Companies like TI, ST Micro, etc who are making chips and shut their factories down at the start of COVID interjected a gap in the supplychain that the end consumer doesn't see for a year or more. I'm seeing manufacturer lead times of 16 to 53 weeks on micros. The tier 1 and 2 suppliers are out of inventory and the gray market distributors are now running low. Yes, the sub-component manufacturers are startign back up but they were all at capacity before COVID. There's no way to make up that shut-down window that's now hitting the end consumer end of the chain. The BIG guys like Samsung, Ford, and GE can buy direct from the factory and scoop up everything that's coming off the line, leaving millions of mid-market companies like mine without supply. That cant be good for the economy.

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

it's not like pay or conditions has gotten any better for drivers. Like you said "who wants to be a truck driver?" No one anymore, unfortunately.

In these parts (self-proclaimed logistics hub of the northeast), every trucking terminal and warehouse is also advertising (more like begging!) for forklift operators, pallet pushers, and order pickers...at well above minimum wage. Even if there were enough truck drivers, the stuff won't move itself once it reaches the terminal/warehouse docks!

I'm thinking that electronic "nanny" ELD laws have also taken all of the fun out of being a truck driver these days, which probably isn't helping in the recruitment process.....