BMW E60 5-Series Forum | 5Post.com  
BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read  

Go Back   BMW E60 5-Series Forum | 5Post.com > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      12-02-2020, 10:37 PM   #199
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11247
Rep
8,925
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fly320s View Post

I'm a commercial airline pilot. The thought of an autonomous drone flying passengers around ...
But isn't that what an Airbus is?

sadly that's now an utterly outdated Boeing vs Airbus joke
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      12-02-2020, 11:15 PM   #200
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11247
Rep
8,925
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
the FAA is even further behind. The FAA is very cautious and that translates in to glacial adoption of new technology.
Not really, 737 MAX. The FAA is a disaster right now and completely captured by industry / corporate interests - most of the people who actually understood aircraft design and operations left 10 years ago (when they realized they had no power except to go on airframe-paid boondoggles), and the 737 MAX is the crowning jewel to that failure - first time in history the FAA has lost the confidence of global aviation. The FAA will likely never recover that trust.

With that, the speed of regulatory changes will come down to the market size and profitability - if there's a lot of money in it, lobbyists will write those regs and jam them through congress (if needed) licketysplit. I used to work for the ATA and helped write and implement a major spec change to a 40 year old standard across all military and civil aviation for US, and civil aviation globally, and we did it in ~18 months. That change created a multi-billion $ industry with lots of DoD and government contracts Washington loves money.

If autonomous drones mean big corporate $$, unless we see some large government regulatory body reform, I'd be surprised if took more than 2 years. Probably < a year.

Example: space shit? no problem
WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of Transportation Elaine L. Chao today announced the publication of the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Streamlined Launch and Reentry Licensing Requirements Final Rule (PDF) for commercial space transportation launches and reentries.

“This historic, comprehensive update to commercial space launch and reentry licensing requirements facilitates greater growth in this industry and helps America to maintain our #1 position in the world,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao.

This rule modernizes the way FAA regulates and licenses commercial space operations and allows the burgeoning aerospace industry to continue to innovate and grow, while maintaining public safety.
Elon wants to fire off orbital rockets from Boca Chica Texas? Cool, cool.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 12-02-2020 at 11:26 PM..
Appreciate 0
      12-03-2020, 12:52 AM   #201
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11247
Rep
8,925
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Speaking of regulatory questions, Future Tense comes out swinging for Elon
The electric carmaker’s approach to autonomous vehicles is far too risky.

Safety and automotive leaders condemned Tesla for exposing its customers—and everyone else who shares the roads—to unnecessary risk. PAVE, a nonprofit providing education about autonomous vehicles, blasted the company for “using untrained consumers to validate beta-level software on public roads,” calling this “dangerous and inconsistent with existing guidance and industry norms.” An association representing truckers warned that “while [FSD] may be a fun experiment for Tesla’s customers, public roads are our members’ workplace.”

Faced with an obvious safety hazard and seemingly false advertising, you might expect federal officials to step in. Nope. Instead, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration promised merely to “monitor the new technology closely.” With an apparent regulatory green light, Tesla CEO Elon Musk claimed that FSD would be available nationwide by the end of this year.

ADAS nevertheless requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road and be ready to turn the steering wheel or apply the brakes if a problem arises. ... That kind of vigilance doesn’t jibe with a term like “Autopilot,” which suggests a vehicle that can operate independently. Indeed, European regulators bluntly concluded that “Tesla’s system name Autopilot is inappropriate as it suggests full automation.” Musk disagrees; he recently called the idea of changing it “idiotic.”

NHTSA should finally launch an investigation into Autopilot and FSD. The central question is whether the pattern of driver misuse of those technologies represents a defect, which could prompt a recall. The principle of “predictable abuse”—outlined in NHTSA guidance issued in 2016—provides a framework for such an investigation
How much do consumers want this stuff vs slap it on as a why-not option?

E.g., BMW has tons of these features - fairly close if not almost exactly like Tesla ... but if they didn't would people care? Is BMW a totally different market? Doesn't seem like it ... lots of people cross-shop BMW and Tesla and lots of people have both ...

Porsche, for example, kinda shies away from all this stuff, though granted Porsche sells fewer cars and may be more niche than Tesla.

Anyway, as someone config'ing a Porsche (I've almost given up on ordering the X5 45e) I can say I'm glad to be able to option it all off, though I would get it on the 45e if I go that route just to try it. My 2015 BMW had it all and I hated it, so my 2018 had none of it and I never missed it. That said, the auto-reverse stuff and the auto-park stuff seems pretty cool - highly unlikely I'd use any of the highway stuff.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      12-03-2020, 10:07 AM   #202
Efthreeoh
Lieutenant General
United_States
8105
Rep
15,138
Posts

Drives: E90 & Z4 Coupe
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MARLAND

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Not really, 737 MAX. The FAA is a disaster right now and completely captured by industry / corporate interests - most of the people who actually understood aircraft design and operations left 10 years ago (when they realized they had no power except to go on airframe-paid boondoggles), and the 737 MAX is the crowning jewel to that failure - first time in history the FAA has lost the confidence of global aviation. The FAA will likely never recover that trust.

With that, the speed of regulatory changes will come down to the market size and profitability - if there's a lot of money in it, lobbyists will write those regs and jam them through congress (if needed) licketysplit. I used to work for the ATA and helped write and implement a major spec change to a 40 year old standard across all military and civil aviation for US, and civil aviation globally, and we did it in ~18 months. That change created a multi-billion $ industry with lots of DoD and government contracts Washington loves money.

If autonomous drones mean big corporate $$, unless we see some large government regulatory body reform, I'd be surprised if took more than 2 years. Probably < a year.

Example: space shit? no problem
WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of Transportation Elaine L. Chao today announced the publication of the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Streamlined Launch and Reentry Licensing Requirements Final Rule (PDF) for commercial space transportation launches and reentries.

“This historic, comprehensive update to commercial space launch and reentry licensing requirements facilitates greater growth in this industry and helps America to maintain our #1 position in the world,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao.

This rule modernizes the way FAA regulates and licenses commercial space operations and allows the burgeoning aerospace industry to continue to innovate and grow, while maintaining public safety.
Elon wants to fire off orbital rockets from Boca Chica Texas? Cool, cool.
Grussy, not everything is on the internet.

Instances of falling space hardware are not equivalent to unmanned flying drones. Lol.

Last edited by Efthreeoh; 12-03-2020 at 10:38 AM..
Appreciate 0
      12-03-2020, 08:46 PM   #203
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11247
Rep
8,925
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Grussy, not everything is on the internet.

Instances of falling space hardware are not equivalent to unmanned flying drones. Lol.
From an FAA regulatory perspective, how so?

Also, heads up, Virgin Galactic may need your regulatory expertise ...
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      Yesterday, 05:42 AM   #204
KRS_SN
Major
1167
Rep
1,034
Posts

Drives: F15,F30, F34, E91.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Glasgow

iTrader: (0)

I watched elon musks axel springer interview.(my first time watching musk speak)
I was very impressed by his intelligence and honesty. I did secretly wonder if he was an Alien in a human body though.
Appreciate 0
      Yesterday, 06:33 AM   #205
Efthreeoh
Lieutenant General
United_States
8105
Rep
15,138
Posts

Drives: E90 & Z4 Coupe
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MARLAND

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
From an FAA regulatory perspective, how so?

Also, heads up, Virgin Galactic may need your regulatory expertise ...
NOTAMs
__________________
A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
Appreciate 0
      Today, 01:09 AM   #206
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11247
Rep
8,925
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
NOTAMs
As I said, if there's lots of money for multiple industries in pilotless drones, the regs will be updated to accommodate in ~18 months and the lobbyists will write them.

A great example is driverless vehicles, and you don't even have to talk about Tesla, Amazon, or the other Bigs:

Long-Haul Trucking
Alphabet subsidiary is now expanding its geographic footprint into Texas and New Mexico. ... Tests will be primarily along Interstates 10, 20, and 45 and through metropolitan areas like El Paso, Dallas, and Houston ... Demand for driverless trucks is strong. They are predicted to reach 6,700 units globally, totaling $54.23 billion this year, and stand to save the logistics and shipping industry $70 billion annually while boosting productivity by 30%
Retail
GM-backed autonomous vehicle startup Cruise today announced a partnership with Walmart to deliver orders from a Scottsdale, Arizona store to customers’ homes. As part of the pilot, which is scheduled to begin in early 2021, customers will be able to place orders from a Walmart store and have them delivered via one of Cruise’s electric self-driving Chevy Bolts. Earlier this year, Cruise announced a deal with DoorDash to test food and grocery delivery in San Francisco for select customers ... In November [2019 Walmart] teamed up with Postmates and Ford to deliver food, personal care items, and other goods from Walmart stores in Miami-Dade County, Florida using prototype self-driving cars. Walmart stores in Surprise, Arizona briefly trialed Udelv’s self-driving vans for deliveries. Nuro, which this week raised $500 million, collaborated with Walmart to deliver groceries to customers in Houston, Texas following a pilot in Scottsdale. And Walmart is working with Gatik to ferry customer orders between select store locations in Bentonville, Arkansas.
You can find a nice table of the current laws by state here.

The point is, all of those states (AZ, CA, TX, FL, etc) are all in on self-driving vechicles as are the feds and not only are these vehicles on the roads, but some companies like Nuro already have paying customers.

It's not lost on retail that the next battle will be over local retail self-delivery (long-haul trucking to local DCs to last-mile), and it's a place where Wal-Mart realizes it could beat Amazon ... and Nuro has already begun deliveries.

I've seen them around Mountain View delivering Walgreens stuff.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      Today, 02:19 AM   #207
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11247
Rep
8,925
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Back to Tesla, I think it's worth pointing out how far ahead their technology is ... and before anyone claims Tesla isn't that far ahead, don't take my word for it, listen to the CEO of VW:
31 senior executives from Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche were involved in ‘Mission T’, as it was dubbed. The event revolved around how we can catch up with Tesla – a company focused exclusively on the future, without a traditional car business. Its Silicon Valley-style ecosystem is influenced by software capabilities, focus on technology and risk culture. The workshop was held over three days – under special constraints with masks and social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The opening question was: “What do we have to achieve in the next six months to catch up with Tesla in terms of technology by 2024?
So the CEO of VAG pulled 31 execs from Audi, VW, Porsche together for THREE DAYS to ask how VAG can catch up to Tesla IN FOUR YEARS!

Yes, TSLA's stock price is batshit, but not THAT batshit! The VAG CEO thinks Tesla's technology is 4 years ahead of them.

Seems like a big deal.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      Today, 09:08 AM   #208
Efthreeoh
Lieutenant General
United_States
8105
Rep
15,138
Posts

Drives: E90 & Z4 Coupe
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MARLAND

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
As I said, if there's lots of money for multiple industries in pilotless drones, the regs will be updated to accommodate in ~18 months and the lobbyists will write them.

A great example is driverless vehicles, and you don't even have to talk about Tesla, Amazon, or the other Bigs:

Long-Haul Trucking
Alphabet subsidiary is now expanding its geographic footprint into Texas and New Mexico. ... Tests will be primarily along Interstates 10, 20, and 45 and through metropolitan areas like El Paso, Dallas, and Houston ... Demand for driverless trucks is strong. They are predicted to reach 6,700 units globally, totaling $54.23 billion this year, and stand to save the logistics and shipping industry $70 billion annually while boosting productivity by 30%
Retail
GM-backed autonomous vehicle startup Cruise today announced a partnership with Walmart to deliver orders from a Scottsdale, Arizona store to customers’ homes. As part of the pilot, which is scheduled to begin in early 2021, customers will be able to place orders from a Walmart store and have them delivered via one of Cruise’s electric self-driving Chevy Bolts. Earlier this year, Cruise announced a deal with DoorDash to test food and grocery delivery in San Francisco for select customers ... In November [2019 Walmart] teamed up with Postmates and Ford to deliver food, personal care items, and other goods from Walmart stores in Miami-Dade County, Florida using prototype self-driving cars. Walmart stores in Surprise, Arizona briefly trialed Udelv’s self-driving vans for deliveries. Nuro, which this week raised $500 million, collaborated with Walmart to deliver groceries to customers in Houston, Texas following a pilot in Scottsdale. And Walmart is working with Gatik to ferry customer orders between select store locations in Bentonville, Arkansas.
You can find a nice table of the current laws by state here.

The point is, all of those states (AZ, CA, TX, FL, etc) are all in on self-driving vechicles as are the feds and not only are these vehicles on the roads, but some companies like Nuro already have paying customers.

It's not lost on retail that the next battle will be over local retail self-delivery (long-haul trucking to local DCs to last-mile), and it's a place where Wal-Mart realizes it could beat Amazon ... and Nuro has already begun deliveries.

I've seen them around Mountain View delivering Walgreens stuff.
None of that crap has to do with airplanes. You have no idea what I am talking about regarding launching or falling space vehicles and airplanes.

But since you're stumped and have switched topics to autonomous ground transportation, as soon as one of those terrestrial based driverless delivery vehicles causes an accident with a school bus and kills 25 little kids or hits a transit bus and kills a bunch of lower socioeconomic passengers (read as mostly minorities), the PI lawyers and the Federal DOT will get involved and the economic picture for logistics companies will drastically change.

But back to aircraft...
States have a lot of autonomy in determining how they allow ground vehicle traffic to operate within their borders. In contrast, the FAA has jurisdiction over how aircraft fly in the national air space and states don't. Amazon started publishing commercials well over 4 years ago showing home delivery of small packages by drone, yet one of the largest companies in the world, owned by the most wealthiest man in the world, has not yet made one such commercial drone delivery. Yes, Amazon has made a few drone test flight deliveries in the DMV area, under different flight rules (as a airline operator), but there are no companies that have unlimited FAA approval to fly drones autonomously. There are a few entities that have waivers from the FAA for drone test flights, but they are limited in when and where they can fly.

Further, a FAA-certified drone surveillance system does not yet exist nor do drone operators have a FAA-certified command and control network set up that will allow drones to fly beyond RF line-of-sight control of their base station (i.e. remote pilot operator). None of that is going to be implemented in 2 years time as you believe. It would take at least a decade to develop, implement and certify the C&C system alone. Such a system will take hundreds of millions of dollars to build and even more to maintain and operate, yet no one, not even the Great Amazon Oz, has invested in such a network. The development of a private cost-share C&C network on the order of $1B to implement and operate over say a decade or two (once it is FAA certified) just to get the ROI back would be quite difficult to put together among the titans of the logistics industry. Oh, and then just remember how easy it is for the GPS system to be hacked in a local area, which fucks up the system timing that the C&C control software depends on. The FAA goes bat shit crazy when that kind of stuff happens; it hates when aircraft hit each other.

I could go on with further detail, but I'd probably violate my company's social media policy.
__________________
A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."

Last edited by Efthreeoh; Today at 09:25 AM..
Appreciate 1
KRS_SN1167.00

Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:54 PM.




5post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST