Supply Chain Issues Easing? Maybe Not...

[Chick Webb]

You've perhaps heard about some of the supply chain problems we've been having easing up a bit. Chips aren't quite so short as they were, for example. So maybe that bit of our supply-side driven inflation problem is behind us?

Yeah, not so fast. Coastwide contract talks between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and West Coast waterfront employers represented by the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) are going on right now. "Coastwide" in this context means ALL of the West Coast ports (Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Oakland, Hueneme, LA, Long Beach, San Diego). They are not the largest ports in the country, but much of the traffic from Asia comes to them due to proximity.

The current labor agreement expires July 1. If negotiations don't go well, and given past history there's little reason to believe they will, we could see work slowdowns, partial closures, and maybe even full closures of any/all of these in the coming months. The effect of that would not be helpful to the American consumer, to say the least.

[Tommy-G]

You're saying.....SLOWER than current?

Here's one for you....if I order parts from my local wholesale Honda dealer (30 miles away) and they have the parts on the shelf it will take me 5 days to get my order.
-Pull order from the shelf
-load them in a truck
-deliver them 30 miles away

Someone round up all these schleps that aren't working and sitting on their asses and ship them to some un-inhabited island
cmyx6go any East Coast input on this???

[RickFLM4]

We're still waiting for concrete roof tiles I ordered before Christmas. Fortunately, it sounds like they will be released to the roofer in 2 weeks.

Being told cement is in short supply and not expected to get better soon so lead time is expected to increase vs. what we experienced.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tommy-G

You're saying.....SLOWER than current?

It's certainly possible. The players in this game, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), don't have a good history of resolving negotiations without some disruption. Here's a good article on it - What You Need to Know About West Coast Ports Labor Negotiations

Since 60% of imports from Asia go through these ports, the potential for more supply delays is very real. The Biden administration is already heavily involved in the negotiations to avoid that, of course, due to the political fallout from an extended slowdown/shutdown. But they almost always end up walking out for at least a little while, so we'll see. In the end, they will remain the highest paid longshoremen on the planet, and the West Coast ports will be even more expensive to utilize.

Some buyers have already re-routed at least some of their product to Gulf and East Coast ports as a hedge. Of course, it takes much longer to get to those, burns more fuel, etc., and is thus more expensive. So one way or the other this is going to prop up prices for imports.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

are you in sales?

[wtwo3]

I ordered this Yucca plant for my office over a year ago in April of 2021. It's been delayed multiple times and current estimates put it at a November 2022 delivery, so basically a year and a half lead time (assuming no more delays, which I'd be surprised if there aren't more).

I'm convinced that once I receive this plant, supply chain issues will have been resolved for everyone. You heard it here first ladies and gents. The fate of the world's supply chain rests in the delivery of this Yucca plant to my office.

[///MPhatic]

Originally Posted by Tommy-G

Someone round up all these schleps that aren't working and sitting on their asses and ship them to some un-inhabited island

Don't get me started with the "work from home" useless crowd.

No damn work ethic in this country anymore.

[wtwo3]

Originally Posted by ///MPhatic

Don't get me started with the "work from home" useless crowd.

No damn work ethic in this country anymore.

Ok Elon

[ASAP]

So uhhhh... who is creating these fake supply issues? Because there is no reasonable understanding at this time why there are shortages... i've heard every excuse now including aliens.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by ///MPhatic

Don't get me started with the "work from home" useless crowd.

No damn work ethic in this country anymore.

Really? You mean lets all drive to the office, put miles on our cars, pollute the environment, drive up gas prices and sit in useless office spaces that could be used to help ease a housing shortage so that some middle manager can micro manage?

Yea... seems to me only that middle manager is worried about that.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by wtwo3

The fate of the world's supply chain rests in the delivery of this Yucca plant to my office.

Lol. You may be right. That said, they do sell live versions of those, you know....

[wtwo3]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Lol. You may be right. That said, they do sell live versions of those, you know....

I can't be trusted with live plants

[iminhell1]

You have food, water, housing, toiletries ....

I would say any gripes you have are quite trivial.

[rebekahb]

Originally Posted by wtwo3

I ordered this Yucca plant for my office over a year ago in April of 2021. It's been delayed multiple times and current estimates put it at a November 2022 delivery, so basically a year and a half lead time (assuming no more delays, which I'd be surprised if there aren't more).

I'm convinced that once I receive this plant, supply chain issues will have been resolved for everyone. You heard it here first ladies and gents. The fate of the world's supply chain rests in the delivery of this Yucca plant to my office.

Attachment 2903672

You posted about this a while back and I just laughed my ass off that your Yucca is still delayed. How is this possible? I didn't know the need for fake plants was so high A. Props for not cancelling your order B. I'm going to need to see an actual picture of this placed once it's arrived.

[CTinline-six]

Originally Posted by ///MPhatic

Don't get me started with the "work from home" useless crowd.

No damn work ethic in this country anymore.

You think those people work harder in the office?



Supply chains will be a thing for a while. My issue is with the companies who just suck and are blaming it on supply chain/the pandemic.

[NYG]

If a single contractor or sub-contractor used COVID or "supply chain" as an excuse to not deliver a project here in NYC within a reasonable time frame, all the way back to 2020, they would have went under and never got another job again.

It's a convenient excuse that will be used for a while by these garbage companies.

For every 1 company that is really struggling with this, 1,000 will b/s you about it.

[zx10guy]

Add the contrast dye used in CT scans to the items in short supply. Saw a news announcement that radiology departments are starting to ration the use of the contrast dye and in some cases diluting them to have a good enough image.

[OkieSnuffBox]

Originally Posted by ///MPhatic

Don't get me started with the "work from home" useless crowd.

No damn work ethic in this country anymore.

RRiiiiiiiiiiggggghht.

We've been working from home since March of 2020. Last year upper management asked us if we would rather continue WFH full-time, or go back to flex like we used to have. Where we were in the office 2-3 days per week.

Most said WFH full-time, so they said "OK," and closed our OKC office in October in of last year. We don't have a problem getting anything done. My fiance also WFH as well and has since the pandemic started for a few different companies.


It's a big advantage for companies as well because they are no longer limited only to employees that are local. That's why you're seeing tech companies do it and move their HQ's out of California because of costs.

[///MPhatic]

Originally Posted by wtwo3

Ok Elon

I wish.

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

RRiiiiiiiiiiggggghht.

We've been working from home since March of 2020. Last year upper management asked us if we would rather continue WFH full-time, or go back to flex like we used to have. Where we were in the office 2-3 days per week.

Most said WFH full-time, so they said "OK," and closed our OKC office in October in of last year. We don't have a problem getting anything done. My fiance also WFH as well and has since the pandemic started for a few different companies.


It's a big advantage for companies as well because they are no longer limited only to employees that are local. That's why you're seeing tech companies do it and move their HQ's out of California because of costs.

You do not represent all WFH people or their particular situations.

[wtwo3]

Originally Posted by rebekahb

You posted about this a while back and I just laughed my ass off that your Yucca is still delayed. How is this possible? I didn't know the need for fake plants was so high A. Props for not cancelling your order B. I'm going to need to see an actual picture of this placed once it's arrived.

Oh trust me, my wife has pleaded on multiple occasions for me to just cancel it and get something else. But my office, my rules (sometimes). I don't know HOW it could possibly be delayed so much Nobody has an explanation, just that my order keeps updating with a later delivery date whenever I begin approaching the previous date.

I'll be sure to create a thread in celebration for when I get my Yucca. It'll be a glorious day...

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by ASAP

So uhhhh... who is creating these fake supply issues? Because there is no reasonable understanding at this time why there are shortages... i've heard every excuse now including aliens.

Theres a ton of reasons for it.

China is still shutting down areas due to covid. so anything coming from there or using parts from there are having issues. Lots of control boards/modules have gone from 4-6 week lead times to 52+ week lead times, and even that is just a best guess of when they will get it. Ive had I/O cards, Processors, VFDs, MCCs, Transformers, etc on order since August 2021 (with a 4-6 month lead on the longest item at the time) that our latest ETA shows September 2022.

Then there are stateside manufacturing issues with labor and material shortages. Add in the recent "Buy American" regulations that reduced the parts and pieces that could be foreign sourced to qualify for American Made and many manufacturers have had to re-adjust product lines. There was also a massive slowdown at the start of covid, where manufacturers had to reduce/shut down output. They then couldnt get started back up quick enough to meet the exploding supply, and have been playing catch up since. This has been killing us with Steel/Ductile/PVC pipe and valves/gates. Typical lead times of 4-6 weeks are now 16-20 weeks.

And then theres the fed government who recently i have seen hitting manufacturers with the Defense Protection Act and re-assigning their order allocations to the fed government projects. I've been hit with this one as well for a few things. A couple pieces of equipment went from an ETA of August 2022 to 2nd quarter 2023.

Originally Posted by NYG

If a single contractor or sub-contractor used COVID or "supply chain" as an excuse to not deliver a project here in NYC within a reasonable time frame, all the way back to 2020, they would have went under and never got another job again.

It's a convenient excuse that will be used for a while by these garbage companies.

For every 1 company that is really struggling with this, 1,000 will b/s you about it.

Maybe residential and light commercial, but every single big commercial and industrial contractor I know is dealing with this. If youre only dealing with common building materials, maybe its not as bad as there is still a decent supply, but prices have gone through the roof.



This unfortunately is the new normal for the foreseeable future. High prices, low supply, extremely long lead times. Almost makes me want to get out of construction. Starts to wear you down when you only get bad news every day.

[NYG]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

Maybe residential and light commercial, but every single big commercial and industrial contractor I know is dealing with this. If youre only dealing with common building materials, maybe its not as bad as there is still a decent supply, but prices have gone through the roof.



This unfortunately is the new normal for the foreseeable future. High prices, low supply, extremely long lead times. Almost makes me want to get out of construction. Starts to wear you down when you only get bad news every day.

I fabricate and erect high-rise structural steel frames in Manhattan/Queens/Bronx for residential and commercial. Yes, prices are insane but none of my projects have stopped since 2019. Never got a single day off during the lockdowns. Some lead times are a bit longer but nothing like what the consumer is experiencing. We did not have the luxury of putting anything on hold. All plank/concrete/masonry/etc showed up per schedule. Owners had to pay out escalation even if contracts had no escalation clauses but everything had to keep moving.