Tesla - no thanks!

[Cos270]

I don't necessarily think our favorite EV fanboy is wrong in saying we are going to see a large shift around 2030. Now, whether he's talking sales and vehicles on the road, or simply EVs on the market is an important distinction. I think by that time you are going to have a plethora of options - making these things, even with the unforeseen supply chain issues, was never going to be the problem once legacy OEMs got on board. What I have yet to be convinced of is actual sales translating to a higher percentage of vehicles on the road being electric. Because at the end of the day, you cannot (at least, not yet) force people to spend their money on something. Even if we get to the point where we are at parity with ICE when it comes to range, charge time and purchase price, people may not want to make the switch for whatever reason (granted, I don't think we're going to be in that situation of parity for at least 25 years).

A much more likely outcome, and one of the reasons I'm seriously considering getting out of the automotive business, is automakers retooling and restructuring their entire companies to phase out ICE cars and make EVs, only for them not to sell in the volumes they need to fund these huge investments they've made. What will happen then? Either legislation gets passed banning ALL personal ICE vehicles, forcing people to buy EVs (can't imagine that going well) or another huge round of bailouts (but it will be more than just GM and Stellantis/FCA this time).

What many don't seem to understand is that none of these companies are capable of making dedicated ICE and EV platforms at large volumes while offering the diversified lineup of vehicles available today. It's simply too capital and resource intensive. That's why you're seeing two approaches from legacy companies: go all in on EV or put out a small handful of models to test the waters while they wait to see what happens with the companies who jump in feet first. Once you commit the money and resources (including time) to retool a facility to make EVs, you can't just flip a switch and suddenly start pumping out ICE cars or components again; whether it's for an engine/transmission plant, or especially a vehicle assembly plant - since most of the companies are developing entire new platforms for their EVs.

By 2025, we are going to have a pretty good idea if this has a chance of working. No need to wait till 2030 or the ICE bans some groups have already made.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by Cos270

I don't necessarily think our favorite EV fanboy is wrong in saying we are going to see a large shift around 2030. Now, whether he's talking sales and vehicles on the road, or simply EVs on the market is an important distinction.

He changed his original statement and is now using generalities for a reason.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

In addition to the vehicle purchase, you have to spend $4-5k to install a quick charger and 240v service at your home to charge your EV.

Many people also seem to think it's largely free to charge an EV. In reality, it's anywhere from $11-100 depending on the vehicle's battery size and if it's being charged at home or at a charging station. A Hummer EV can cost a whopping $80-100 to charge.

The cost to service and repair an EV drivetrain can be astronomical, largely because there a very few serviceable parts, especially the motor. If you have a motor issue on a used, out of warranty EV, you might as well dump the car.

2-4K install? Depends on who you call.

You don’t really have to. Superchargers are everywhere. And the last time I visited one, cost me about 16 bucks. So a bit higher than a year or 2 ago when people were spending like 6 bucks.

Most ev have long warranties. And I would agree to just lease an ev currently and wait for more improvements before buying one for the long haul.

This time is coming whether people wanna believe it or not. Making up any excuse in the world to convince yourself this isn’t going to happen is foolishness.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by G35POPPEDMYCHERRY

i guess TSLA and RIVAN TO THE MOON. huuuuggge gigantic returns

its also funny how we argue about things like this on bimmerpost, while most people are just struggling to make ends meet

I don’t need to argue to prove a point.

My point will become valid soon enough and people will say “oh fuck that idiot BGM was right, I’ll pretend I haven’t gotten a chance to check those ev threads out because I don’t wanna see him gloat about it”. Lmao

[M3WC]

It is real simple. Less than 1% of the 250 million cars, SUVs and light-duty trucks on the road in the United States are electric. Multiple studies have shown that 2050 will be the earliest EV's will make up the majority of vehicles on the road. Those are the facts.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by M3WC

It is real simple. Less than 1% of the 250 million cars, SUVs and light-duty trucks on the road in the United States are electric. Multiple studies have shown that 2050 will be the earliest EV's will make up the majority of vehicles on the road. Those are the facts.

Forecasts can't really be facts, just as a person who's paid to make them.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

Forecasts can't really be facts, just as a person who's paid to make them.

I understand that. They are also studies done or funded by the groups pushing green regulations. 2050 is an optimistic outlook.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by RM7

It still ends up significantly cleaner and more efficient to power an EV by common fossil fuel power, like gas-turbines. Especially because modern gas turbines are around 65% efficient.

The DOE disagrees with your optimistic figures, and that efficiency can only ever be achieved at full load, but we can just take your word for it.

https://www.energy.gov/fecm/how-gas-...nt%20or%20more.

What really matters is how many of your "modern gas turbine" plants are connected to the grid? many are not modern high efficiency units, and all averaged together this source is in the 35-40% range, similar to an ICE Toyota Prius.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

2-4K install? Depends on who you call.

Say I live in an apartment, where will I plug in? What if I rent my house?

According to the US census, 35% of us households are renters.

[Cos270]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Say I live in an apartment, where will I plug in? What if I rent my house?

According to the US census, 35% of us households are renters.

And that number is only going to go up in the next 5-10 years as interest rates climb and future generations continue to be priced out of the housing market.

It's not just one thing (the tech, the cost to entry) that make the great EV transition not feasible in the next 10-15 years. It's a combination of factors - not all of which car makers or even legislators can be expected to solve.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Cos270

And that number is only going to go up in the next 5-10 years as interest rates climb and future generations continue to be priced out of the housing market.

It's not just one thing (the tech, the cost to entry) that make the great EV transition not feasible in the next 10-15 years. It's a combination of factors - not all of which car makers or even legislators can be expected to solve.

"somebody else will solve that..."

Who the F is this guy : "Somebody Else"? I keep hearing that name...

[Froz3n_M]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

That’s the issue with the argument you guys have.

TESLA IS NOT THE ONLY EV CAR MAKER ANYMORE LOL.

This is exactly why i said by 2030 you will see that “gigantic” swing. Because every car maker is making them now, and pumping them out like young couples having babies.

Those companies are being pushed by CURRENT policy to be zero emissions by X date. Policies change, government officials change, mindset changes. I am not saying its not possible, but I just don't see it that quickly with the lack of infrastructure and back bone required to support this. We are advancing in storing power and being more "efficient" but not on providing or distributing that power for all.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

What if I rent my house?

And your landlord to split the $800 install with you. Worked for me twice. (Unless you had a 200 foot drop from the utility room to the garage, you're not spending $3-4k.)

It's like any home improvement, it offers all future renters a benefit so most landlords will happily split the cost.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

And your landlord to split the $800 install with you. Worked for me twice. (Unless you had a 200 foot drop from the utility room to the garage, you're not spending $3-4k.)

It's like any home improvement, it offers all future renters a benefit so most landlords will happily split the cost.

And for those that say "no" or their home has inadequate supply? Just don't drive an EV? Last house that I owned as a landlord could not support such a load.

Apartments/condos will be even worse. Services run to those kinds of buildings are "just enough" because the structure and it's load calculations are static through the life of the structure, no need to build any excess or panel capacity. That's a lot of people that will end up riding a bus/train.

Buildings will eventually catch up, but not in the next 7 or even 13 years.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

And for those that say "no" or their home has inadequate supply? Just don't drive an EV? Last house that I owned as a landlord could not support such a load.

Apartments/condos will be even worse. Services run to those kinds of buildings are "just enough" because the structure and it's load calculations are static through the life of the structure, no need to build any excess or panel capacity. That's a lot of people that will end up riding a bus/train.

Buildings will eventually catch up, but not in the next 7 or even 13 years.

I mean, it's 5 miles an hour on 110v. Works for most people and you can always top off at a higher voltage plug as needed.

To be fair, I'm in a four year old place, with entirely new infrastructure for the whole community. I was in a 1915 house a few years ago with cloth wiring. I was scared anytime I turned on my amp. I would have never asked for an EV charging port there!

We both work from home, don't really have any commute to speak of. I could charge on 110v once a week and be fine nearly the whole year. It's nice to have 220v, but all it really does is let me go two weeks between charges, or just keep it around 70% charge.

Not everybody needs an EV. 2030 will never happen in any US state. Could it happen in SFO or LA County? Sure, but Orange County would never go for that ish. If anything, cars will have to be PHEV at some future point, but pure BEV? Unlikely.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

I mean, it's 5 miles an hour on 110v. Works for most people and you can always top off at a higher voltage plug as needed.

We both work from home, don't really have any commute to speak of. I could charge on 110v once a week and be fine nearly the whole year. It's nice to have 220v, but all it really does is let me go two weeks between charges, or just keep it around 70% charge.

All those 110v extension cords in an apartment complex? You ever live in an apartment with unassigned parking, or assigned parking thats not directly in front of your front door?

It would take a minimum of 16 hours to charge for my daily commute, and this assumes I don't do anymore than drive to/from work. Hopefully it never gets cold or hot where these people charging with 110V live because their range will drop and their charge time will get extended.

Not everybody needs an EV. 2030 will never happen in any US state. Could it happen in SFO or LA County? Sure, but Orange County would never go for that ish. If anything, cars will have to be PHEV at some future point, but pure BEV? Unlikely

I agree, I'm just listing some of the adoption barriers that don't have clear and viable solutions. This isn't going to logistically work for a whole lot of people, regardless of what laws are enacted.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

All those 110v extension cords in an apartment complex? You ever live in an apartment with unassigned parking, or assigned parking thats not directly in front of your front door?

It would take a minimum of 16 hours to charge for my daily commute, and this assumes I don't do anymore than drive to/from work. Hopefully it never gets cold or hot where these people charging with 110V live because their range will drop and their charge time will get extended.

I agree, I'm just listing some of the adoption barriers that don't have clear and viable solutions. This isn't going to logistically work for a whole lot of people, regardless of what laws are enacted.

I actually live by an apartment complex with unassigned spots and no 110v drops. It always amazes me how many BEVs are in there. There are Tesla chargers across the street and Electrify America ones a mile away, but unless they have charging at work, that still seems like a pain. Last I looked none of them were the Hyundai/Kia with high rate charging.

In my fringe case (fully remote work is around 13% last I checked) I could make an apartment and a BEV work. My favorite coffee place has high amperage charging in their parking lot. So I could get a weeks worth of charge just grabbing beans and an espresso once or twice a week. But I really wouldn't want to rely on that sort of setup, and the 87% of folks with a commute sure wouldn't want to do that.

I also live in a large city with comical growth and lots of recent infrastructure improvements. If I were in the burbs or rural, I'd laugh about EVs like my dad does. They don't fit his needs in any way.

[TXSTYLE]

If I understand correctly... The overall carbon footprint to source all materials for a Tesla is several times higher than say a modern mid sized SUV. If that is accurate, then it's NOT Green and this information should certainly be made more public for a more accurate consensus.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by TXSTYLE

If I understand correctly... The overall carbon footprint to source all materials for a Tesla is several times higher than say a modern mid sized SUV. If that is accurate, then it's NOT Green and this information should certainly be made more public for a more accurate consensus.

It's not accurate when you look at cradle to grave.

https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g_lca_us_ldv

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

I don’t need to argue to prove a point.

My point will become valid soon enough and people will say “oh fuck that idiot BGM was right, I’ll pretend I haven’t gotten a chance to check those ev threads out because I don’t wanna see him gloat about it”. Lmao

dont need to argue to prove a point about something that hasn't happened yet.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

The DOE disagrees with your optimistic figures, and that efficiency can only ever be achieved at full load, but we can just take your word for it.

https://www.energy.gov/fecm/how-gas-...nt%20or%20more.

What really matters is how many of your "modern gas turbine" plants are connected to the grid? many are not modern high efficiency units, and all averaged together this source is in the 35-40% range, similar to an ICE Toyota Prius.

The heat recovery systems already exist and efficiency in excess of 50% is happening. Just do a few searches, you'll see.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by RM7

The heat recovery systems already exist and efficiency in excess of 50% is happening. Just do a few searches, you'll see.

The prius has been in the high real world 50's MPG's for over a decade, and Hyundai has a hybrid in the 60+ MPG range. I should just use those ICE figures for all ICE vs carbon-charged EV comparisons, right?

You might offer examples of less efficient ICE's on the road, but then you open the door for the less efficient power generation. I guess I just need to know going forward, are we dealing with "ideal" figures or "real world" figures in this discussion?