Bullion Investments and Savings

[Fritzer]

Anyone here invest in Bullion or precious metals? I haven't had a place to put a safe this last year so I sold most of my savings off. Didn't want to put it in a safety deposit box because I don't really trust banks, LOL. I want to get back into it, maybe regular purchases of Silver each month. Used to purchase mainly from JM Bullion but I was thinking of bulk buying the APMEX stamped bars next, as they're the cheapest and seem to be of good quality. Looking at safes and found a nice looking one with ~2 cubic feet on Amazon that is fire-proof. It's "Amazon Basics" brand though, not sure how I feel about it. Anyone have experience with that?

Also, anyone have any experience with Mene? Thinking about buying a couple pieces on there as everything they make is 24k, easy to melt etc. Obviously you pay a premium for the actual construction of their products, but they will also buy back whatever you buy at any time, and the overhead besides the actual value is quite low compared to normal precious metal jewelry retail prices. From what I understand they are owned by GoldMoney which has had questionable success since inception.

Besides that I guess we can just have a Bullion Investment thread on here to talk about everything precious metal, investments, and the ever looming impending doom of fiat based financial markets.

[UncleWede]

OK, shit hits the fan. You have a safe full of silver bars, but only need a chicken, or a bucket for catching rainwater. Now what do you do?

[Our03z4]

I wouldn't say invest but I have quite a bit, I keep it for other reasons. I like JM Bullion since they have good sales on Mondays, if you do a wire transfer/check you can get silver for 0.49 over spot and with free shipping.

As far as safes are concerned buy the best you can afford. 2 cubic feet really isn't much for silver, gold would be okay since it takes up much less room for the same value. Small safes people can just walk out with. A large safe bolted to concrete in the center of your home and with some blocks of lead in the bottom keeps it from being carried or pulled.

Just remember that there are far better investments than PMs but they can be a good thing to have as a very small portion of your portfolio. I have a feeling you want to have it on hand for the same reason I do though.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

OK, shit hits the fan. You have a safe full of silver bars, but only need a chicken, or a bucket for catching rainwater. Now what do you do?

That's why you have those too.

[PINeely]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

OK, shit hits the fan. You have a safe full of silver bars, but only need a chicken, or a bucket for catching rainwater. Now what do you do?

Cigarettes and booze are better if you're prepping barter items

[Fritzer]

I like the idea of lead in the bottom of the safe, that's clever. I'm currently renting right now but when I become a homeowner I already have plans and ideas for how I want to build a serious safe. Down the road, though.

Originally Posted by Our03z4

Just remember that there are far better investments than PMs but they can be a good thing to have as a very small portion of your portfolio.

Of course, in my opinion it's a nice way to keep 10%-25% of one's savings.

Originally Posted by Our03z4

I have a feeling you want to have it on hand for the same reason I do though.

I have a feeling that your feeling about my reason is correct.

[Fritzer]

Originally Posted by PINeely

Cigarettes and booze are better if you're prepping barter items

I would say bullets and materials to make them. That's like hard-core Apocalypse prepping though. Not to say I don't have a stockpile or contingency myself for that situation.

My modus operandi for investing is much more anti-fiat, anti-inflation, preservation of value. As I'm more concerned with a Venezuela or 1923 Germany situation, considering the imminent decaying of the USD.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by Fritzer

I like the idea of lead in the bottom of the safe, that's clever. I'm currently renting right now but when I become a homeowner I already have plans and ideas for how I want to build a serious safe. Down the road, though.

Eh, I'd be very leery keeping pm's if renting since you can't completely control who has access to where you live.


Of course, in my opinion it's a nice way to keep 10%-25% of one's savings.

I feel 25% is way to steep. Remember when you sell you get typically $2 less than spot so it has to go up quite a bit. That said I did very well back when it spiked to the $40s, had bought in the $12 range.


I have a feeling that your feeling about my reason is correct.

[PINeely]

Originally Posted by Fritzer

I would say bullets and materials to make them. That's like hard-core Apocalypse prepping though. Not to say I don't have a stockpile or contingency myself for that situation.

My modus operandi for investing is much more anti-fiat, anti-inflation, preservation of value. As I'm more concerned with a Venezuela or 1923 Germany situation, considering the imminent decaying of the USD.

I see, keeping it physical. Carry on then!

Regarding the safe, spend as much as you can on one. Halfway competent thieves can get into a cheapo in seconds, what they do is push it over and crowbar the door open. It seriously takes under 15 seconds. The doors and walls are laminated so while they look as thick as the expensive ones there is much less metal. Even if bolted to the floor nothing a die grinder won't get past. Less fireproof too etc etc. A good safe costs a LOT but it's one of those things to go ahead and get a good one imo. Preferably with a solid steel door and hinges as that is the usual point of attack on any safe.

[roastbeef]

forget about an at-home safe. use a safe deposit box at a bank. problem solved.

[Run Silent]

I’m not a believer of precious metals as an investment. It’s a commodity, which translated means it creates no revenue. I invest in things that create revenue. Bricks don’t create revenue, so I don’t buy bricks. I don’t buy cloth. I don’t buy commodities, and I don’t buy little gold or silver bricks either. The point is that the only thing which drives the market price of gold is demand. The only things that drive demand for gold are greed or fear.

People feel like the price is going to go up, so they jump in. Greed might be too strong a word, so it might be speculation. You are estimating people’s emotions. That’s all that drives commodities because gold does not create revenue. The only way gold goes up in value is if more people want it. If less people want it, it goes down.

Some are just vaguely fearful and say that things aren’t good, which I would agree with. Based on that, they see gold as an investment because they think there is going to be more fear before there is less fear. They bet on the fear driving the price up. Others have gone all the way to the conspiracy theory side. They say the world is coming to an end and it’s all the Rockefeller’s fault or whatever junk they dream up. They have bottled water and generators and all that in their basement. They think the world is coming to an end, and that’s a bunch of bull.

The gold thing is driven by fear, versus if I buy a piece of real estate. If I buy a $300,000 rental house, it will make me a certain number of dollars in rent. I have the rent, which I can analyze and say that if I do my job as a landlord and fill up the property, then that investment will create revenue. It’s not a brick. It creates revenue and it has the future to create revenue. It can also go up in value in addition to that.

If I buy mutual funds, which have stocks in them, that creates revenue. If you do an analysis of Apple or Hewlett-Packard or Dell or McDonald’s or Home Depot, where you can analyze the level of debt they have, the growth level they have, their store sales, profit-earnings ratio, you can look at those numbers and determine that the stock is going to go up and be worth more. It is predictable based on the math. It is not based on someone’s whim.

In this case, you put cash out and you own a brick. Then you wait to see if fear drives the price of the brick up. The instant there is less fear, the price of the brick will come down. Gold has a horrible track record. Here’s another hint: If your investments are advertised right after a Snuggie ad, you are probably not in a good category of investments. If Snuggie is on, and then right after that, catheters and then gold coins, something is wrong. Some people might say that real estate is on there, but it’s get-rich-quick real estate, which I don’t advocate at all. But owning real estate does make sense.

Gold has a 70-year track record of 3.8% returns. That's just slightly above the rate of inflation. It's awful. All the rate of return that gold has made has been in the last seven years, and even then it will go up and down and up and down. It's very volatile.

If there are any end-time conspiracy theorist nutburgers who think that gold is stable and will cover us if the economy collapses, I tell you that gold and money are spiritual. Gold is only as good to you as someone else is willing to take it as payment. There is no guarantee that someone will take it as payment.

When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and that economy collapsed, the first thing that happens is commodities become valuable. Paper money isn't valuable and gold isn't valuable. A bottle of water, a tank of gas or a pair of blue jeans in that mess was a big deal, but a bar of gold wouldn't have gotten you anything. People are after survival in those situations. The idea that we return to the gold standard after a crash is bogus.

[roastbeef]

Originally Posted by usshelena725

I’m not a believer of precious metals as an investment. It’s a commodity, which translated means it creates no revenue. I invest in things that create revenue. Bricks don’t create revenue, so I don’t buy bricks. I don’t buy cloth. I don’t buy commodities, and I don’t buy little gold or silver bricks either. The point is that the only thing which drives the market price of gold is demand. The only things that drive demand for gold are greed or fear.

People feel like the price is going to go up, so they jump in. Greed might be too strong a word, so it might be speculation. You are estimating people’s emotions. That’s all that drives commodities because gold does not create revenue. The only way gold goes up in value is if more people want it. If less people want it, it goes down.

Some are just vaguely fearful and say that things aren’t good, which I would agree with. Based on that, they see gold as an investment because they think there is going to be more fear before there is less fear. They bet on the fear driving the price up. Others have gone all the way to the conspiracy theory side. They say the world is coming to an end and it’s all the Rockefeller’s fault or whatever junk they dream up. They have bottled water and generators and all that in their basement. They think the world is coming to an end, and that’s a bunch of bull.

The gold thing is driven by fear, versus if I buy a piece of real estate. If I buy a $300,000 rental house, it will make me a certain number of dollars in rent. I have the rent, which I can analyze and say that if I do my job as a landlord and fill up the property, then that investment will create revenue. It’s not a brick. It creates revenue and it has the future to create revenue. It can also go up in value in addition to that.

If I buy mutual funds, which have stocks in them, that creates revenue. If you do an analysis of Apple or Hewlett-Packard or Dell or McDonald’s or Home Depot, where you can analyze the level of debt they have, the growth level they have, their store sales, profit-earnings ratio, you can look at those numbers and determine that the stock is going to go up and be worth more. It is predictable based on the math. It is not based on someone’s whim.

In this case, you put cash out and you own a brick. Then you wait to see if fear drives the price of the brick up. The instant there is less fear, the price of the brick will come down. Gold has a horrible track record. Here’s another hint: If your investments are advertised right after a Snuggie ad, you are probably not in a good category of investments. If Snuggie is on, and then right after that, catheters and then gold coins, something is wrong. Some people might say that real estate is on there, but it’s get-rich-quick real estate, which I don’t advocate at all. But owning real estate does make sense.

Gold has a 70-year track record of 3.8% returns. That's just slightly above the rate of inflation. It's awful. All the rate of return that gold has made has been in the last seven years, and even then it will go up and down and up and down. It's very volatile.

If there are any end-time conspiracy theorist nutburgers who think that gold is stable and will cover us if the economy collapses, I tell you that gold and money are spiritual. Gold is only as good to you as someone else is willing to take it as payment. There is no guarantee that someone will take it as payment.

When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and that economy collapsed, the first thing that happens is commodities become valuable. Paper money isn't valuable and gold isn't valuable. A bottle of water, a tank of gas or a pair of blue jeans in that mess was a big deal, but a bar of gold wouldn't have gotten you anything. People are after survival in those situations. The idea that we return to the gold standard after a crash is bogus.

this. solid advice. there is a big difference between being a speculator and being an investor. it is wise to know the difference.

[other_evolved]

I'll pass on any meaningful allocation to a non-performing asset for exactly the reasons usshelena posted. Excellent advice...

[Fritzer]

While I think that Real Estate is the best revenue-generating investments one can own, I still think PM is inherently valuable. Since the dawn of civilization it has been used, and while yes there are extremely low returns, it is stable. People purchase gold to preserve value, the one's who buy it to make a ROI are foolish. There is a reason banks and governments stock-pile it along with other assets, and it was originally the store of value of the dollar. I think that gold will always be valuable for the foreseeable future, until Elon Musk starts mining asteroids for it that is.

[Fritzer]

Originally Posted by usshelena725

When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and that economy collapsed, the first thing that happens is commodities become valuable. Paper money isn't valuable and gold isn't valuable. A bottle of water, a tank of gas or a pair of blue jeans in that mess was a big deal, but a bar of gold wouldn't have gotten you anything. People are after survival in those situations. The idea that we return to the gold standard after a crash is bogus.

Yes, the likelihood of a complete deconstruction of society is very unlikely, although it's not un-wise to prepare one's self for disaster or temporary survival. You could say that in a lawless situation "owning" property means nothing when someone comes along with a bigger gun or more people.

However when you have a situation where a government has been extremely reckless and foolish with it's money(i.e. the last 1/2 century with the United States and Federal Reserve), it is very feasible to predict a major inflation event or recession occurring. The thought that the value of the USD is based off of "the faith and credit of the United States Government" is incredibly unnerving and it's clear the United States is on a downward spiral culturally, especially when the pendulum swings and we get an even worse president next go at it. Also keep in mind we are in a huge bubble with interest rates being kept artificially low.

Not being antagonistic but just curious at your thoughts on alternatives to a gold standard? You have some very good points.

[Run Silent]

Originally Posted by Fritzer

While I think that Real Estate is the best revenue-generating investments one can own, I still think PM is inherently valuable. Since the dawn of civilization it has been used, and while yes there are extremely low returns, it is stable. People purchase gold to preserve value, the one's who buy it to make a ROI are foolish. There is a reason banks and governments stock-pile it along with other assets, and it was originally the store of value of the dollar. I think that gold will always be valuable for the foreseeable future, until Elon Musk starts mining asteroids for it that is.

You are welcome do with your money, whatever it is you wish to do.

My only additional comments would be as follows:

1) Gold historically doesn't preserve value, as it doesn't keep pace with inflation. The roughly 4% return over the long run has mostly been due to the recent spike in values. If you remove the last 10 years or so, gold has not risen at the rate of inflation.

2) If you are that worried about preserving wealth, then move your money into a strong long term CD or Money Market Fund. You can get fixed rates of around 2-3% with enough capital investment, and those are guaranteed returns, unlike gold. They will also typically keep you within 0.2 - 0.5% of inflation, so you will lose some value of the long run, but very little.

3) Gold is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. I liken gold to baseball cards. 30 years ago, many people had a baseball card collection worth thousands and could be liquidated at nearly any local sports card shop. Now, those cards (with a very few exceptions) are worthless. They are worthless because no one is willing to give any money for them. This is the same as gold. If no one is willing to buy it from you, it isn't worth anything. If the shit hits the fan - what are people going to accept as payment? Gold, Cash, or food, guns, ammo, and water?

4) If you are content in your decisions and wish to remain with commodities as part of your net worth and are buying bullion vs certificates, then seriously - put them in a bank. There isn't a safe made that is available to the public that a competent thief cannot break into in just a matter of time.

[Jockey]

[img]https://i.gifer.com/Eayt.gif[/img]

[Run Silent]

Originally Posted by Fritzer

Yes, the likelihood of a complete deconstruction of society is very unlikely, although it's not un-wise to prepare one's self for disaster or temporary survival. You could say that in a lawless situation "owning" property means nothing when someone comes along with a bigger gun or more people.

However when you have a situation where a government has been extremely reckless and foolish with it's money(i.e. the last 1/2 century with the United States and Federal Reserve), it is very feasible to predict a major inflation event or recession occurring. The thought that the value of the USD is based off of "the faith and credit of the United States Government" is incredibly unnerving and it's clear the United States is on a downward spiral culturally, especially when the pendulum swings and we get an even worse president next go at it. Also keep in mind we are in a huge bubble with interest rates being kept artificially low.

Not being antagonistic but just curious at your thoughts on alternatives to a gold standard? You have some very good points.

Please don't take offense on anything I say either, as sometimes I come across as rude or brash, when really I am just being direct and to the point (I am at work, after all!)

With respect to your first paragraph, you are correct - R/E isn't a good plan either if you are plotting for the 'doom and gloom' scenario, but that is seriously nut-ball talk - we are no closer to a 'lawless survival' situation now than we were 50 or even 200 years ago. But, if you hang out with the tin-foil hat crowd - then yes, you should stock up on food, water, weapons, ammo, etc rather than cash, gold, or houses.

Regarding your second paragraph, I think there are far too many people who had 'Obama Derangement Syndrome' or currently have 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' and think that everything is just terrible. The country isn't in a downward spiral culturally, it's just the Fox News and MSNBC folks that keep drumming that into peoples heads. Look back even 50-75 years ago. In the USA, women and blacks couldn't vote. Whites and blacks couldn't eat together or go to school together, and certainly couldn't marry. Gay couples would be beaten on the streets in many towns. These things are all nearly non-existent today. Today, the American society is much better than it ever has been, contrary to the small minority of nut-balls you see on the news or on TV. Even from a political standpoint, Nixon was worse than Trump and FDR was worse than Obama. Going back a few years more, and we had presidents getting assassinated left and right. Heck, previously, the sitting vice president and the Secretary of the Treasury fought each other to the death (Aaron Burr - Sect of Treasury was killed) in a public duel! In that same era, another president (Andrew Jackson) shot and killed another guy simply because he accused him of cheating in a horse race! The current shenanigans going on in D.C. pale in comparison.

As such - when looking at the long run picture, nothing today is nearly as dire as many make it out to be. All will work out just fine.

[roastbeef]

op, read a book called rich dad, poor dad. i think you'll dig it (i listen to a ton of audiobooks). it covers a lot of what we are talking about in here. what i liked about it is it prompts you to evaluate what is an appreciating asset and what is a depreciating asset.... what is good liability and bad liability. he even toys with the idea that buying a house is a poor financial decision... if thats all you're going to do.
there are tons of financial strategies depending on what you're comfortable with. are you ok with a ton of GOOD debt? can you make a clear decision on what is good leverage and what is toxic leverage?

[roastbeef]

another thing i forgot to add- some people think real estate is a bad investment. these people are ignorant. not dumb, ignorant. the return on a $50k investment over 30 years on a rental property is astronomical.