Manheim: Used vehicle prices lower in August

[chassis]

Interesting. Seems like a turn in the market towards the buyer.

Who is considering a preowned vehicle purchase in the next quarter? I am thinking about it.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...st-2022-muvvi/

[ntg44]

Still too high. I'd wait until Q1 2023. Going to get worse before it gets better in my opinion.

[TheWatchGuy]

until it gets back down to that 2017-2019 range, still no.

[chassis]

Thanks. No disagreements on price level. What about direction/movement?

Do you see the pendulum moving toward the buyer’s favor?

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks. No disagreements on price level. What about direction/movement?

Do you see the pendulum moving toward the buyer’s favor?

used cars were never going to stay as high as they had been. The reason they were so high was because there were so few new cars available. As manufacturers have begun navigating the materials/labor shortages more efficiently, new car supply has gotten better and used car prices have started to come down. If we ever get back to pre 2020 new car supply levels, used car prices will be back to where they were.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chassis

Interesting. Seems like a turn in the market towards the buyer.

Who is considering a preowned vehicle purchase in the next quarter? I am thinking about it.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...st-2022-muvvi/

A similar price imbalance took place after the tail end of the great recession, slow recovery led to reduced demand and production of new vehicles. this lasted a few years so then there were fewer cars in circulation. With less sold in prior years, fewer entered the used market 2-3 years later. Used cars became more valuable. This lasted for about as long as reduced production period (~2-1/2 years).

I think we will see the same thing again, there will be a shortage of used 2020/2021/2022 cars coming into the market for another 2-3 years, keeping value high for all used cars by simple supply/demand economics.

There will be fluctuations, and I don't think the current value will stay so inflated. some of that valuation is driven by emotions. There will still be a shortage of newish used cars in the market between now and 2-3 years from now, regardless of emotional factors.

There were some brands that actually kept up pace pretty well, so the shortage isn't as bad as some believe, this will temper the differential, and when emotions settle, simple supply/demand math will take over.

[mjr24]

I mean, with the interest rates where they are….it was obvious they were going to go down. However, it still hasn't gone down very much given these circumstances.

[allinon72]

Anecdotal data point...I'm looking for a single cab short bed 5.0 V8 F150 right now. The LEAST desirable cab config with the least efficient motor. These trucks should be sitting on dealer lots for months.

I save about 8-10 at a time on Carguru's just to track prices. They are all still selling after a few weeks, at 45-50k. It's amazing really, and it just leaves me dumbfounded as to who under 65 is buying such a truck (besides me of course

Seems supply has rebounded but it has not yet satisfied demand.

[c1pher]

Originally Posted by mjr24

I mean, with the interest rates where they are….it was obvious they were going to go down. However, it still hasn't gone down very much given these circumstances.

Bingo. Wages are somewhat flat/decreasing compared to inflation and most people Finance meaning they can only pay x dollars per month. If the interest rate increases that means you have to buy less car or the prices have to come down. Likewise that EV “credit” just causes the manufacturers to increase prices.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by c1pher

Bingo. Wages are somewhat flat/decreasing compared to inflation and most people Finance meaning they can only pay x dollars per month. If the interest rate increases that means you have to buy less car or the prices have to come down. Likewise that EV “credit” just causes the manufacturers to increase prices.

People still have dollars to waste it seems. It'll take another year or two to chew through it all.

[c1pher]

Originally Posted by chris719

People still have dollars to waste it seems. It'll take another year or two to chew through it all.

I suspect longer, like a full model cycle (6-7 years). Don’t forget that manufacturing was slowed to a crawl. You can’t get more used 2020-2021 vehicles and capacity to build has remained low because they figured out scarcity increases prices.

[Donatello.]

Not nearly low enough. I'm not seeing hardly any real world drop

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Anecdotal data point...I'm looking for a single cab short bed 5.0 V8 F150 right now. The LEAST desirable cab config with the least efficient motor. These trucks should be sitting on dealer lots for months.

I save about 8-10 at a time on Carguru's just to track prices. They are all still selling after a few weeks, at 45-50k. It's amazing really, and it just leaves me dumbfounded as to who under 65 is buying such a truck (besides me of course

Seems supply has rebounded but it has not yet satisfied demand.

i think the problem you will be running in to, depending on which trim level you are wanting, is ford went away from mass producing a lot of those less desirable configurations and moved towards producing the more popular configurations for dealer stock and customer orders if you want something different.

i had the same problem, couldnt find any of the lariats in supercrew with 6.5ft bed. the most popular configuration was supercrew with 5.5ft bed. had to order one to get what i wanted.

[allinon72]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

i think the problem you will be running in to, depending on which trim level you are wanting, is ford went away from mass producing a lot of those less desirable configurations and moved towards producing the more popular configurations for dealer stock and customer orders if you want something different.

i had the same problem, couldnt find any of the lariats in supercrew with 6.5ft bed. the most popular configuration was supercrew with 5.5ft bed. had to order one to get what i wanted.

You are right, there aren't a ton of them.

The Supercrew long beds seem to be sitting for a while right now.

[Alfisti]

Yah the big issue a lot of you are forgetting will be the lack of good used cars over the coming 5 to 7 years. There's a massive hole in the market there so whilst prices will drop as inflation and rates bite, those expecting 2019 prices will be disappointed.

I still get notices from my 997 search even though i have bought and prices remain strong. Not as insane as they were but decent cars are still commanding very high prices.

[chassis]

Yes 911 prices continue upward and don’t mean anything to the broader market.

[Humdizzle]

just checked penfed. 6% interest ? a 48 month loan for 20k will cost you about 2700 all together. Ouch !

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by chassis

Yes 911 prices continue upward and don’t mean anything to the broader market.

P-car market is just something else.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Anecdotal data point...I'm looking for a single cab short bed 5.0 V8 F150 right now. The LEAST desirable cab config with the least efficient motor. These trucks should be sitting on dealer lots for months.

I save about 8-10 at a time on Carguru's just to track prices. They are all still selling after a few weeks, at 45-50k. It's amazing really, and it just leaves me dumbfounded as to who under 65 is buying such a truck (besides me of course

Seems supply has rebounded but it has not yet satisfied demand.

Wasn't too long ago my local truck dealers had zero inventory on thier lots. Everything inbound was pre-sold. Not so today, they actually have physical inventory with advertised $2-$3k off on certain trucks.

[P1]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Wasn't too long ago my local truck dealers had zero inventory on thier lots. Everything inbound was pre-sold. Not so today, they actually have physical inventory with advertised $2-$3k off on certain trucks.

Not around here. I went looking for Escalades and Yukons. If you wanted to buy whatever they had on the lot, it was $10K markup on the Yukons and $20K on the Escalades.

Oh, you want MSRP? Sure! Just get ready to wait 8 months to a year and even then it'll come with missing standard features.

[NickyC]

Cars are just too damned high, no thanks.

[dgoldenz]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

just checked penfed. 6% interest ? a 48 month loan for 20k will cost you about 2700 all together. Ouch !

PenFed’s rates are no longer competitive which sucks because I’ve used them for years. I just got 2.99% for 72 months from my local credit union on a 2014 private party car. PenFed was like 6.5% for same thing.