Stock market tips and experiences

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Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

I'm just speculating. NFLX is a little over-priced though don't you think?

there was a buyer and a seller at the share price, that's all that matters.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

If we don't go into QE3 then hopefully SLV should sky-rocket. But it has been going down even when the economy is bad, which is kind of the opposite reason for why I bough it. And when does QE2 end by the way?

You have it all wrong, if you want silver to go up you need to pray for QE3...QE is money printing by the Fed Reserve...they do this when things look bad...but if you want to see the effects, you need the Feds to actually start pumping momey into the economy and not just talk about it......the govt wants free money to grease the wheels so they print up worthless IOU's called treasuries...the Fed Reserve, which is a private banking cartel that sets interest rates for us and in cahoots with the govt, prints up fictitious electronic 0's(please note this money comes from nowhere...it isnt backed by anything...in most circles, this is called counterfeiting) on a computer and wirelessly sends it to the US govt as money so they can spend it prog's we dont need...we the tax payers then pay interest on monies borrowed from the Fed's when the constitution says only the govt has the right to print coin/currency...the govt has the right to print their own money at no % interest yet does not...hhhmmm.

The banks also get this fictitious money from the Feds too and though fractional banking, they lend out 90% more money then they take in...this is how money grows in our ponzi economy...ya see, when banks hand out loans, that money is created out of thin air too, they didnt have this money...dont believe me, go to a bank and get a loan but ask for gold or cash, they wont give it ya that way......banks are supposed to keep 10% of all monies deposited but they circumvent these rules by sweeping checking acct money into money mkt accts hence they dont have to keep any of the cash deposited before loaning out 10X more than you deposited.

So getting back to where I was, you have to watch the M3 money supply curves and take into consideration money velocity(actual spending) to truly understand inflation and deflation...all inflation is the expansion of the money supply...it has nothing to do with the cost of things...rising prices for goods is just a by-product of inflation...you see, if the money supply grows and there is more money competing for goods such as gas, gasoline prices go up over 4.00 a gallon due to supply/demand...deflation is when money supply shrinks so there are less dollars chasing goods hence prices must come down to match demand.

Metals such as silver often correlate with the stock mkt and the economy...when things get bad, the govt starts to print money and this money chases good hence stock mkt and metals go up after the initial bear mkt assault.

The worst thing that can happen for metals is that things are so genuinely good the govt raises interest rates and shrinks the money supply, then the mkts and metals must and will tank....some will say if things are good, doesnt this imply the stock mkt is doing good?..not necessarily, cause too much inflation will cripple the economy as there will be no excess spending money other than for basic necessities.

Another funny thing about metals is this...with gold you kinda win during inflation as gold will increase in price on nominal basis, but even during deflation, gold does ok even when nominal price sinking, as other things you need to buy such as food/gas tank even harder, so on relative basis, metals do decent during deflation too.

Will be a long time before times are truly good because during the 2000's until 08, 3/4 of the GDP growth was based on people tapping their home equity ATM...well this isnt going to happen again for a very long time...so the driver of growth for past decade now gone.

See, quite simple...

[mact3333]

Guys,

Trying to figure out which company is going to blow out earnings and such is for suckers...too unpredictable...you need to understand the general mkts and then everything else is easier...cause 90% of stocks just follow the gen mkt trend.

The key is at 1240 on SPX...the 200 dma is near there...if we bounce and rally, we could easily see over 1500 SPX by early next yr...but if the mkts accept prices below 1240 and we sell off from there, the entire bull mkt is prob over and the next phase of the bear could last for yrs.

I personally wouldnt do anything drastic right now, just wait until the mkts declares itself at this key level...now if youre playing very short term momentum or day trading, then good luck cause there is a 90% chance you will fail, esp during a choppy mkt...during a true bull mkt like from 3/09-recently, anybody can be a genius by going long pretty much anything.

If you go long, make sure the 50dma and the 200dma on the stock of interest is trending up.

Also, all you people playing AAPL are playing with fire, that chart doesnt look healthy to me...and one day the stock will gap down 15-20%(Jobs health announcement) and it will happen within next yr I am guessing...Steve Jobs not looking too healthy with incurable cancer.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

You're right on some of that, but no one thinks CSCO is going back to $80. At these depressed levels, even going back to $20 or $22 could make you some good money. The company is still the leader in networking by a large sum and that is still a growth business if they can get their house in order. You've seen struggles from the competition (JNPR) which was a bubble as well, yet people are paying a premium for the stock. However, recently, it has heavily sold off due to a "meh" quarter and probably the realization that it isn't eating CSCO's lunch as quickly as some though. $45 to $30 since March, ouch.

I agree that patience is a virtue. Even with all their problems, few thought CSCO would trade nearly below $15 this quickly. I've never seen a company hit their numbers and be hated this much because of shrinking margins and tepid guidance. Still, the price is the price as a very smart investor once told me.

I honestly think it's more dangerous to trade momentum stocks like CMG, NFLX, and CRM. Those will come back to earth too and the pain will be greater. It really comes down to 2 different schools...ride the wave, or try to find bargains.

The key for any investor is to be patient and buy low, sell high. I think you're "safer" buying quality companies low and waiting than trying to jump on the momentum stock bandwagon where the fall will be swift and not pretty.

CSCO has been a slower bleed, but as I said, they are still the leader by a wide margin. I wouldn't count them out yet, but there are no guarantees of course.

Agree with most of what you said, but hasnt CSCO been the networking leader for over a decade now?...so that cant be the reason why stock goes up or down...its all about supply-demand imho.

Thing about CSCO is this, its too big of a company to have big moves anymore...MSFT too...if you're looking for 25% gain over a yr, then it could do that, but so can a million other stocks.

A stock doesnt trade on what it did last qtr, that is ancient history, it trades on future expectations...hence guidance is everything.

Now you get a networking co. growing by 50% a yr this stock price will skyrocket even if they have 1% of the mkt...that is what is important...fundamentals is like politics...they talk about it to give off a facade to make it look like things make sense, but in the meantime, the real players are in clandestine fashion, stealing your lunch money.

Ever wonder why 75% of the trading volume on the NYSE is by the big firm black box robots doing quantum based trading...does this sound like a fair mkt to you when virtually all the trading volume is controlled by a few greedy firms such as GS and JPM.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Agree with most of what you said, but hasnt CSCO been the networking leader for over a decade now?...so that cant be the reason why stock goes up or down...its all about supply-demand imho.

Thing about CSCO is this, its too big of a company to have big moves anymore...MSFT too...if you're looking for 25% gain over a yr, then it could do that, but so can a million other stocks.

A stock doesnt trade on what it did last qtr, that is ancient history, it trades on future expectations...hence guidance is everything.

Now you get a networking co. growing by 50% a yr this stock price will skyrocket even if they have 1% of the mkt...that is what is important...fundamentals is like politics...they talk about it to give off a facade to make it look like things make sense, but in the meantime, the real players are in clandestine fashion, stealing your lunch money.

Ever wonder why 75% of the trading volume on the NYSE is by the big firm black box robots doing quantum based trading...does this sound like a fair mkt to you when virtually all the trading volume is controlled by a few greedy firms such as GS and JPM.

If CSCO isn't the leader, who is? All numbers say they have a dominating market share and they do $11b in revenue per quarter. Not saying that are what they were 10 years ago, but none of the networking giants of that time are today what they were in 2000. Case in point, JNPR. JNPR recently was hammered because of what their CEO said about the market for networking gear. I think we're in a soft patch now. Expectations needed and have come down for CSCO too. Once they clean house and get things in order, I think they'll be ready to grow again, at least modestly.

And I understand the future is everything. However, I think the market has overreacted to CSCO's guidance. Networking isn't going away and I don't see another player ready to challenge CSCO in any meaningful way. At about 9 times forward earnings, I'd say the market has priced in too much doom and gloom. My point here is the market is counting them out and that's a mistake. We'll see in 12 months. Bruce Berkowitz bought 36 million shares at about $19.50. At least I'm better than him.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

If CSCO isn't the leader, who is? All numbers say they have a dominating market share and they do $11b in revenue per quarter. Not saying that are what they were 10 years ago, but none of the networking giants of that time are today what they were in 2000. Case in point, JNPR. JNPR recently was hammered because of what their CEO said about the market for networking gear. I think we're in a soft patch now.

And I understand the future is everything. However, I think the market has overreacted to CSCO's guidance. Networking isn't going away and I don't see another player ready to challenge CSCO in any meaningful way. At about 9 times forward earnings, I'd say the market has priced in too much doom and gloom. We'll see in 12 months.

No I am agreeing with you that CSCO is undeniably the networking leader....my point was that despite them being the leader their stock price has acted like crap for the past decade, so my point it, stock price has nothing to do with who is a leader in what sector...its all about future growth.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by mact3333

No I am agreeing with you that CSCO is undeniably the networking leader....my point was that despite them being the leader their stock price has acted like crap for the past decade, so my point it, stock price has nothing to do with who is a leader in what sector...its all about future growth.

Agree. But even the S&P has been crap for a decade. If you buy and hold CSCO, you may get screwed. I'm just saying we can agree CSCO is trading at a severe discount (perhaphs rightfully so) and you can almost be certain you're buying on the low end. I think we can see low to mid 20s again in the near to medium term (perhaps 6-18 months) and you will be rewarded. I certainly wouldn't want to trade the other players given their high multiples. Depending on timing, JNPR could have easily killed you more than CSCO recently.

CSCO's range in the last decade has been $10-$33. Get in on the lower side and you'll be rewarded if you have the discipline to sell high.

[pt]

Originally Posted by mact3333

So getting back to where I was, you have to watch the M3 money supply curves and take into consideration money velocity(actual spending) to truly understand inflation and deflation...all inflation is the expansion of the money supply...it has nothing to do with the cost of things...rising prices for goods is just a by-product of inflation...you see, if the money supply grows and there is more money competing for goods such as gas, gasoline prices go up over 4.00 a gallon due to supply/demand...deflation is when money supply shrinks so there are less dollars chasing goods hence prices must come down to match demand.

Soooo...since M3 was contracting the last year or so until very recently (and is currently increasing at a rate of about 2%), what does this tell us about the valuation of silver/gold/various other commodities? The bottom line is that stock markets are not encumbered by economics all the time - and this is why I'm still not sure if/when to get back into SLV. I'm finding it difficult to figure out what it's worth right now.

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More generally, I'm still interested in taking a short position on US treasuries. My main reason is that overall fundamentals are deteriorating - we won't be shipping any more toilet mortgage securities to Europe, but will have to deal with the bailout splurge for quite some time. I'm figuring that this would at least have foreign investors asking for a higher rate of return for their perceived risk. Is anyone else here doing this, or thinking about it? I'm looking at TMV and TYO ETF's here (and acknowledge the upfront risk).

[mact3333]

SLVhad a mini blow off top at 50.00...the crash in 1 wk time was the largest in silvers history...it takes months to yrs to repair that kind of damage...only way SLV gets near previous high is if QE 3 announced in a big way...with more money printing, gold and silver should re-initialize the bull mkt...I sold all my physical silver that I bought at 12.00 during that selloff week when it couldnt hold 40.00....sold all my AGQ(double long silver) near the top also.

BTW, SLV looks attractive to me between 22-28...start buying in fractions below 28 and I think it will turn out well...odds favor SLV sees 28 before 50...I actually have a bet on this with a friend.

I am more inclined to play ZSL(double short silver) for the very near future anyway...what happens at 1240 SPX will determine whether to get long or short...been in cash for past 2 wks.

Regarding treasuries, wait until QE3 announced when we officially head into a recession again and then the dollar and treasuries will sell off big...but no need to do that until that happens imho.

Treasuries have been a big bubble for a long time, ready to burst soon enough...one day the metals will be that big bubble which will eventually burst...key is the find the bubbles and ride them up.

Originally Posted by pt

Soooo...since M3 was contracting the last year or so until very recently (and is currently increasing at a rate of about 2%), what does this tell us about the valuation of silver/gold/various other commodities? The bottom line is that stock markets are not encumbered by economics all the time - and this is why I'm still not sure if/when to get back into SLV. I'm finding it difficult to figure out what it's worth right now.

--

More generally, I'm still interested in taking a short position on US treasuries. My main reason is that overall fundamentals are deteriorating - we won't be shipping any more toilet mortgage securities to Europe, but will have to deal with the bailout splurge for quite some time. I'm figuring that this would at least have foreign investors asking for a higher rate of return for their perceived risk. Is anyone else here doing this, or thinking about it? I'm looking at TMV and TYO ETF's here (and acknowledge the upfront risk).

[AngelinIsRich08]

I'm not all that worried about CSCO. When it hits $16 and starts climbing I'll probably buy even more. But for now I'm bearish. So if we don't go into quantitve easing three there's a chance we'd be in another official recession? And something else that'll be big in the future will be online shops. Right now good one's to go into are Ebay and Amazon, even Google. Online shopping will overtake stores because it's cheaper.

[BayMoWe335]

Bernanke must be pulling his imaginary hair out...

He can't let the economy double dip after all we've been through. Alas, it could happen and maybe worse.

Sigh.

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The thing is, we need to go back into a recession/things need to get worse. We need to shake off the fleas before we can actually fix things. There has been far too much manipulation and cash infusion into our economy that valuations are completely skewed. In my opinion, there should have never been any intervention whatsoever. We need things to get worse before they get better. Yeah it isn't a good thing that needs to happen, but it just has to or else we will continue to put band aids on flesh wounds.

[AngelinIsRich08]

In capitalism if something fails because of supply and demand issues, nothing should save it. Chrysler should have gone bankrupt. No one wanted their cars and still no one does. Wasting billions to save a failed company wad pointless and what it is is, communist. Because the government owns a private corporation.

[AngelinIsRich08]

But even if we do go into another recession, the fed and white house will not say that. Obama wouldn't want to risk his reelection and the Fed is filled with liberals. And my investments would go down the toilet. And I have made lots of money stock investing but all that money is into other investments at the moment. Double dipping right now would make the economy be worse than the financial collapse from a few years ago. Also, we would default and china would abandon us, and we would quite possibly take china down with us as well.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

But even if we do go into another recession, the fed and white house will not say that. Obama wouldn't want to risk his reelection and the Fed is filled with liberals. And my investments would go down the toilet. And I have made lots of money stock investing but all that money is into other investments at the moment. Double dipping right now would make the economy be worse than the financial collapse from a few years ago. Also, we would default and china would abandon us, and we would quite possibly take china down with us as well.

are you drunk? your grammar is that of a drunk.

Don't start with the liberal bullshit. This problem has no party lines. I for one am all for the dismantling of the Fed. I think it has no business fucking around with things. It has only made things worse. The problem with our so called capitalist society is that we have never let capitalism run its course. We have always intervened in some way. I believe the closest we got to a true capitalist economy was during the era of Carnegie and Rockafeller. The closest we have come since was the liberalization and deregulation during Reagan. No company is too big to fail. No one company should be saved, while others die. Humans are corrupt and look out for their own interests. That's how laws and regulations get created.

[AngelinIsRich08]

Lol, I'm just tired and was typing on the iPhone. But I'm all for dismantling of the fed. We should just let capitalism and the free market run their course, it's worked before. The Housing market has already double dipped and I'm sure the market and economy will as well.

[pt]

Originally Posted by mact3333

SLVhad a mini blow off top at 50.00...the crash in 1 wk time was the largest in silvers history...it takes months to yrs to repair that kind of damage...only way SLV gets near previous high is if QE 3 announced in a big way...with more money printing, gold and silver should re-initialize the bull mkt...I sold all my physical silver that I bought at 12.00 during that selloff week when it couldnt hold 40.00....sold all my AGQ(double long silver) near the top also.

BTW, SLV looks attractive to me between 22-28...start buying in fractions below 28 and I think it will turn out well...odds favor SLV sees 28 before 50...I actually have a bet on this with a friend.

I am more inclined to play ZSL(double short silver) for the very near future anyway...what happens at 1240 SPX will determine whether to get long or short...been in cash for past 2 wks.

Regarding treasuries, wait until QE3 announced when we officially head into a recession again and then the dollar and treasuries will sell off big...but no need to do that until that happens imho.

Treasuries have been a big bubble for a long time, ready to burst soon enough...one day the metals will be that big bubble which will eventually burst...key is the find the bubbles and ride them up.

I do use SLV for portfolio diversification. But it just doesn't seem right right now. Maybe I'll feel different about it if it goes lower. I blew out of it at 44 (not perfect, but I'm not complaining).

But a QEIII will just prolong the treasury bubble. The Fed doesn't care about demanding a high interest rate. If QE stops (which the Fed continues to claim), then you can bet that the Chinese, Indians, Russians, etc will be wanting more than peanuts on their investments given the inherent political risk in government officials putting more emphasis on fighting with each other than actually putting reasonable policy into place. That will certainly lead to failed auctions, etc. I figure I'll start scaling into the 3X 7 yr ETF once I'm reasonably sure that QE is done, and keep a close eye on it. I'll re-evaluate if Uncle Ben starts another round.

I'm not overly worried about the dollar at the moment, because everybody else is as screwed up as we are, if not worse. The one-legged man is always king in a room full of paraplegics. Either way, I don't like playing with enough leverage to make currency trades worthwhile.

[stylinexpat]

SLV starting to look attractive again. If SLV dips again I will enter a position with some SLV calls.

[mact3333]

looking at SLV chart again buying 32 isnt unreasonable...but if it cant hold that level watch out.

[Patrick303]

I've always liked the Timberland brand. I wish I had picked up some of their stock a while back. 42% jump today on takeover news.

[AngelinIsRich08]

I'm going long on Morgan Stanley (MS). Already up 1% since I bought it.

[007MCoupe]

Anyone buying into Pandora when they lauch their IPO? I'm trying to read as much on it as I can.