Inverted yield curve

[Run Silent]

Originally Posted by roastbeef

interesting. the lender i'm talking to is urging me to hold off for a little bit longer. he's speculating the rates are going to go a little lower- and so far, he has been spot on since may when i approached him about rates and a refi. he seems to think there is a perfect storm brewing with the fed's involvement, an election coming up, and a possible trade war.

Note the bold.

Little lower. This is exactly what 2000cs stated. I can see mortgage rates dropping 10 or 20 BP, perhaps, but the long term economic outlook isn't negative to any dramatic degree, and as such, one shouldn't hedge that the current mortgage rates are going to drop significantly.

[roastbeef]

I was hoping for a 2.75% fixed 15year... not sure we're going to make it. The house I sold was at 3.25 fixed/30 and I miss that. Not sure we'll get that low again.

[corn18]

I have been watching mortgage rate closely for 2 months. 2 months ago, the 10 yr was @ 2% and 15 year rates were around 3%. 10yr and 30 yr have dropped 0.5% and the mortgage rates have not moved. Very odd.

[CLABRO]

Originally Posted by corn18

I have been watching mortgage rate closely for 2 months. 2 months ago, the 10 yr was @ 2% and 15 year rates were around 3%. 10yr and 30 yr have dropped 0.5% and the mortgage rates have not moved. Very odd.

Where are you looking? Mortgage rates have also dropped *slightly*. The thing is, mortgage rates aren't too far off from their all time lows so it's not like we're going to see a significant reduction in mortgage rates nor should we expect to see that. Nothing odd about it really.

Historically speaking, we're still in a low interest rate environment! I think people forget that and think that a 2.75% fixed rate 15 year mortgage is normal and they're just going to wait until that comes back around next month. Rates like that don't just come around every 5 years.....

As Run Silent said, I suspect mortgage rates will drop another ~15-20 basis points as they should (Fed rose rates too quickly to begin with, but that's another topic).

Originally Posted by Run Silent

Note the bold.

Little lower. This is exactly what 2000cs stated. I can see mortgage rates dropping 10 or 20 BP, perhaps, but the long term economic outlook isn't negative to any dramatic degree, and as such, one shouldn't hedge that the current mortgage rates are going to drop significantly.

Yep...here are some nice historical graphs which help to analyze previous trends:
30 year - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
15 year - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Xeu

[roastbeef]

just got a text from my lender today, he said its time to get started on the paperwork... he's at 3.75% on a 30/fixed at this time. we bought in march this year (crap timing for interest rates) at 4.5%. so its still a decent chunk.
we might also look at a 15 year, but worse case scenario, we'll just pay on the 30 like its a 15.

[EstorilM240]

Somehow we've survived nine months since the inversion. It makes me wonder, if it's so obvious there will be a recession and the Fed has almost always let a recession happen, how are they so afraid of overreacting vs. underreacting?

As much as the interest rates have dropped, the auto financing deals are not as good as 2012-2014. I see that places like Germany are now negative rates for bonds across the board, so how much do they pay on auto loans? A casual browsing of sites like kredit.check24.de suggests 0.9-1.9% is common for 4 years, but it makes you think of what the reality on the ground is. If Denmark can have negative mortgage rates maybe people can get paid to buy cars too! https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/dani...est-rates.html

[roastbeef]

How hard would it be to get a loan in Denmark and convert it to USD? Lol

[WestRace]

We are in an earnings recession, and it is expected to get worse

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th..._theo_homepage

It's clear now that the Trump tax cut was simply a sugar high. It creates a huge budget deficit of about 1T dollars which leads to a huge imbalance between the private and public sector. Tax is neither a republican nor democratic issue. It's a mean to keep a country operating efficiently. You can't starve the public sector. Sure you can sell bonds to fund the government but that's not the right way to go, because when you sell bonds, every dumb a$$ in this country will paid and not just the rich.

This dumb a$$ head clearly in the sh$t when signed the bill. lols I am a republican and I just called the dude a dumb a$$.

[dsad1]

Originally Posted by WestRace

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th..._theo_homepage

It's clear now that the Trump tax cut was simply a sugar high. It creates a huge budget deficit of about 1T dollars which leads to a huge imbalance between the private and public sector. Tax is neither a republican nor democratic issue. It's a mean to keep a country operating efficiently. You can't starve the public sector. Sure you can sell bonds to fund the government but that's not the right way to go, because when you sell bonds, every dumb a$$ in this country will paid and not just the rich.

This dumb a$$ head clearly in the sh$t when signed the bill. lols I am a republican and I just called the dude a dumb a$$.

The deficit isn't created by the cut, it is created by the spending spree. Raise or lower taxes as much as you want, if you are not going to control the spending, you will always be in trouble.

[dmatre]

Originally Posted by dsad1

The deficit isn't created by the cut, it is created by the spending spree. Raise or lower taxes as much as you want, if you are not going to control the spending, you will always be in trouble.

Actually, it is both.

If you take in less, then you must spend less.

In Washington, they seemed to have missed that relationship (both sides).

[WestRace]

Originally Posted by dmatre

Actually, it is both.

If you take in less, then you must spend less.

In Washington, they seemed to have missed that relationship (both sides).

It's not really spending. It's more about entitlement programs which neither side dares to touch lols. And why? Because they'll get vote out of office. So who do you blame? The piglititions or the voters? So what's waging the dog lols.

The good thing is the EU is printing even faster than the US. 80% over there is like Greece (where Alexander the Great came from lols)

Everybody talking about the Chinese taking over the world but they may be printing even more and worse like their fake stuffs, nobody knows how much. The Chinese got no transparency to speak of.

It's the race to the bottom it's just that the US is a little slower than the other guys.

[WestRace]

lols. If the market crashes, Trump can blame it on the Dems. The FED will stay on the bench just in case. Let's the blame games begin ladies and gentlemen.

[WestRace]

OK, that didn't take long :-)))

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/trum...ket-lower.html

[WestRace]

The so called "Death cross" appears in the DOW Transports. US data has been trending down lately. There have been talks of a 2018 Q4 deja vu. Hm... is it going to be that easy? Seems like every year is a deja vu - like a joke :-)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/de..._theo_homepage

[WestRace]

It can't be that easy - whenever you're in trouble, just print your way out of trouble. I have to think there's a consequence. If it's too good to be true, then maybe it's too good to be true.

‘world has gone mad’ with easy money and ‘system is broken’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fo...?mod=home-page

[WestRace]

Maybe this is what the future looks like but I still can't see how you can print your way out of trouble ... ad infinitum. Sure it maybe a scare tactic but there have been a lot of chatters of late. The fact that Euro zone central bank has Negative interest is a big concern. It means that people over there don't have any confidence to invest so the central banks are like putting a gun in their heads to force them to invest.

BUT it's also true that things you don't see that cause a crash. BUT it's also true that things you don't see that will begin a new bull markets. Well, it's your call :-)

there actually are troubling linkages between several negative developments that, on the surface, appear to be random and unrelated ...

"The failures in the repo market, negative-yielding debt, a deeply negative term premium, trade conflicts around the world and a collapse in manufacturing all seem unrelated right now, but I don't think they are random,"

... negative yields on sovereign debt as the loudest discordant note today

If you push down [interest rates] too much, you create the problem you are trying to solve

rising numbers of IPOs from loss-making companies

... IPOs from unprofitable companies "signs of excess" that often accompany the late stages of an economic expansion. Indeed, large numbers of unprofitable companies going public also marked the dotcom bubble

When you push liquidity through the system like they [the Fed] have the last ten years, you create a giant bubble

the Fed creating a "Ponzi sector," which includes "companies that have no chance of ever earning a profit," but which attract investors.

high risk leveraged loans have been collapsing in value, and the total global exposure may be as high as $3.2 trillion

https://www.investopedia.com/blackst...ral&yptr=yahoo

[chassis]

WestRace, are you buying or selling?

[WestRace]

Originally Posted by chassis

WestRace, are you buying or selling?

I am holding mostly cash. Thinking of buying Boeing since it's probably bottoming out. It's interesting that the banks are mostly in their highs of the year so there's something going on there.

The Russel 2000 has just formed what's called a "golden cross". Don't know ...

On the negative sides, corporate earnings have been pretty flat so I really don't know what will power the markets to new highs other than the FED will lower rates lower and lower. But there was a recent article that said the FED will probably hold rates as is at least until the after the 2020 election.

[chassis]

Thanks WestRace. You are holding mostly cash, right? Does this mean you are mostly, or totally, out of the market? And you are thinking about buying Boeing, is that correct?

Are you generally looking for a reason to get into the market, or for reasons to stay out of the market, as you are now out of the market?

[WestRace]

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks WestRace. You are holding mostly cash, right? Does this mean you are mostly, or totally, out of the market? And you are thinking about buying Boeing, is that correct?

Are you generally looking for a reason to get into the market, or for reasons to stay out of the market, as you are now out of the market?

I won't have a direct response but I'll say this.

I've been thinking about it and why the market has been a bit crazy and don't make any sense.

Wall Streets are like any companies - Victoria's Secret, Google, Apple ... Their whole purpose is to make money just like any other corporations. But typical corporations make money by selling products to consumers and in return they receive a profit.

But Wall Streets don't make any products - well at least not the typical "products" we usually think of. They do make products like mortgage backed securities and all sorts of derivatives that they can sell to the consumers for a fee or you can call that profit - not too unlike a casino. But still this may not relevant to the ups and downs of the stock market.

A lot of hedge funds intentionally bid up or bid down the market entirely for the purpose of making money. The headlines news are just side shows or at least being used as an excuse to drive up or drive down the markets. The headlines are like a movie trailers to get you hooked into a specific story line for you to either buying or selling the markets.

Most crashes occur when the market is at close to all time high. It's like the casino version of waiting for all the bids are in before pulling the rugs out under you. I guess you can say this is when wall streets make the most money.

[corn18]

Originally Posted by WestRace

Most crashes occur when the market is at close to all time high. It's like the casino version of waiting for all the bids are in before pulling the rugs out under you. I guess you can say this is when wall streets make the most money.

The markets have been close to all time highs for many years.