Stock market tips and experiences

[David70]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I wish i could continue to laugh but it's almost time to cry now lol...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/us-t...key-data-.html

what was that interest rate drop about again lol? jpow continues to be in a tough spot

I don't see a lot of things to cry about? Retail sales up .4% when .3% was expected. Economy might be good enough to not have a rate cut, not seeing this as a big negative. Economy moving along ok doesn't mean we need a rate increase and it's one month of data.

Yields took a leg up after consumer spending figures came in hotter than forecast. Retail sales showed a rise of 0.4% in September, above the estimate of 0.3% from economists polled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.5%, also higher than the consensus expectation of 0.1%.

Weekly jobless claims, meanwhile, fell to 241,000, according to separate data released Thursday. Taken together, both data points paint a picture of a resilient economy.

“Real wage growth and underlying demand for goods and services are overshadowing negative sentiment,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “The economy continues to accelerate thanks to the U.S. consumer, and may improve further as lower fuel prices kick in. Today’s numbers make a recession look even less likely.”

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by David70

I don't see a lot of things to cry about? Retail sales up .4% when .3% was expected. Economy might be good enough to not have a rate cut, not seeing this as a big negative. Economy moving along ok doesn't mean we need a rate increase and it's one month of data.

the only thing I gather (assuming all data is true) is that the rate cut was very premature...

unless we see revised data in a week lol

[David70]

Originally Posted by ASAP

the only thing I gather (assuming all data is true) is that the rate cut was very premature...

unless we see revised data in a week lol

I don't see any data that shows the rate cut was very premature, 1 week of employment numbers, one month sales numbers slightly above what was expected. Fed isn't trying to reduce sales but instead sales prices.

I don't see any alarming data.

[XutvJet]

Nobody knows what's really going to happen in the market. It's all speculation, estimates, and prior history to develop an educated guess. I've always found it quite funny when market analysts put so much weight into a sub 1% movement in employment, growth, etc. especially movements of 0.1%. LOL

Consumers are likely spending again because many prices have fallen and there are more deals to be had as many companies and manufacturers realize that they got really greedy and have had to pull back prices to order to move their products/inventory.

[David70]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Nobody knows what's really going to happen in the market. It's all speculation, estimates, and prior history to develop an educated guess. I've always found it quite funny when market analysts put so much weight into a sub 1% movement in employment, growth, etc. especially movements of 0.1%. LOL

Consumers are likely spending again because many prices have fallen and there are more deals to be had as many companies and manufacturers realize that they got really greedy and have had to pull back prices to order to move their products/inventory.

Prices as a whole continue to go up but at a slower rate. Last I saw inflation is under 3%. There are specific products that have a lower price but as a whole prices will likely continue to go up.

I also disagree with the "greedy manufacturers", they have always tried to get as much as they can for their products, they are paid to sell, maximize profits and raising prices when they can is part of it. Prices go up with demand going up, come down some amount with demand dropping, there isn't some changing mentality based on greed.

[ASAP]

lol

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/21/us-b...-speeches.html

[Tyga11]

So how much cash does everyone have?

I'm at 7%. Probably staying put for the time being. Been trimming big tech pretty constantly the past 2 months or so...

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

So how much cash does everyone have?

I'm at 7%. Probably staying put for the time being. Been trimming big tech pretty constantly the past 2 months or so...

About 6%. Still mostly invested in S&P 500 index funds (70%), Berkshire Class B (15%), and then various other mutual funds, bond funds, stocks, and cash. Pretty much the way I've had things for since 2017. I don't plan to change anything.

[ASAP]

the lols do not stop

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/23/mort...mer-highs.html

seems like the fed's narrative has changed so yields are reacting already and yet again... the good old average consumer gets screwed

[JMcLellan]

On this day in 1929 was Black Thursday and the market dropped 11%. On this same day in 2008 was Bloody Friday when we had a worldwide crash with most indexes dropping 10%. Screw October 24th when it comes to the market. Things are looking fine today.

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by JMcLellan

Things are looking fine today.

...so far.....




.

[Humdizzle]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

So how much cash does everyone have?

I'm at 7%. Probably staying put for the time being. Been trimming big tech pretty constantly the past 2 months or so...

was at 25%, last week i decided to go down to 10%.

very heavy in tech but adding more to others like rtx, xom, jpm, amzn to try and diversify a bit more now.

[ASAP]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/cons...ove-lower.html

"Job openings slid to 7.44 million in September, down more than 400,000 from the previous month’s downwardly revised level and the lowest since January 2021."

Sounds like people are truly delusional at this point.

[bagekko]

Ok no P talk, but curious what the market will do after. If T wins the market will go up/down and how much Thu & Fri? If H wins the market will go up/down and how much Thu & Fri?

I feel like the market has already priced in T winning. If that happens it may go up a little, 1-2% for the Dow & S&P, 3-5% for the Nasdaq. If H wins I predict the Dow & S&P down 3-5% and Nasdaq down 6-10% over the end of the week after.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Ok no P talk, but curious what the market will do after. If T wins the market will go up/down and how much Thu & Fri? If H wins the market will go up/down and how much Thu & Fri?

I feel like the market has already priced in T winning. If that happens it may go up a little, 1-2% for the Dow & S&P, 3-5% for the Nasdaq. If H wins I predict the Dow & S&P down 3-5% and Nasdaq down 6-10% over the end of the week after.

Markets have priced in presidential race, but with some risk. So there could still be movement once the outcome is certain.

Market usually likes split government best, so if T wins, a D congress (or at least D house or Senate) would probably be good for the market. Same if KH wins, a R in either the house or senate majority will be welcomed by markets.

Generally true, personally I don’t see a reason it won’t hold true this year.

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Ok no P talk, but curious what the market will do after. If T wins the market will go up/down and how much Thu & Fri? If H wins the market will go up/down and how much Thu & Fri?

I feel like the market has already priced in T winning. If that happens it may go up a little, 1-2% for the Dow & S&P, 3-5% for the Nasdaq. If H wins I predict the Dow & S&P down 3-5% and Nasdaq down 6-10% over the end of the week after.

IIRC during Trump's first term the market went up 13.8% per year. 'course I'm sure there were some investors who sold off some of their holdings assuming markets would crash.

During Biden's only term (as president) the market also went up but by a lesser amount. 11.9%.

And I recall prior to Biden's election win the word was the markets would drop considerably. 20% or more was bandied about.

I stayed in the market during both Trump and Biden terms.

Investing based on politics is not a good idea.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by RockCrusher

IIRC during Trump's first term the market went up 13.8% per year. 'course I'm sure there were some investors who sold off some of their holdings assuming markets would crash.

During Biden's only term (as president) the market also went up but by a lesser amount. 11.9%.

And I recall prior to Biden's election win the word was the markets would drop considerably. 20% or more was bandied about.

I stayed in the market during both Trump and Biden terms.

Investing based on politics is not a good idea.

Agree; the market anticipation of and reaction to an election is short - maybe lasting a week at most after the election is over. Then, policy matters. One candidate has suggested raising corporate income taxes, capital gains taxes and creating a tax on unrealized gains. These require a willing congress, so divided government again favors the market. A unified government behind that candidate could have longer-term negative impacts on the market if those policies gain traction.

[2000cs]

Today’s markets underscore that the economy (and specifically potential FED action) is a much bigger driver of market movement than the election.

[ASAP]

serious bump early on lol... putting $$ now on an int rate cut soon again... and probably a new fed chairman

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

serious bump early on lol... putting $$ now on an int rate cut soon again... and probably a new fed chairman

Since CME Fedwatch is predicting a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut announced at Nov 7 meeting, this is not news.

As Powell ignored Trump's request in 2020 for negative interest rates, I doubt he will last beyond his term. But that is mid-2026. He can make a lot more money, with far less aggravation, in the private sector. Most economists are predicting that widespread tariffs would induce significant inflation, so I'd recommend strapping in for the rollercoaster ride.

What would you like to see? Higher rates? Lower rates? Or remain at present levels? And why? This question is for everyone, not directed solely at ASAP.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

What would you like to see? Higher rates? Lower rates? Or remain at present levels? And why? This question is for everyone, not directed solely at ASAP.

What is your view?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Since CME Fedwatch is predicting a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut announced at Nov 7 meeting, this is not news.

As Powell ignored Trump's request in 2020 for negative interest rates, I doubt he would stick around regardless. He can make a lot more money, with far less aggravation, in the private sector. Most economists are predicting that widespread tariffs would induce significant inflation, so I'd recommend strapping in for the rollercoaster ride.

What would you like to see? Higher rates? Lower rates? Or remain at present levels? And why? This question is for everyone, not directed solely at ASAP.

i genuinely do not have a view because i do not think we are in a stable economy...

while inflation has dropped; prices are still far higher than before... housing is thru the roof, as are interest rates and employment is slowly but surely faltering... the s&p seems to be thriving on hopes and dreams at this point...

if we do get tarrifs and tax cuts... technically this will cause even more inflation... and you and i both know there will be pressure to reduce rates.... party irrelevant there is no good future fix unfortunately that will be easy