Stock market tips and experiences

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

It is always important to separate the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market from the economy. And coming off 2023's stock market performance and YTD 2024, a pullback seems reasonable.

The FED has been signaling a rate reduction for months. A September cut was very much expected, based on inflation numbers, before this pullback.

I have used every pullback since the 1990's as a buying opportunity, sometimes employing the broader market, sometimes individual issues. It would be a mistake to draw any broad economic conclusions from this market activity. And a mistake to let political views impact investing decisions. Absolutely no one can predict the economic future. All that we have are backwards looking indicators - GDP, inflation, unemployment, employment - and the trend line they represent.

This may be a relevant data point - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/carr...-sell-off.html

I agree about drawing economic conclusions from market activity; the stock market is not the economy, but something of a poor predictor of the future of the economy.

In addition to the carry trade in your article and that I mentioned in a prior post, there is programmatic selling as various triggers hit (technical selling). That tends to be quick, sharp, and over done. Which we’ve seen some of already today (bouncing back part way). Remains to be seen whether sentiment gets negative and begins a full bear market. My bet is small correction (we may already be done with it, but will be volatile for a few days), because money needs a place to go and there still is no better than the US markets, broadly speaking.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

I think you meant lowering rates now would be a bad idea. I agree, but mainly because of the signal it sends about recession fears and not so much the reason you mention. Should have dropped 1/4 last meeting, will have to do that in September and may go farther if things don’t moderate.

I’m generally in the camp that this blows over and creates a buying opportunity. I don’t see it as the start of a sustained bear market - at least not yet. Check back with me in a year on that!

I agree with almost all of this. Still, a data-driven FED with a mandate, has no option but to lower rates. I would even submit that a lowering at the last meeting might have spurred the markets higher initially and resulted in an even bigger pullback now. It is all speculation.

Using lagging indicators is always going to result in short term dislocations. The alternative is to substitute predictions for data, only adding to the confusion. Totally agree on program trading. And that money needs to go somewhere. We know that this is not retail investors selling assets
either, in tandem, so rapidly.

I am not seeing any pattern to this selloff, with everything from large value to small growth getting hit.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

I agree with almost all of this. Still, a data-driven FED with a mandate, has no option but to lower rates. I would even submit that a lowering at the last meeting might have spurred the markets higher initially and resulted in an even bigger pullback now. It is all speculation.

Using lagging indicators is always going to result in short term dislocations. The alternative is to substitute predictions for data, only adding to the confusion. Totally agree on program trading. And that money needs to go somewhere. We know that this is not retail investors selling assets
either, in tandem, so rapidly.

I am not seeing any pattern to this selloff, with everything from large value to small growth getting hit.

I agree, even stocks that are fair value are dropping. Fine by me, I'll buy extra especially since I have 30 years to go. I haven't even looked at my portfolio today and won't. I believe in the companies I have.

I'm more worried about a true downturn hurting my actual businesses. The 08 down turn got us good but we are better prepared this time I believe. (I hope)

[tom2021]

BMW's EV are more popular in Europe now.
We have no doubt, they can produce better luxurious EV than Tesla.
BMWYY stocks down due to recall.
Is it a buy?

[bagekko]

Thought about buying the dip after the brake issue. True there are so many electrified BMWs in Europe. In Switzerland see a ton of i's and almost everything else is a PHEV. Got a brand new X5 50e last week and like it. I don't even think that all the EVs or PHEVs BMW has are sold in the US, I think there is so much demand in Europe there is no capacity left for the US, dk how much they send to Asia.

Originally Posted by tom2021

BMW's EV are more popular in Europe now.
We have no doubt, they can produce better luxurious EV than Tesla.
BMWYY stocks down due to recall.
Is it a buy?

[bagekko]

I really hope the rate cut tomorrow is 50bp else the market will drop a ton if 25bp, super unlikely its 75bp or 0.

[Donatello.]

What AI stocks are you buying these days & why? Looking at add at least 1 to my portfolio.

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by bagekko

I don't even think that all the EVs or PHEVs BMW has are sold in the US, I think there is so much demand in Europe there is no capacity left for the US, dk how much they send to Asia.

In 2023 the leading countries were:

China 32.3%
U.S. 15.6
Germany 10.7
UK 6.2
S. Korea 3.3

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-bmw-group/

[bagekko]

If you want high risk & reward; SMCI, ASML, AVGO.

I would stay away from Palantir, its way overhyped and my morals will not support a company which is tops for the govt spying on you. Looked at the company almost 2yrs ago when it was like $7 and said then stock is gonna blow up soon but just cant do it.

Originally Posted by Donatello.

What AI stocks are you buying these days & why? Looking at add at least 1 to my portfolio.

[tom2021]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

What AI stocks are you buying these days & why? Looking at add at least 1 to my portfolio.

SOXX, iShares Semiconductor ETF.
Portfolios include Nvidia.
I can't fully understand the financial accounting of big corporations.
Also, many CEO's made mistakes and brought down their corporation.

So, I invest in ETF instead. When the semiconductor sector shines, my investment thrive.
If one of them fail, my investment will not tank.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by bagekko

I really hope the rate cut tomorrow is 50bp else the market will drop a ton if 25bp, super unlikely its 75bp or 0.

we got 50 bips... and now the concern is... does the fed know something we don't or are we finally going to get accurate numbers as they relate to unemployment and actual consumption? This deep of a cut is worrying because it tells us something is up.

[DrVenture]

The market gets a bit skittish over changes. The numbers are good all around. 50bps is going to boost both equities and fixed income. Otherwise we have decent GDP numbers and good employment/unemployment numbers and inflation around 2.5%. I have no worries. I think the FED wants to stay ahead of the curve on this, so went bigger.

[Tyga11]

Looks like all the people holding cash have taken a serious L. You know who you are. You've missed out on an historic rally. I told you you were wrong.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Looks like all the people holding cash have taken a serious L. You know who you are. You've missed out on an historic rally. I told you you were wrong.

It's time IN the market, not timing the market.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

It's time IN the market, not timing the market.

Well we have had numerous people over the past year say the 'market is crashing' etc and they have been proven WRONG. Dangerously wrong in fact. Have fun with the 5% on your CD's. Some people can't handle market swings and they deserve what they get

[vreihen16]

One of my now-former co-workers laughed at me for throwing some fun money at LUNR when their stock dipped after their semi-successful moon landing back in the spring. I noticed during their landing telecast that they were using their own Earth-based communications network, and not leeching off of NASA's dishes like everyone else. Figuring that this was their bigger asset, I bought the dip.

Yesterday's news was that Intuitive Machines clinched a $4.8 billion navigation services contract from NASA for moon communications, and the stock went up over 60% since yesterday.

No store-brand mac and cheese for me this week.....

[DrVenture]

Good for you man!

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

we got 50 bips... and now the concern is... does the fed know something we don't or are we finally going to get accurate numbers as they relate to unemployment and actual consumption? This deep of a cut is worrying because it tells us something is up.

Powell conceded yesterday the numbers are fake and they are taking future measures to do their own analysis and make assumptions when Job reports come out.

The 50 is because they should have cut rates in July and realize that now.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Well we have had numerous people over the past year say the 'market is crashing' etc and they have been proven WRONG. Dangerously wrong in fact. Have fun with the 5% on your CD's. Some people can't handle market swings and they deserve what they get

I've stayed in the whole time (always have for 30 years) and even bought more in the last 5 years, but I fully believe a 15-20% drop is closing in fast. It's been WAY too long. You can only tweak the dials for so long. The crash will likely be the culmination of a number of things in the US as well as abroad.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I've stayed in the whole time (always have for 30 years) and even bought more in the last 5 years, but I fully believe a 15-20% drop is closing in fast. It's been WAY too long. You can only tweak the dials for so long. The crash will likely be the culmination of a number of things in the US as well as abroad.

I have been trimming as well.

My point is people who have 100% of their assets in T Bills / CD's / who have been predicting a crash now for 2 years.

They have LOST a substantial amount of money and deserve public humiliation.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Powell conceded yesterday the numbers are fake and they are taking future measures to do their own analysis and make assumptions when Job reports come out.

The 50 is because they should have cut rates in July and realize that now.

I watched him live and read the transcript this morning. He did not concede any such thing lol. Revisions to labor market data have happened for as long as they've captured labor market data. He said multiple times that we are close to full employment, the LFPR is strong and that when UE is too low it creates inflationary pressures.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

I watched him live and read the transcript this morning. He did not concede any such thing lol. Revisions to labor market data have happened for as long as they've captured labor market data. He said multiple times that we are close to full employment, the LFPR is strong and that when UE is too low it creates inflationary pressures.

CHAIR POWELL. So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data,
including the payroll numbers. We're not discarding those. I mean we'll certainly look at those,
but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the QCEW adjustment, which you referred to.