Manheim: Used vehicle prices lower in August

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by StradaRedlands

Anecdotally I don't see softening. I keep active searchers on CL/Car Gurus/AT running for some vehicles that could be in our future. High-mileage N52 cars for the most part. They're holding pretty solid, and more so, there just aren't very many of them like there were pre-pandemic. Mostly just auction cars on used car lots. Hardly any private party/enthusiast owned & maintained vehicles. At least the ones I follow.

Ignoring history I see

[StradaRedlands]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

Ignoring history I see

Oh I'm sure the market will get better for buyers, just not to where it was pre-pandemic. At least not for a while.
That sine wave is going to stretch out a bit IMHO.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks. Sounds like this is a curiosity or hobby for you.

Looking for input from people actively in the market and engaged in a transaction discussion with a car salesperson.

I am seeing comparably equipped, year, etc. units come into the market at lower prices than existing listings.

FWIW, I am routinely searching the market looking for my next "cheap" fun car and am regularly involved in finding trucks for work. Personal car market range in the 10-20k and work trucks in the 50-100k range.

And what I am seeing in the market is pricing on "top end" used cars, like 30-40k +, prices are coming down, but for the lower end used cars, like 20k and under, prices are staying fairly steady.

I recently sold my old truck for ~$35k a couple months back. 2017, fully loaded 90k miles. Similar trucks are now selling for the upper 20s. However, Trucks with less features or more miles that were selling for low 20s, are still going for low 20s.

With the price of new vehicles where they are, i think average price of a new car is in the upper 40s now, and with dealerships either having more inventory or over promising delivery times on orders or just people accepting now that in order to get a new car, you have to order and wait, the couple year old, low mileage cars arent in as high of demand. You no longer are forced to either pick up a year or 2 old vehicle at new car prices because there arent any new car options. But, the people that cant afford to drop 40k+ on a vehicle are still a very large segment of the market, and they are keeping the cheaper used car prices fairly steady.

You see the same in the housing market. Starter/entry level homes dont have near as much price fluctuation as higher end homes, because theyre are so many more people that are able to afford those.

[Autobacs]

just bought a 2019 F86 w/ 27.6K miles in mint condition with factory warranty to OCT 2023 for $66,995. My buddy ran the Manheim and he said the price is how much he would pay for it to resell at a profit at his dealership. 72k Retail (74K Retail per Car Fax).

[chassis]

Congrats on the transaction. Looks like you paid around 7%-8% below retail asking price: $67k vs $72k.

How did you do the negotiation? Did you know the salesperson?

[chassis]

New-Vehicle Inventory Closes September Up, Asking Prices Down
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...eptember-2022/

New and used prices are declining. Inventory for new and used is up.

Full size domestic brand pickup truck inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Buyers' market taking shape.

[hoki06]

I've been watching the market closely for a while now as we're in the truck market. I almost purchased a lightly used F150 in early 2021 as prices were rising and held off. I've been watching since and we're now planning to purchase either new or lightly used in spring/summer 2023. From a buyer's perspective these trends are promising but we'll see what happens over the winter.

Agreed with TheWatchGuy on pricing trends lately. The $30-40k+ vehicles seem to be coming down slightly, more affordable sub $20-25k stuff hasn't changed much.

[Mike00]

Originally Posted by hoki06

I've been watching the market closely for a while now as we're in the truck market. I almost purchased a lightly used F150 in early 2021 as prices were rising and held off. I've been watching since and we're now planning to purchase either new or lightly used in spring/summer 2023. From a buyer's perspective these trends are promising but we'll see what happens over the winter.

Agreed with TheWatchGuy on pricing trends lately. The $30-40k+ vehicles seem to be coming down slightly, more affordable sub $20-25k stuff hasn't changed much.

Wages are up on the low end of the economy (well all wages really) but with such a big jump in the hourly of lower income it’s probably a safe better that the low end of car market wil hav ea higher floor.

The same is going to happen with housing even in those areas (west coast) that have bigger adjustments to their markets. Low end will stay strong especially with so many first time buyers pushed out during covid.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by hoki06

I've been watching the market closely for a while now as we're in the truck market. I almost purchased a lightly used F150 in early 2021 as prices were rising and held off. I've been watching since and we're now planning to purchase either new or lightly used in spring/summer 2023. From a buyer's perspective these trends are promising but we'll see what happens over the winter.

Agreed with TheWatchGuy on pricing trends lately. The $30-40k+ vehicles seem to be coming down slightly, more affordable sub $20-25k stuff hasn't changed much.

My only problem with the 2023 trucks, is they have taken so many features out of them at this point, while raising the prices, that even with a good discount on MSRP, you are still getting screwed.

For example, when i ordered my F150 Lariat in Feb the MSRP was 67k. When it was finally delivered in August, MSRP was 73k, and some of the features had been deleted. When i just went to build a 23 on ford's site, the price was up to 75k, and it has less standard features than my 22 has.

My recommendation would be try to find an early 22 build. You'll at least get everything in the truck you should have gotten.

I predict that in 5 years down the road, a lot of these feature deleted trucks that people paid inflated MSRPs for, are gonna have terrible resale value. The fact that Ford deleted Nav and XM on F150s under a fully loaded Lariat, and are still charging upper 60s/low 70s for them is mind boggling. Its 2022, even if you use android auto/apple carplay for music and nav, every car should have those features like they all did 10 years ago.

[hoki06]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

My only problem with the 2023 trucks, is they have taken so many features out of them at this point, while raising the prices, that even with a good discount on MSRP, you are still getting screwed.

For example, when i ordered my F150 Lariat in Feb the MSRP was 67k. When it was finally delivered in August, MSRP was 73k, and some of the features had been deleted. When i just went to build a 23 on ford's site, the price was up to 75k, and it has less standard features than my 22 has.

My recommendation would be try to find an early 22 build. You'll at least get everything in the truck you should have gotten.

I predict that in 5 years down the road, a lot of these feature deleted trucks that people paid inflated MSRPs for, are gonna have terrible resale value. The fact that Ford deleted Nav and XM on F150s under a fully loaded Lariat, and are still charging upper 60s/low 70s for them is mind boggling. Its 2022, even if you use android auto/apple carplay for music and nav, every car should have those features like they all did 10 years ago.

I was aware things were deleted but admit I haven't fully researched yet since we're still at least 6-8 months away. I know auto start/stop has been deleted because it shows on the window stickers and honestly, I prefer them without that feature. I looked up the nav stuff you mentioned, that's significant and would keep me from purchasing one with that deleted, new or used.

I guess we'll see how things are in spring 2023. If features are still being deleted and no real pricing incentives return, i'll likely look at 2020 or 2021 low mileage used.

[hoki06]

Did more searching and they're now deleting standard options like heated steering wheel and heated side mirrors on MY23 F150 builds. You get a measly $185 removed from the purchase price for those two features removed. If that is still happening next spring/summer then I'll be searching for a lightly used 2021 Lariat and have to travel to bring one home.

[Alfisti]

I'd almost be willing to pay more to have all that shite deleted, most of it is nothing but intrusive problems.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by hoki06

I was aware things were deleted but admit I haven't fully researched yet since we're still at least 6-8 months away. I know auto start/stop has been deleted because it shows on the window stickers and honestly, I prefer them without that feature. I looked up the nav stuff you mentioned, that's significant and would keep me from purchasing one with that deleted, new or used.

I guess we'll see how things are in spring 2023. If features are still being deleted and no real pricing incentives return, i'll likely look at 2020 or 2021 low mileage used.

Originally Posted by hoki06

Did more searching and they're now deleting standard options like heated steering wheel and heated side mirrors on MY23 F150 builds. You get a measly $185 removed from the purchase price for those two features removed. If that is still happening next spring/summer then I'll be searching for a lightly used 2021 Lariat and have to travel to bring one home.

A lot of it is limited to lower trims, so if you are going with a higher trim, you wont miss out on a lot of it. One of the F150 forums has a good post listing things that have been removed. I cant remember which forum i saw it on though. The limited has the most things not deleted. But thats a 90k+ truck fully loaded.

Originally Posted by Alfisti

I'd almost be willing to pay more to have all that shite deleted, most of it is nothing but intrusive problems.

On a cheap truck, sure. On a 70-80k+ truck, no way.

[chassis]

More price reductions for preowned vehicles on my watch list. New vehicle listings are at similar or lower prices than slightly better optioned but 3 model year older used units. The market is confused and preowned prices will adjust lower.

Dealer salespeople are emailing me directly to let me know about pride reductions after telling me “no” to my initial suggestion for a lower price.

I see preowned prices going lower for the forseeable future. Comments?

p.s. Latest Cox/Manheim news release indicate price and sales volumes headed lower.

[Alfisti]

No one is arguing that prices have to drop, i don't think we are seeing this collapse you're predicting though. There is so much demand, interest rates be damned, and so little supply, we are a long, long way off of 2019 prices for pretty much anything in any segment.

[allinon72]

Originally Posted by chassis

More price reductions for preowned vehicles on my watch list. New vehicle listings are at similar or lower prices than slightly better optioned but 3 model year older used units. The market is confused and preowned prices will adjust lower.

Dealer salespeople are emailing me directly to let me know about pride reductions after telling me “no” to my initial suggestion for a lower price.

I see preowned prices going lower for the forseeable future. Comments?

p.s. Latest Cox/Manheim news release indicate price and sales volumes headed lower.

I've started engaging dealers about used trucks and none that I've encountered are willing to move off the price more than a few hundred dollars. Even after filling out credit apps (just to show I'm serious) they let me walk. Some don't even reply to an email or call, it's quite amazing. The biggest issue is going to be getting dealers back to reality after this gravy train, and that is going to take months or years IMO. Some of them still have cars that they paid too much for and literally can't move off the price even if they wanted to.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by allinon72

I've started engaging dealers about used trucks and none that I've encountered are willing to move off the price more than a few hundred dollars. Even after filling out credit apps (just to show I'm serious) they let me walk. Some don't even reply to an email or call, it's quite amazing. The biggest issue is going to be getting dealers back to reality after this gravy train, and that is going to take months or years IMO. Some of them still have cars that they paid too much for and literally can't move off the price even if they wanted to.

Seems like trucks are one of the segments that is still fairly hot, although Cox data says trucks have more days of inventory than any other segment. Prices will come down, it will just take time.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

No one is arguing that prices have to drop, i don't think we are seeing this collapse you're predicting though. There is so much demand, interest rates be damned, and so little supply, we are a long, long way off of 2019 prices for pretty much anything in any segment.

No one is talking about collapse or returning to pre-pandemic prices.

The market is correcting before our eyes. The industry data supports this, list price reductions support this and personal texts and emails to me from salespeople support this.

[hoki06]

The market is correcting as we're seeing but who knows where it will end up. I doubt we'll see 2019 pricing again unless we have a full-on economic crisis on our hands. If the last 2 years have taught me anything, I know better than to attempt to predict what the future holds.

I'll keep waiting, researching, and saving until we're ready then get the best deal I can within our budget when the time comes. I'll be ready to buy new but not if they're still deleting features. If that's the case I'll be searching for low mileage 2020 or 2021 models.

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by allinon72

I've started engaging dealers about used trucks and none that I've encountered are willing to move off the price more than a few hundred dollars. Even after filling out credit apps (just to show I'm serious) they let me walk. Some don't even reply to an email or call, it's quite amazing. The biggest issue is going to be getting dealers back to reality after this gravy train, and that is going to take months or years IMO. Some of them still have cars that they paid too much for and literally can't move off the price even if they wanted to.

The idiots will eventually lower the $ & take a loss on those cars like they always have...or send them to auction

[allinon72]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

The idiots will eventually lower the $ & take a loss on those cars like they always have...or send them to auction

Yes, eventually. But at least in the truck world we are several months away from that beginning. Both because of the time of year and until the slack is taken out of demand.

[chassis]

“Sending to auction”, the worn out chestnut of a threat of used car salesmen, makes no commercial sense and is BS.

Auction sales are wholesale, where dealers are selling to dealers, and margins are lower than selling to a retail customer. It’s a question of selling below retail quickly at auction, or selling less quickly for a higher margin than wholesale, aka “at auction”.