Official Tesla Talk Thread **No Politics**

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by pikkagtr

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

V8's for ever and EV's to the bin.

At this point EVs are a national security issue for the West as China has invented this industry and will soon take the lead ... some stats:

▸ TSLA leads the World in new EV sales accounting for ~20% of all new EVs sold

▸ VW is a distant 2nd with ~5% of all new EVs sold, but let's assume they'll do better

That sounds pretty damn good! USA! USA! Buuutttt ....


▸ China accounts for ~75% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ The USA is a distant 2nd with ~10% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ Europe is 3rd with ~5% of global lithium-ion battery production



Granted EU companies like Northvolt in Sweden and the governments themselves are trying to supercharge things, and then Canada has a big mining & startup scene, not to mention US efforts by Tesla and others ... it might help, but right now it doesn't look great ...

That said, Lithium isn't really scarce, it's just kinda hard to get, and the West has a decent supply; this is old but dirt is dirt:



The West will catch up or China will own the future of energy (and communications w/ 5G & robotics & AI )

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

At this point EVs are a national security issue for the West as China has invented this industry and will soon take the lead ... some stats:

▸ TSLA leads the World in new EV sales accounting for ~20% of all new EVs sold

▸ VW is a distant 2nd with ~5% of all new EVs sold, but let's assume they'll do better

That sounds pretty damn good! USA! USA! Buuutttt ....


▸ China accounts for ~75% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ The USA is a distant 2nd with ~10% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ Europe is 3rd with ~5% of global lithium-ion battery production



Granted EU companies like Northvolt in Sweden and the governments themselves are trying to supercharge things, and then Canada has a big mining & startup scene, not to mention US efforts by Tesla and others ... it might help, but right now it doesn't look great ...

That said, Lithium isn't really scarce, it's just kinda hard to get, and the West has a decent supply; this is old but dirt is dirt:



The West will catch up or China will own the future of energy (and communications w/ 5G & robotics & AI )

Interesting statistics,thank you for putting it in that quick format.
China is 75% producer of lithium batteries you say, my only concern otherwise is the use of child slave labour for the Cobalt used for it.
Around 60% of worlds supply comes from DR of Congo and young children are used in unregulated mines there.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

China is 75% producer of lithium batteries you say, my only concern otherwise is the use of child slave labour for the Cobalt used for it.

Well, good news then! Cobalt isn't required for lithium-ion batteries and soon won't be used in most average vehicles including Tesla ... it works likes this:

The battery has 3 pieces, the anode, cathode, and electrolyte:

▸ The anode stores power from the charger, so the materials determine charging time and, to a much less degree, range

▸ The cathode is where the power flows to from the anode during use so the materials determine the range & performance; ~40% of the cost is here.

▸ The electrolyte is a liquid salt solution that facilitates the power transfer between the terminals (the anode & cathode)


So back to the spendy cathode ... VW, as an example, is planning on 3 different chemistries to support different classes of vehicles. Right now, most automotive batteries, to your point, are NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt) though Tesla uses nickel, aluminum, cobalt.

Beyond the other things you stated, cobalt is $$$ and that's why that 40% of cost is in that cathode ... so VW is going to use other chemistries:

▷ FePO4 - iron phosphate, which gets rid of NMC altogether! Tesla is working on this too - the upside is WAY cheaper & can handle way more charge cycles ... but the downside is ~10-20% range/performance loss. Though for a low-cost commuter care who cares and more charge cycle durability in a commuter is a good trade-off!

▷ NM Get rid of the cobalt, cut the nickel down to minimal and use mostly manganese. VW will use this for mid-range vehicles and claims a 30% cost reduction with no compromises in terms of performance or range.

▷ NMC This one will be for niche low-volume heavy duty and high performance vehicles, but with a lot more nickel to increase the range & power.

On the anode side, VW, Tesla, and others have synthetic graphic which is cheaper and allows for fast charging (this is why Taycans can charge from 5% to 80% in 20 minutes)

Beyond that EVERYONE is working on solid state batteries, i.e., no electrolyte - beyond all kinds of other benefits, safety is a big one because current batteries can occasionally develop dendrites that are like little spikes that short circuit the battery and then

I like pictures so here's one from a QuantumScape presentation that shows the relative benefits of solid state LIons vs other chemistries:



The net-net is, I don't think cobalt will be used in any large quantities for automotive batteries going forward, and you can see a time where very little if any would be used.

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well, good news then! Cobalt isn't required for lithium-ion batteries and soon won't be used in most average vehicles including Tesla ... it works likes this:

The battery has 3 pieces, the anode, cathode, and electrolyte:

▸ The anode stores power from the charger, so the materials determine charging time and, to a much less degree, range

▸ The cathode is where the power flows to from the anode during use so the materials determine the range & performance; ~40% of the cost is here.

▸ The electrolyte is a liquid salt solution that facilitates the power transfer between the terminals (the anode & cathode)


So back to the spendy cathode ... VW, as an example, is planning on 3 different chemistries to support different classes of vehicles. Right now, most automotive batteries, to your point, are NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt) though Tesla uses nickel, aluminum, cobalt.

Beyond the other things you stated, cobalt is $$$ and that's why that 40% of cost is in that cathode ... so VW is going to use other chemistries:

▷ FePO4 - iron phosphate, which gets rid of NMC altogether! Tesla is working on this too - the upside is WAY cheaper & can handle way more charge cycles ... but the downside is ~10-20% range/performance loss. Though for a low-cost commuter care who cares and more charge cycle durability in a commuter is a good trade-off!

▷ NM Get rid of the cobalt, cut the nickel down to minimal and use mostly manganese. VW will use this for mid-range vehicles and claims a 30% cost reduction with no compromises in terms of performance or range.

▷ NMC This one will be for niche low-volume heavy duty and high performance vehicles, but with a lot more nickel to increase the range & power.

On the anode side, VW, Tesla, and others have synthetic graphic which is cheaper and allows for fast charging (this is why Taycans can charge from 5% to 80% in 20 minutes)

Beyond that EVERYONE is working on solid state batteries, i.e., no electrolyte - beyond all kinds of other benefits, safety is a big one because current batteries can occasionally develop dendrites that are like little spikes that short circuit the battery and then

I like pictures so here's one from a QuantumScape presentation that shows the relative benefits of solid state LIons vs other chemistries:



The net-net is, I don't think cobalt will be used in any large quantities for automotive batteries going forward, and you can see a time where very little if any would be used.

Good news then as far as Cobalt is concerned which brings my attention to next can o' worms in EV self drive cars and crashes when things go wrong demonstrated by the latest double fatality with a Prius going into a tree and the occupants burnt when the batteries ignited.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

Good news then as far as Cobalt is concerned which brings my attention to next can o' worms in EV self drive cars and crashes when things go wrong demonstrated by the latest double fatality with a Prius going into a tree and the occupants burnt when the batteries ignited.

Well more good news!

Level 5 self-driving systems (i.e., a human driver couldn't take over) for passenger vehicles ain't gonna happen (and self-drive ain't just EVs). Everything else is just humans being stupid as has been the case since the wheel was invented:



I mean, if you put flammable explody shit in a tank, strap it to a frame w/ wheels, and tell humans it goes fast because fire ... well those humans gonna eventually explode themselves amiright?




As for autonomous vehicles, THOSE will definitely be around. I took this video a few weeks ago by my local library:



It was delivering food from a local restaurant.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Captain Blood

And check out the dealership going in across the highway near me:

https://www.kandiamerica.com/

Hey America: knock, knock
who's there?
The Chinese.
The Chinese who?
The muthafuckin Chinese who wanna eat your lunch.



Kandi America

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well more good news!

Level 5 self-driving systems (i.e., a human driver couldn't take over) for passenger vehicles ain't gonna happen (and self-drive ain't just EVs). Everything else is just humans being stupid as has been the case since the wheel was invented:



I mean, if you put flammable explody shit in a tank, strap it to a frame w/ wheels, and tell humans it goes fast because fire ... well those humans gonna eventually explode themselves amiright?




As for autonomous vehicles, THOSE will definitely be around. I took this video a few weeks ago by my local library:



It was delivering food from a local restaurant.

At least the battery didn't ignite in the Lambo

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

At least the battery didn't ignite in the Lambo

I imagine when you're burning alive that's the kind of stuff you think about. Glad this isn't a battery fire I'm burning in. At least I can die knowing that.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

At least the battery didn't ignite in the Lambo

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

I imagine when you're burning alive that's the kind of stuff you think about. Glad this isn't a battery fire I'm burning in. At least I can die knowing that.

If there's one principle that defines the lives of EV-haters, it's a commitment to public safety.

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

If there's one principle that defines the lives of EV-haters, it's a commitment to public safety.

Wait wait I like that food delivery robot on wheels but not sure if feasible for built up places like say Harlem or Chicago SC idk.

[jmack]

Plaid+ Officially Canceled - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/elon...laid-plus.html

[KRS_SN]

sorry

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

sorry

I think that offends me less than a billionaire trying to get it up to orbit and hold an elevation for 3 minutes



But, I gotta admit, as male midlife crises go, holding a 3 minute elevation without ejection is a pretty baller power move.

[KRS_SN]

@GrussGott
don't know whether or not to respect a guy who had a beautiful wife and went for someone who looks more like him
edit after posting this I realized that it could be either of them.

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I think that offends me less than a billionaire trying to get it up to orbit and hold an elevation for 3 minutes



But, I gotta admit, as male midlife crises go, holding a 3 minute elevation without ejection is a pretty baller power move.

Jeff Bezos CEO of Amazon I believe.

[GrussGott]

To appease* the "but lithium is a scarce resource" crowd, next month CATL is releasing a sodium-ion battery to compete with Lithium-Ion:

CATL will launch EV batteries made of sodium-ion around July, the company's founder and chairman Robin Zeng said at the company's shareholder meeting, CnEVPost reported.

With the innovation that would come with sodium-ion cell battery technology, the cost of batteries will also likely go up, Zeng reportedly said.

The sodium-ion battery CATL is planning to produce could roll out from its 21C Innovation Lab, in Ningde, Fujian province, which the company built in 2020 to focus on R&D of next-gen batteries

Sodium-ion batteries are a good news / bad news thing:

(1.) Bad News: Lithium prices
Lithium is common, but deep, so it's hard to get & requires massive mining ops which are expensive, slow to stand up, require massive funding & risk. That causes lithium prices to fluctuate because there's no ability to meet spikes in demand so get low prices during gluts like 2018-2021 which are now turning into price spikes. Sodium-ion will exacerbate this by lowering lithium demand, thus disincenting new mines.

(2.) Bad News: Sodium-Ion Price & Performance
While sodium is common, na-ion batteries under-perform li-ion (esp a lower energy density), which is why li-ion is used in the first place. Further, na-ion will be comparatively expensive, however over time that price will come down just like it did for li-ion. That said, 15 years ago li-ion wasn't considered viable in price & perf for cars, i.e., na-ion will advance.

(3.) Good News: Lower Lithium Demand
Lower energy density in na-ion means bigger heavier batteries which means, for now, probably not a good solution for cars ... BUT a GREAT solution for peaker plants, industry, powerwalls, business, community microgrids, data centers, etc and that means lots more lithium available for cars and probably falling prices.

(4.) Good News: Sodium is Common
Using a very common, easy to source material for high-volume batteries is long-term a good thing, especially if energy density & performance can be improved, which, at scale, it likely would be.

[KRS_SN]

I wonder if someone who is on alibaba/China backed manufactures something cheap and effective which performs and gets 5 star reviews and sells for a while.
And then bosch Siemens aeg miele etc come in charge a 25% premium and blasts the cheapo guy out because they are quality manufacturers and the cheapo guy is an innovator.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

I wonder if someone who is on alibaba/China backed manufactures something cheap and effective which performs and gets 5 star reviews and sells for a while.
And then bosch Siemens aeg miele etc come in charge a 25% premium and blasts the cheapo guy out because they are quality manufacturers and the cheapo guy is an innovator.

Ha, well I'm a broken record but right around the time Tesla was starting up, the Chinese government funded 1000+ BEV startups! That's been whittled down to ~400, and the goal is about 16 survivors. (Westerners were too busy arguing about Tesla to notice )

And China is super flexible: their preference is to have their companies making the BEVs & supplying the BEV automakers, but they're just as comfy hosting the automakers and suppliers, i.e., Tesla & like Apple.

And further, China is super happy to have a bunch of Western cultural separatists arguing about green this/that, global warming, and similar rot while they quietly flank the entire Western transportation industry.

[GrussGott]

And in a related story, why does it seem like, more & more, Porsche is quietly using BEVs to chart their own path, which is away from VW corporate strategy?

“The battery cell is the combustion chamber of the future. As a new Porsche subsidiary, the Cellforce Group will be instrumental in driving forward the research, development, production and sale of high-performance battery cells,” says Oliver Blume, Chairman of the Executive Board at Porsche. “This joint venture allows us to position ourselves at the forefront of global competition in developing the most powerful battery cell and make it the link between the unmistakable Porsche driving experience and sustainability. This is how we shape the future of the sports car.”

[GrussGott]

Well one thing is clear: the market REALLY likes shorting BEV companies:

[GrussGott]

diess wins, expect better than mediocre BEVs to happen