Stock market tips and experiences

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Crystal ball says this now, we should sell off abit as we are over bought on VST basis but this will be very short lived...then we head up again to near 1950-70(I take off my long hedges at this point)...then the bear re-emerges and we see some strong selling again making new lows.

JMHO.

Very short term sell has commenced...but it wont last long, as we need one more push up to the levels mentioned above...then the real selling begins imho.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Strong resistance up ahead at 195. Strong support is still holding strong at 180

When that head/shoulders breaks down at 180 you know whats going to happen right?...the flip of that H/S....

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by mact3333

When that head/shoulders breaks down at 180 you know whats going to happen right?...the flip of that H/S....

I'm with you on that Daily is getting ugly.. Rising wedge..

Are you holding any inverse ETFs? I'm going to start a position in SH.

[John 070]

I haven't played around in about 3 yrs. But last Fri. I bought twtr for $15.67, and I sold it yesterday for $17.81. Coulda squeezed it for another 3.5% yesterday but that's not usually how it works....I usually treat this money like going to the casino, just take it off the table rather than try again....made just over a grand. Buddy says small potatoes...I know.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Crystal ball says this now, we should sell off abit as we are over bought on VST basis but this will be very short lived...then we head up again to near 1950-70(I take off my long hedges at this point)...then the bear re-emerges and we see some strong selling again making new lows.

JMHO.

Started to peel off the long hedges near 1945...top was 1947(130 pt spx swing) close enough to my 1950 target....selling commences right on cue, now we are at 1897.....

Every swing for past 1-2 months essentially captured...please do not mess with my Edgar Cayce crystal ball...jmho of course...

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Started to peel off the long hedges near 1945...top was 1947(130 pt spx swing) close enough to my 1950 target....selling commences right on cue, now we are at 1897.....

Every swing for past 1-2 months essentially captured...please do not mess with my Edgar Cayce crystal ball...jmho of course...

Anybody who would have shorted off of this recommendation would have gotten their head ripped off in the afternoon.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Anybody who would have shorted off of this recommendation would have gotten their head ripped off in the afternoon.

You mean like 30 pts off the 300 pts I have called so far?......where were you when I called ST bottom near 1820?...I called top at 1950-70 and we get to 1947 and we close today at 1930 and you're complaining ...you can do better.

Still no calls from you??..unlike you, I make my calls days to weeks in advance, I don't show up to criticize after the mkt closes lol.

Well, make your call "now" where mkts will be in few weeks...time stamp it now...ask me to and I will gladly do it right now lol....

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by mact3333

You mean like 30 pts off the 300 pts I have called so far?......where were you when I called ST bottom near 1820?...I called top at 1950-70 and we get to 1947 and we close today at 1930 and you're complaining ...you can do better.

Still no calls from you??..unlike you, I make my calls days to weeks in advance, I don't show up to criticize after the mkt closes lol.

Well, make your call "now" where mkts will be in few weeks...time stamp it now...ask me to and I will gladly do it right now lol....

The thing is your "predictions" are not that remarkable when they are at technical levels that most professionals know. When one support breaks, the next target is another level. Same goes for resistance (durrrrrr). The real key is to MAKE MONEY on your calls. Walking the walk instead of just talking. Something I think you don't do. Hence why today you were very wrong (dead money wrong).

So here is my analysis along the lines of how your "crystal ball" sees it.

Today was an interesting and somewhat important day. Let's just use the S&P for this one. The finish above 1925 indicates a lack of conviction shorting, with maybe a bit of buying mixed in. The clear resistance around 1945 will remain an overhang, unless/until it is violated. Here is the interesting setup. There is an inverse head and shoulder pattern setting up with the key being if the second shoulder is formed at 1869ish. The reason I say "ish" is the zone is between 1869-1873. Any drop below that will open the floodgates and we will be making new lows (1780ish followed by 1567). The flattening of the Russell 2000 is showing signs of upward strength, though with resistance at 1030. This is a good/interesting sign for the S&P. Possible risk on coming. Weakening in Utes, Telecom, and Staples are showing this too.

So what is my thinking? If the S&P breaks through 1869 all bets are to the downside. If it holds and retraces back to the 1925 - 1950 range there is a strong possibility we rip up to the 2030 area. Wanna know what is really interesting about this? The time frame for the completion of this movement looks to fall around the Fed meeting in mid March. Central bank (ECB, BoJ, BOE, maybe sprinkle in some PBoC, capped off by the Fed) rhetoric/data will determine the setup over the next few weeks.

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Crystal ball says this now, we should sell off abit as we are over bought on VST basis but this will be very short lived...then we head up again to near 1950-70(I take off my long hedges at this point)...then the bear re-emerges and we see some strong selling again making new lows.

JMHO.

Originally Posted by e90m305

I disagree. I think we hit bottom and it's quite a ways up from here.

Originally Posted by mact3333

Fair enough, you must think we are in secular bull still where I think tide has changed and we are in secular bear.

We shall see...

Bro - It's been nothing but up up up since I made this call on the 17th. DOW up 200 points today alone. Keep in mind I'm not an expert or a know-it-all, but I've been around long enough to know that when most people start with the gloom an doom about the market going down, it rarely does. I've been hearing this since 2009.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

The thing is your "predictions" are not that remarkable when they are at technical levels that most professionals know. When one support breaks, the next target is another level. Same goes for resistance (durrrrrr). The real key is to MAKE MONEY on your calls. Walking the walk instead of just talking. Something I think you don't do. Hence why today you were very wrong (dead money wrong).

So here is my analysis along the lines of how your "crystal ball" sees it.

Today was an interesting and somewhat important day. Let's just use the S&P for this one. The finish above 1925 indicates a lack of conviction shorting, with maybe a bit of buying mixed in. The clear resistance around 1945 will remain an overhang, unless/until it is violated. Here is the interesting setup. There is an inverse head and shoulder pattern setting up with the key being if the second shoulder is formed at 1869ish. The reason I say "ish" is the zone is between 1869-1873. Any drop below that will open the floodgates and we will be making new lows (1780ish followed by 1567). The flattening of the Russell 2000 is showing signs of upward strength, though with resistance at 1030. This is a good/interesting sign for the S&P. Possible risk on coming. Weakening in Utes, Telecom, and Staples are showing this too.

So what is my thinking? If the S&P breaks through 1869 all bets are to the downside. If it holds and retraces back to the 1925 - 1950 range there is a strong possibility we rip up to the 2030 area. Wanna know what is really interesting about this? The time frame for the completion of this movement looks to fall around the Fed meeting in mid March. Central bank (ECB, BoJ, BOE, maybe sprinkle in some PBoC, capped off by the Fed) rhetoric/data will determine the setup over the next few weeks.

Then you and I finally agree on something...but instead of saying things like "if" , I am saying its already set in motion...we will be heading down.

Been calling for 1950-70 for 2 weeks now and we just got it, we shall be heading down next week..on our way to making those new lows...dont assume what I will be making and not making, all you need to know is that most of my calls have been dead on....if you think this is easy, just make the calls ahead of time like I do...not things like if we clear this we go to here and if we cant hold this we drop to here type of stuff...real specific predictions based on your analysis.

What you just said above about the mkt's is what you are accusing me of, a lot of what ifs based on technical levels but no actual predictions/convictions...well duh if mkt cant hold 1870 we will free fall...."and if we hold and retrace to 1925-50"???...we're already at 1960ish now...and 2030?..thats only like 2 bullish days of action...guess I think more big picture.

Just to be clear, I think the big reversal coming next week and we are heading down...if we make new all time highs than I am wrong, but I will be the first to admit I am wrong , something many professionals won't even do.

I think you expect a lot from a car MB.....

[Rich150001]

Originally Posted by John 070

I haven't played around in about 3 yrs. But last Fri. I bought twtr for $15.67, and I sold it yesterday for $17.81. Coulda squeezed it for another 3.5% yesterday but that's not usually how it works....I usually treat this money like going to the casino, just take it off the table rather than try again....made just over a grand. Buddy says small potatoes...I know.

Nice! Social media/growth/momentum stocks are tricky. I've been toying with a social media stock, "MEET" over the past couple of weeks with some substantial 25%+ gains. Just sold today since they release earnings on Monday. I'm not one to typically gamble on earnings reports in general.

[Frozen]

Tom Lee: These factors point to higher stocks

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/26/tom-l...er-stocks.html

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Been calling for 1950-70 for 2 weeks now and we just got it, we shall be heading down next week..on our way to making those new lows...dont assume what I will be making and not making, all you need to know is that most of my calls have been dead on....if you think this is easy, just make the calls ahead of time like I do..

We should probably lock/close this thread with a disclaimer for anyone who stumbles into it to not take mact3333's advice. Stocks up 300 points today.

[ScarecrowBoat]

Originally Posted by e90m305

We should probably lock/close this thread with a disclaimer for anyone who stumbles into it to not take mact3333's advice. Stocks up 300 points today.

He seems to know what he's looking at, at least much more than most, but still calling highs and lows repeatedly is impossible and he continues to claim to be able to. Take his advice with a grain of salt as you would anybody else.

[Frozen]

Originally Posted by ScarecrowBoat

He seems to know what he's looking at, at least much more than most, but still calling highs and lows repeatedly is impossible and he continues to claim to be able to. Take his advice with a grain of salt as you would anybody else.

He definitely knows what he is talking about and has experience in the industry but he's over confident with his calls.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by mact3333

but I will be the first to admit I am wrong

you guys notice how he completely disappears when he is wrong

[mact3333]

lol...I noticed you guys disappeared when I was right too....

Timing wasn't right but in the end the mkt will fix it for me...I will be off by a week most likely...is that really a big deal in the big scheme of things.?..,.if you think so you are trading very short term....getting worked up for a 30pt SPX day?...really?...

I will do roll call in 2 weeks ok...I tell you what, if we make new all time highs before we hit 1700's on SPX I will never post on this thread ever again and we can close it down ok?...thats a promise....

But if we close into the 1700's within the month(I will guess 2-3 weeks from now), you guys either leave or stfu for at least a week ok?....

And yes I still think we see 1200 SPX a year from now...might be a bold statement but at least I will take a stand and make some calls based on my own charts and theories rather than spew empty criticisms(still not a single call).

See you guys in 2 weeks.

[tc328]

To ease the tension here

Is anyone trading oil? I did mention oil price to go back around $40 p/b after hitting $20s

Ride the uwti train it should go to mid $40s and then might see a drop back to 30s 2nd to 3rd quarter...then it will go up up up

[-BEASTMW-]

Originally Posted by mact3333

And yes I still think we see 1200 SPX a year from now...might be a bold statement but at least I will take a stand and make some calls based on my own charts and theories rather than spew empty criticisms(still not a single call).

What is your rationale behind that feeling? Just wondering. I agree the bull market is aging quite a bit and stocks are expensive, but that's a -40% swing, which seems to reflect a bonafide recession. Recessions are most often caused by unemployment, and that's looking pretty darn good right now in the U.S. Just curious about the reasons for your convictions. Thanks.

[EstorilM]

Originally Posted by tc328

To ease the tension here

Is anyone trading oil? I did mention oil price to go back around $40 p/b after hitting $20s

Ride the uwti train it should go to mid $40s and then might see a drop back to 30s 2nd to 3rd quarter...then it will go up up up

Ive had USO, UWTI, and COP for a few weeks now. Up about 30%

[qba335i]

Originally Posted by -BEASTMW-

What is your rationale behind that feeling? Just wondering. I agree the bull market is aging quite a bit and stocks are expensive, but that's a -40% swing, which seems to reflect a bonafide recession. Recessions are most often caused by unemployment, and that's looking pretty darn good right now in the U.S. Just curious about the reasons for your convictions. Thanks.

Have you checked the labor participation rate recently and/or the quality of the "new" jobs (FT vs PT)?

[-BEASTMW-]

Originally Posted by qba335i

Have you checked the labor participation rate recently and/or the quality of the "new" jobs (FT vs PT)?

I agree it's far from ideal, but still a steady recovery. The economy isn't great, but it's alright and moving in the right direction.