Stock market tips and experiences

[BayMoWe335]

I have to say, the AAPL selling has gotten ridiculous, but still somewhat scary. In the end, a stock is only as good as its price on the market.

The valuation at current levels just seems too cheap given a 112% y/y growth in China, 35% overall increase in y/y earnings, a $200b cash hoard and general smartphone domination, particularly in their share of profit (90%+).

It just seems this has nothing to do with the company and more about pure manipulation by the heavy hands wanting it down.

The S&P trades at 20 times earnings while AAPL languishes at barely 10 with better growth than GOOGL or AMZN that trade at ungodly P/E multiples. I know AAPL is getting almost too big to grow forever, but they continually impress.

I mean, GOOGL announces some shell game in creating a parent company and the shares rally 5% on the news? It's this kind of crap that not only pisses me off, but makes me wonder if AAPL's true value will ever be realized. It will never be looked at as this high momentum growth stock (despite being one and actually delivering on REAL profits) unlike AMZN.

It pisses me off Cook and his minions don't do more to "talk" the stock up like Page, Zuckerberg, and Bezos continually do.

"We're interested in cars" or "Tesla intrigues Apple" or "Apple wants to get into your home" or "you haven't seen anything yet" would at least get some buzz going and get people excited about the stock. I think Cook is a good executor, but it's wasted on Wallstreet...it's almost like they've grown tired of the unbelievable numbers and it's just, "OK, let's see if you can do that again."

Meanwhile, AMZN makes <$1b profit and the stock surges 17% from already crazy levels. It's just so frustrating.

I agree with Icahn...AAPL should be trading at $200 TODAY, yet it dropped 5% and trades at essentially half that. As they say, the price is the price. Nothing else matters.

[ska///235i]

I think AAPL needs to gather all its international $ and pay up uncle sam

Then stock price will sky rocket to $300

You cant own the big boss money lol

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by ska///235i

I think AAPL needs to gather all its international $ and pay up uncle sam

Then stock price will sky rocket to $300

You cant own the big boss money lol

They are not going to do that...they throw off $10b+ cash every quarter, so they don't need that for anything at the moment. However, if they were going to make a big acquisition or shake things up, they might consider it.

The 35% tax on almost $200b would be incredibly too high. They are holding out hope until the government grants some kind of "tax holiday" for companies bringing home cash. There is almost $2T overseas and this could be a nice boost to the US economy.

[ASBSECU E93]

This is just getting absurd....

[Myrder]

AAPL is always whipped down for no good reason. It's the way it is, oh beat earnings but not expectations, whip down 10%, oh did awesome but we wanted fantastic, whip down 5%.

[ska///235i]

Doesnt the Swiss bank own 9 mil shares of AAPL

Not that it means anything but you have a bank holding billion $ in shares plus activist like Icahn....who knows??

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by ska///235i

Doesnt the Swiss bank own 9 mil shares of AAPL

Not that it means anything but you have a bank holding billion $ in shares plus activist like Icahn....who knows??

I follow AAPL very closely and can assure you, neither the Swiss Bank nor Icahn are selling AAPL.

My conspiracy theory is that the selling is not only the usual manipulation in the stock and underhanded deals to get in lower, I believe AAPL itself might not be buying back shares until the price drops to their liking.

AAPL has the biggest buyback program and can prop up their own shares if they buyback stock. You never know where they are buying, but I can bet AAPL is quite happy buying back at these levels. The snapback today could be an indicator the buying has started.

As a longterm shareholder, I am fine with it too.

By the way, a short squeeze may also be on the horizon.

[ASBSECU E93]

Yes - I stray from AAPL for some short term gains when I see opportunity, but for every reason discussed above (and more not mentioned), I always come running back to safety

[sterile stork]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

By the way, a short squeeze may also be on the horizon.

I'm not afraid to admit I'm not too clear as to what you mean by a short squeeze...care to explain? Many thanks.

[PoorLurker]

Originally Posted by sterile stork

I'm not afraid to admit I'm not too clear as to what you mean by a short squeeze...care to explain? Many thanks.

I believe he is referring to "squeezing short sellers"

Short sellers buy at a price with the expectation that it will start going down.

Once the price goes in a direction where the "shorts" don't feel comfortable, they start "buying to cover" their shares. This often causes people to start buying them up. When people are buying the shares, the bid/ask price continues to go up "squeezing" the shorts out of their positions because they are trying to "cover" their minimal gains or their losses. Kind of like when people start panicking and the price continues to plummet but the price goes up instead.

[MrPrena]

OIL ETFs.

[ScarecrowBoat]

Originally Posted by Myrder

AAPL is always whipped down for no good reason. It's the way it is, oh beat earnings but not expectations, whip down 10%, oh did awesome but we wanted fantastic, whip down 5%.

Apple's price is based on "fantastic" earnings. It's getting hurt as people start to realize that it's days of rabid growth are ending. 2 years ago when its market cap was "only" 400B it had some room. As it encroaches on 700+ it just can't go up much more as it will never grow large enough to sustain the income needed to justify that large of a market cap over a reasonable time frame. If you buy Apple stock right now, it could be well over 15 years before it could even conceivably double again (if at all) whereas other tech companies aren't as solid financially but have much more room to grow.

[ska///235i]

Originally Posted by ScarecrowBoat

Apple's price is based on "fantastic" earnings. It's getting hurt as people start to realize that it's days of rabid growth are ending. 2 years ago when its market cap was "only" 400B it had some room. As it encroaches on 700+ it just can't go up much more as it will never grow large enough to sustain the income needed to justify that large of a market cap over a reasonable time frame. If you buy Apple stock right now, it could be well over 15 years before it could even conceivably double again (if at all) whereas other tech companies aren't as solid financially but have much more room to grow.

Wells that only if they dont make any changes (just sell phones, etc)

With all that money they need to do other things...become the cell phone carrier that also offer music/vidoes in the same plan....make electric cars as what the rumors said. Make family affordable iphones (to take down china competition)....there are so many things they can do with all the assets

Apple is not dumb, they have plans and Im waiting for that to happen lol

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by ska///235i

Wells that only if they dont make any changes (just sell phones, etc)

With all that money they need to do other things...become the cell phone carrier that also offer music/vidoes in the same plan....make electric cars as what the rumors said. Make family affordable iphones (to take down china competition)....there are so many things they can do with all the assets

Apple is not dumb, they have plans and Im waiting for that to happen lol

Well sa[i]d.

I think Apple will probably need to acquire some companies, instead of R&D spending into hot stuff (but zero revenue creating) items like VR/Augmented, self driving car, drone, whatever wall st retail investor cult are into.

[SunnyD]

Originally Posted by ScarecrowBoat

Apple's price is based on "fantastic" earnings.

I would believe this if the forward multiple was in the stratosphere, but it trades somewhere around 10-12x forward earnings. I do agree with your assessment on the law of large numbers and its impact on Apple, however.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by ScarecrowBoat

Apple's price is based on "fantastic" earnings. It's getting hurt as people start to realize that it's days of rabid growth are ending. 2 years ago when its market cap was "only" 400B it had some room. As it encroaches on 700+ it just can't go up much more as it will never grow large enough to sustain the income needed to justify that large of a market cap over a reasonable time frame. If you buy Apple stock right now, it could be well over 15 years before it could even conceivably double again (if at all) whereas other tech companies aren't as solid financially but have much more room to grow.

Not sure why fantastic is in quotes. AAPL's earnings are in reality, nothing short of fantastic. They are insane.

Agreed, AAPL will need to continue to look to other areas for growth, but guess what? They can buy growth. And it's insane what they can buy in cash alone. They could buy a TON moron if they exchanged stock, used cash, and even borrowed. Just looking at cash here...

They could buy, NFLX, TSLA, and IBM. Think about that, they could buy IBM, NFLX, and TSLA almost entirely in cash. (this ignores a premium that probably would have to be paid, but looks at current market cap).

WIth $200b+ they could buy the entire Walt Disney Company.

And guess what again? They make $10b in profit every single quarter and it's growing. Their growth is actually incredible (35% in earnings y/y) and they still have China and India to grow.

Not saying this is the perfect company, but the numbers are insane. The ecosystem and "Stickiness" of their customers are insane. Macbook has tons of room to run.

iPad has room in enterprise (partnering with IBM right now).

The watch is not done. People forget the iPhone wasn't even a smash hit in the beginning. It takes time. It takes apps. It takes marketing and tweaking. They can make a nice little business out of the watch.

They can also drop a bombshell that they are buying TSLA and building a car by 2020 and I guarantee the stock would immediately go to $150+, maybe higher.

Wallstreet wants a story. While I criticize AAPL for not hyping the stock more, they can turn that around by just dropping a few bombshells while also crushing the smartphone industry.

I'd say if you have the balls and the patience, hold AAPL because there could be some insane news around the corner. Their earnings and cash position are too powerful for them to just whither away.

iPhone is stronger than ever...nothing has changed except the stock price and everyone knows AAPL is one of if not the most manipulated stock on Wallstreet.

[SheaButter]

Originally Posted by PoorLurker

I believe he is referring to "squeezing short sellers"

Short sellers buy at a price with the expectation that it will start going down.

Once the price goes in a direction where the "shorts" don't feel comfortable, they start "buying to cover" their shares. This often causes people to start buying them up. When people are buying the shares, the bid/ask price continues to go up "squeezing" the shorts out of their positions because they are trying to "cover" their minimal gains or their losses. Kind of like when people start panicking and the price continues to plummet but the price goes up instead.

To compound on this, typically it's not so much a strategy a single small group makes. It's usually a MM or the actual company holding on to PR until just the right time to trap. Companies that "whore" out PRs aren't really able to trap shorts since the shorts know exactly what's going on. Transparency isn't ALWAYS a good thing in the market

[Needbmwpartzz]

I predict bad things for Apple.
Don't say I didn't warn everyone!

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by Needbmwpartzz

I predict bad things for Apple.
Don't say I didn't warn everyone!

If they don't have something new streamline of revenue i-whatever, I would agree. People who are in AAPL are already speculating they will have Prev Q earning per Q + ~5% QoQ growth.

[Needbmwpartzz]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

If they don't have something new streamline of revenue i-whatever, I would agree. People who are in AAPL are already speculating they will have Prev Q earning per Q + ~5% QoQ growth.

Whatever happens...it will be interesting

[PoorLurker]

Originally Posted by SheaButter

To compound on this, typically it's not so much a strategy a single small group makes. It's usually a MM or the actual company holding on to PR until just the right time to trap. Companies that "whore" out PRs aren't really able to trap shorts since the shorts know exactly what's going on. Transparency isn't ALWAYS a good thing in the market

nice addition!

I actually don't know much about stock trading. Am still learning. There just seems to be so much to learn and my beginner's luck is wearing off, haha.

[carve]

I'm curious of your guy's opinions on this video. It argues that government rules have the stock market hyper inflated from its fundamentals, encouraging the chasing of stock price at the expense of long-term value, and one day it'll come crashing down...