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03-23-2021, 09:09 PM | #419 |
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You know, bundling gets me thinking about who EVs are going to disrupt/bankrupt beyond the legacy ICE manufacturers ... and next in line are the independent dealerships!
Independent dealerships are a big deal in the US and Europe because these are huge businesses (like $100B total each?) ... and yet forces are quickly aligning to destroy them: (1.) Digitalization, i.e., online sales like Tesla, buying directly from auto manufacturers at the expense of dealerships. (2.) Uber, Lyft, MyDriver, Japan Taxi, and other mobility services are cutting into new car sales, especially for younger customers (i.e., the historically higher volume cheaper cars ... that market may evaporate). (3.) EVs sales are starting to j-curve & EVs require less maintenance and fewer replacement parts which cuts into dealer service & repair revenue. (4.) Autonomous driving will (likely?) result in fewer accidents also cutting into repair revenue (though in Norway, insurance reports Teslas had an accident rate of 20.4% in 2018 vs 13.5% for all EVs & 9% for ICE!) Dealerships will have to transform into exhibition, test, & turn over centers ...I have no idea how much revenue, say, a Tesla dealership / service center makes, but I'd guess it's a lot less than a legacy ICE dealership ... The economics of dealerships are about to get batshit-crazy as the industry tries to consume 3 tectonic industry shifts simultaneously: ICE-to-EV, mobility services, autonomous driving.
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03-24-2021, 05:24 PM | #420 | |
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• The low-end market hardware commoditizes Similar to the android market: there's a software winner, but the hardware is contract MFR'd. Maybe mostly mobility service fleet vehicles, but dedicated vehicles in rural areas. Most of the vehicle, if not all, is recyclable and maybe even, with incentives and contracts, free. • The mid-market goes semi-premium This would be your iPhone car market, current Tesla / 3-series / c-class / Mach-e buyers as well as CUV versions. Pickups & SUVs would be here too, though would have a wider range of options from budget to premium. This market would have OS choice as well as premium materials and design, with contract subsidies available if, say, you choose Apple iCar OS. • The high-end premium market is where the action is This will be your sports cars & fancy slabs - everything from Taycans, GT3 RSs, to S-classes & X7s. This is where all the profits are and there'll be innovations here like super-caps, geared drive motors, fancy management software, solid state batteries (of whatever high-tech battery FOTM), connectivity, etc. I think all the big action moves here ... something that we've been missing for 10-15 years really. I think E90 development era. But, just spitballin ... what do you think? |
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03-24-2021, 06:31 PM | #421 | ||
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03-24-2021, 07:19 PM | #422 | ||
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Bundling is good. Convenience is owning a car not having to charge it and paying $1000 for a second hand one which is 15 years old and running it for 3 years paying for the odd tyre and oil change. That's the stumbling block of EVs. |
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03-25-2021, 06:31 AM | #423 |
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It wasn't a law; it was a declaration by the Governor. Not all businesses were shut down. That's the point.
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
Last edited by Efthreeoh; 03-25-2021 at 09:19 AM.. |
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03-25-2021, 07:51 AM | #424 | |
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You know, like plugging your phone in every day to charge...plug your car in every night to charge it. Have a full range every time I leave the house, something I don’t get with ICE.
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03-25-2021, 09:16 AM | #425 | |
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And it's not like recharging a phone because you can still use the phone while it is recharging, you can't drive an EV when it is plugged into the grid. Last edited by Efthreeoh; 03-25-2021 at 09:23 AM.. |
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03-25-2021, 10:07 PM | #426 | |
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(1.) Oil supply chains and gas stations have been building for 100 years - of course they're going to be more of them ... yet that supply chain is massively vulnerable and only works at scale! Any disruption to the supply chain at any point upstream from any locality will permanently kill gas availability to that location. and if it's, say, that gas consumption for your city just fell by 30%, then will trucks keep delivering at scale to that area? Nope. That's not convenience. (2.) Gas stations have built their business model around "quick stop" retail - every retailer from Target to Walmart to Best Buy to Home Depot is salivating over that revenue ... the minute they can take it, they will, and gas stations will disappear faster than you can say "Dude, where's my gas ... and quick stop retail revenue?" So local gasoline availability is vulnerable both at any point upstream in the supply chain, and economically at any given locality. Beyond this we can talk about wireless charging technology that just about every chain retailer is looking at putting into their parking lots RIGHT NOW ... And this is all before battery tech advancement which, despite being nascent, can already charge a Porsche from 5% to 80% in 20 minutes. Bottom line: In 5-6 years, in any major metro/suburbs, gas station trips will be special and be at least 20 minutes out of your way and it'll get worse from there ... The only thing that stops gas stations from going bankrupt is if large chains try to blitzscale every location into an EV charging stop. Go ask the buggy whip business at your local mall.
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03-25-2021, 10:27 PM | #427 |
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03-26-2021, 06:49 AM | #428 | |
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But you'll be happy to know I did sign up for Sky Net, err... Star Link, so I'll be funding the EV takeover one byte at a time for $99 a month. That's if Elon's phone app worked for me, it wasn't very intuitive. I'm just hoping there will be some gas stations left and grease at the local auto parts store to lube the bronze bushing in the clutch pedal arm by the time my new Bronco arrives.
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
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03-26-2021, 07:44 AM | #429 | |
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Admittedly I don’t own one, but will seriously consider one for my next vehicle. After spending a month driving a Model S and never having to experience the “convenience” of having to go to a gas station it may change your mind on what convenience is. Coming out every morning to a full “tank” with over 500kms of range is quite different. Yes, as you say I can just take 5 minutes (although it always seems to take longer than 5 minutes) to stop at a gas station while doing other errands but it still is an extra stop. With an EV I don’t have to waste “5 minutes” of my time doing it at all. Granted it’s not for everyone if you can’t charge at home - but there are more and more super chargers being installed at a mall, big box store etc. near you each and every day. So instead of taking 5 minutes extra to fill up, you plug in while you run your errands at the mall, Best Buy, Home Depot etc and come out 15-20 minutes later topped up.
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03-26-2021, 07:59 AM | #430 | |||
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There are pros and cons to both, and on paper it's hard to decipher how those negatives play out in the real world based on each persons use scenarios. However as person who has lived in the city for past 30 years (8 with a Model S) and now in rural part of the country with both S and Y, there is hardly any downside that should negate owning one as your daily. Obviously I was nervous of using a Tesla in the rural part of the country as the closest charger is 30 mins away. Now that could still be an issue if I forget to plug it in on a trip out or we get a nasty storm that cuts all the power lines. And there is still some range anxiety on road trips even though we are littered with charging stations in Ontario. Having said that We still take the Tesla over even a 2020 Cayenne EHybrid on most trips around the Northeast up to 10hrs distance. Regardless the one thing that is not an inconvenience is plugging it in each night. It becomes 2nd nature like opening your door to step out and more importantly every winter I'm reminded how much of a blessing it is to have this option over heading to the gas station. Everyone who owns a Tesla in the Northeast will admit this one convenience is worth plugging in for. |
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03-26-2021, 08:27 AM | #431 | |
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Also think 5 minutes from original route back to original route is impossible as an average. Sometimes get stuck waiting for someone to move, lights, traffic, etc. If someone told me my great new phone just needs to be charged once a week for 5 minutes at a station on the way to work I wouldn't consider it.
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03-26-2021, 08:39 AM | #432 | |
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This made me laugh, can't imagine anyone but Tesla getting away with their customers. Interested in seeing who in an EV would actually try to go below zero as running to empty with an EV is a big problem. Something to consider when comparing range as Tesla's looks to be unrealistic for actual use.
https://electrek.co/2021/03/25/tesla...-0-mile-range/ Tesla claims EPA range can be achieved on its electric cars by draining battery beyond zero-mile range Quote:
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03-26-2021, 08:53 AM | #433 |
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When it's pouring of rain or snow standing outside fiddling with cables everyday.(I dont garage my cars). Sitting in the car for 45 minutes till it charges on a road trip. No thank you.
Worst of all people preferring a tesla s to a cayenne etc I have travelled in both and the road and tyre noise and quality feel are chalk and cheese.Y can only be worse. |
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03-26-2021, 09:07 AM | #434 | |
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I agree I wouldn't take it on a road trip but we have 2 cars, we do about 2 road trips a year. I rented a truck yesterday because I occasionally need one, sure wouldn't buy one because I want it 4 times a year.
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03-26-2021, 09:29 AM | #435 |
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@David70
Most people rave about waking up with a full charge everyday and not going so I was putting myself in their shoes. My typical scenario is get out of car run home when snow or rain and run in in the morning to the car. EV scenario Get out of car take cable open charger port attach etc get out of the house detach cable attach cable to wall and close port yes maybe under a minute each but not for me. True 36miles/day my commute a 5 minute refill gets me 500 miles ie once every 2 weeks. Wouldn't it be nice to only plug in your mobile once every 2 weeks and get it fully charged under 5 minutes. For me yes even if it is more expensive. |
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03-26-2021, 10:07 AM | #436 | |
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If my two options were to plug my phone in every 4-5 days at my house or stop on the way to work at a charging station and sit there for 5 minutes (most of the time is standing outside next to my car) to make it 2 weeks I would do it at home. Still think the total time to charge my car on average is more than 5 minutes (on route to back on route). Get the 3 Long Range 353 miles range, conservative figure 280 miles and the 36 mile commute x 5 days I am at 180 miles. If heavy rain or whatever I just skip it until tomorrow and charge it after 6 days. Also add that none of our 3 ICE's will get to 500 miles on a tank for normal mixed driving and this is if you run them dry. Z4M range is about 250 on a tank.
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03-26-2021, 11:31 AM | #437 | |
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But not everyone finds refueling at a gas station as troublesome. In my case EVs don't have enough winter range for my needs (170-miles day). For a transportation device, there are many ICE alternatives to a $40K Model 3 that the purchase price differential buys over 250,000 miles of fuel. I'm sorry but that's just the facts. Add in the convenience of a 400-mile recharge in 5 minutes almost anywhere in the US, and the buying preference tells the story. Last edited by Efthreeoh; 03-27-2021 at 09:00 AM.. |
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03-27-2021, 08:54 AM | #438 | |
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*The confrontation with county would be because I built a 3-car carport between the river and the house that is a 30-second walk from the house. I could electrify the carport because the electric utility pole that serves the house and the barn is 5 feet away from the carport. I'd have to get the utility company to add an electric meter to the carport, which requires a permit from the county, but I never got a permit for the carport, so the county might frown upon that...
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
Last edited by Efthreeoh; 03-27-2021 at 09:05 AM.. |
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03-27-2021, 09:34 AM | #439 | ||
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I am one of the few people in the UK who works next to a costco. Premium fuel is good. As I drive away after the 2 weekly food shop I fill up takes me 3 minutes and gives me over 500 miles in my X5 30d's. My wife is so busy at work and so disorganised she doesn't even look at the fuel indicator so EV charging and her will be a disaster. Worst of all when I'm at work and get a call saying my relative who lives 400 miles away is unwell I don't want to say give me a few hours while I charge my car. I want to be able to jump in and drive whenever same of on friday evening kids and mrs say let's go somewhere I want to be able to jump in the car and drive while she makes reservations etc without charging or planning supercharger routes etc. So in summary EVs are more inconvenient for most folk than most EV supporters will ever admit. For some it will be not for me and many like me. |
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03-27-2021, 10:02 AM | #440 | |
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
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