Good time to buy Rivian stock?

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I don't disagree that this is a poor practice but how about the lax CAFE rules on trucks? In what world should a Subaru Outback be classified as a "truck". Until someone addresses the CAFE classification issues with light trucks, US society will continue to buy up poor MPG and heavier polluting trucks and SUVs. We can do better.

Yeah, but then we'd never have had mid-sized trucks with small blocks in them, which are such a great platform.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I don't disagree that this is a poor practice but how about the lax CAFE rules on trucks? In what world should a Subaru Outback be classified as a "truck". Until someone addresses the CAFE classification issues with light trucks, US society will continue to buy up poor MPG and heavier polluting trucks and SUVs. We can do better.

The simple fix here here is to eliminate CAFE, and HUGE portions of the EPA entirely.

Americans want what they want. Our government should not be trying to tell us what we should buy for cars. That's not their job. They are supposed to work for us.

[Chihuahua]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

The simple fix here here is to eliminate CAFE, and HUGE portions of the EPA entirely.

Americans want what they want. Our government should not be trying to tell us what we should buy for cars. That's not their job. They are supposed to work for us.

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Rivian stock is around $13/share and down from it's $140 peak a few years ago. Yes, they are smoking through cash and have been for a while. Their reliability is terrible but so was Teslas when they first started out. Rivian has announced 3 new smaller models and I think the company may be on the right track as these are cheaper, smaller, less powerful models that may better appeal to the masses. I don't plan to own an EV but I do think they are part of the automotive future, though are not the answer. They do have their value just as much as a hybrid or efficient ICE vehicle.

Now with that out of the way, what are investors thoughts? Any glaring red flags beyond what i already noted? I made a killing on my Activision Blizzard stock when MS bought the company and I was thinking about taking around 10% of that profit and buying around 800 shares and see what happens. I'd probably unload it once it gets to $50-60/share. This investment would represent a very tiny part of my portfolio so there's no worry here that I'm putting all my eggs in one basket.

My usual response if someone asks if they should do X I reply no. My thinking is if one has to ask...

You should be able to answer your own question.

I think you did in a way. Kind of a digest of what you wrote is if you can afford to have Rivian stock go to $0 and the loss won't affect you in any meaningful way then buy the stock.

The purchase is a gamble but as long as you ain't riskin' the farm...

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by RockCrusher

My usual response if someone asks if they should do X I reply no. My thinking is if one has to ask...

You should be able to answer your own question.

I think you did in a way. Kind of a digest of what you wrote is if you can afford to have Rivian stock go to $0 and the loss won't affect you in any meaningful way then buy the stock.

The purchase is a gamble but as long as you ain't riskin' the farm...

I get that they are burning through cash, have poor reliability, and EV sales are sliding. I was just curious if there were any other major red flags I may have been missing.

I bought $10,000 in Rivian this morning. If it fails, so be it, but my guess is it will rise significantly in 2-5 years. We'll see how it goes and have fun with it. I set my sale notification at $60/share. If I'm lucky, I'll use that cash to put towards a 718 GTS 4.0

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I get that they are burning through cash, have poor reliability, and EV sales are sliding. I was just curious if there were any other major red flags I may have been missing.

I bought $10,000 in Rivian this morning. If it fails, so be it, but my guess is it will rise significantly in 2-5 years. We'll see how it goes and have fun with it. I set my sale notification at $60/share. If I'm lucky, I'll use that cash to put towards a 718 GTS 4.0

How many red flags do you need?

Still I hope it works out for you.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by Tejas1836

So, you're asking an internet vehicle forum about financial investing. Jeez, what could go wrong?

to the freaking moon bro

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I get that they are burning through cash, have poor reliability, and EV sales are sliding. I was just curious if there were any other major red flags I may have been missing.

The latest red flag would be the pause of Georgia factory plans, with no timetable given to start back up. Rivian needs the volume from that plant to survive.

Also the profit margin improvements promised by end of this year needs to happen.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by M3WC

The latest red flag would be the pause of Georgia factory plans, with no timetable given to start back up. Rivian needs the volume from that plant to survive.

Also the profit margin improvements promised by end of this year needs to happen.

The pause with the GA factory is the right move and though a red flag, is one reason why I choose to take the risk and invest in the stock. They haven't walked away from the project, they've only postponed it, likely for 5 or so years. They need to focus on production of their smaller, cheaper models and have them ready for the 2026 model year. It will be an uphill battle for a number of years. I'm a patient investor.

[murderspice]

Id rather be on Lucid.

[Tejas1836]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

The pause with the GA factory is the right move and though a red flag, is one reason why I choose to take the risk and invest in the stock. They haven't walked away from the project, they've only postponed it, likely for 5 or so years. They need to focus on production of their smaller, cheaper models and have them ready for the 2026 model year. It will be an uphill battle for a number of years. I'm a patient investor.

Dead money. Losing 18%/year on inflation alone

[DanG]

Might as well buy Peloton stock too. Another high risk loser.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

The pause with the GA factory is the right move and though a red flag, is one reason why I choose to take the risk and invest in the stock. They haven't walked away from the project, they've only postponed it, likely for 5 or so years. They need to focus on production of their smaller, cheaper models and have them ready for the 2026 model year. It will be an uphill battle for a number of years. I'm a patient investor.

If it is 5+ years they will not survive without outside investment. The Normal factory can only sustain 150k unit capacity. R1 capacity is currently at 65k, that only leaves 85k capacity for R2 for 5 years. They need to sell R2 by the multiple 100k units per year minimum. Georgia factory was to produce 200k units out of the gate, with 400k capacity soon after. The R2 will not save the company, the Georgia factory will. Scaling/volume is the number one issue for these EV startups.

They lost $40k per R1 in Q4 2023. With profit margin improvements said to be coming for R1 production line by end of 2024. The R2 sure looked as premium as the R1, not much decontenting. The margins will be even tighter at lower price point. Volume is the only answer.

Producing the R2 in Normal just seemed like a decision they were forced into, they tried to spin it as positive.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by murderspice

Id rather be on Lucid.

Saudis need to keep pumping in cash.

[RockCrusher]

In last Saturday's (3/9-3/10) edition of the WSJ article: Rivian Tries To Follow Tesla, But It's Too Late.

Deliveries of the R2 will start in 2026. The smaller R3 will come even later.

Rivian stock bounced on last Thursday's (3/8) but is down 19% since that and down 84% since its wild debut.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by M3WC

If it is 5+ years they will not survive without outside investment. The Normal factory can only sustain 150k unit capacity. R1 capacity is currently at 65k, that only leaves 85k capacity for R2 for 5 years. They need to sell R2 by the multiple 100k units per year minimum. Georgia factory was to produce 200k units out of the gate, with 400k capacity soon after. The R2 will not save the company, the Georgia factory will. Scaling/volume is the number one issue for these EV startups.

They lost $40k per R1 in Q4 2023. With profit margin improvements said to be coming for R1 production line by end of 2024. The R2 sure looked as premium as the R1, not much decontenting. The margins will be even tighter at lower price point. Volume is the only answer.

Producing the R2 in Normal just seemed like a decision they were forced into, they tried to spin it as positive.

You're missing one other big thing. Demand. They might need to sell 200k R2s a year, but reality is, the market probably won't support that. Tesla will dramatically undercut them on price, has its own charging network, and you can have your new Tesla in a couple weeks, vs who knows when with the Rivian.

Rivian is doomed. Lucid is also doomed. The legacy automakers can't hardly sell these EVs, and they know how to build cars. Volume EVs aren't sold to be "nice" cars, they're sold to be cheap to operate, meaning the huge price advantage Tesla has is going to be nearly impossible to overcome. And if R2 is nearly the price of a Model Y, Tesla will just cut the price by another 5-10k lol.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

You're missing one other big thing. Demand. They might need to sell 200k R2s a year, but reality is, the market probably won't support that. Tesla will dramatically undercut them on price, has its own charging network, and you can have your new Tesla in a couple weeks, vs who knows when with the Rivian.

Rivian is doomed. Lucid is also doomed. The legacy automakers can't hardly sell these EVs, and they know how to build cars. Volume EVs aren't sold to be "nice" cars, they're sold to be cheap to operate, meaning the huge price advantage Tesla has is going to be nearly impossible to overcome. And if R2 is nearly the price of a Model Y, Tesla will just cut the price by another 5-10k lol.

Great post!

[M370z]

Rivian won't even be a thing in 3-5 years. Just not sustainable unfortunately.

[Torgus]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Rivian stock is around $13/share and down from it's $140 peak a few years ago. Yes, they are smoking through cash and have been for a while. Their reliability is terrible but so was Teslas when they first started out. Rivian has announced 3 new smaller models and I think the company may be on the right track as these are cheaper, smaller, less powerful models that may better appeal to the masses. I don't plan to own an EV but I do think they are part of the automotive future, though are not the answer. They do have their value just as much as a hybrid or efficient ICE vehicle.

Now with that out of the way, what are investors thoughts? Any glaring red flags beyond what i already noted? I made a killing on my Activision Blizzard stock when MS bought the company and I was thinking about taking around 10% of that profit and buying around 800 shares and see what happens. I'd probably unload it once it gets to $50-60/share. This investment would represent a very tiny part of my portfolio so there's no worry here that I'm putting all my eggs in one basket.

If you like to piss away money just give it to me.

EVs sales are dropping like crazy and no end in sight.

[Car-Addicted]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

It will be an uphill battle for a number of years. I'm a patient investor.

My thinking on this is the profit play for Rivian will be the same as Tesla. Selling earned carbon credits to other companies. If their production reaches significant numbers and their chargers catch on, I would expect someone to come in a buy them. Should that happen you will need a Rivian to pack all your money to the bank. If not your investment just became a good capital loss for your tax return.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Torgus

If you like to piss away money just give it to me.

EVs sales are dropping like crazy and no end in sight.

Again, this investment is strictly for fun and a what-the-hell kind of thing I occasionally do with investments. The $9600 I spent represents a minuscule portion of my portfolio. Yeah, it's an investment gamble.

EV sales are sliding, but I do not see Rivian disappearing. Their Amazon EVs are all over place and have the backing of Amazon. Amazon needs them. EV sales will go exponential once better infrastructure is there and smaller, more efficient, less powerful, and more importantly, cheaper EVs become available. I have no desire to own an EV, but I see their purpose and benefit in certain parts of automotive society and recognize that there will be many of them around in 10+ years. That is inevitable. Also what is inevitable is more efficient ICE and hybrid vehicles as well.

If I lose the investment, so be it, but I think that's very unlikely and that ~5 years from now, it will likely be a $50+/share stock.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by M3WC

If it is 5+ years they will not survive without outside investment. The Normal factory can only sustain 150k unit capacity. R1 capacity is currently at 65k, that only leaves 85k capacity for R2 for 5 years. They need to sell R2 by the multiple 100k units per year minimum. Georgia factory was to produce 200k units out of the gate, with 400k capacity soon after. The R2 will not save the company, the Georgia factory will. Scaling/volume is the number one issue for these EV startups.

They lost $40k per R1 in Q4 2023. With profit margin improvements said to be coming for R1 production line by end of 2024. The R2 sure looked as premium as the R1, not much decontenting. The margins will be even tighter at lower price point. Volume is the only answer.

Producing the R2 in Normal just seemed like a decision they were forced into, they tried to spin it as positive.

They cannot afford to build the GA plant. Construction of that plant would most certainly end them. The Normal plant has a ton of space available to support expansion, if necessary. I agree, volume is the answer.

The R2 is aiming for a $45K entry point and the R3 $37K which are substantially lower than the R1 entry point of $75K.