Where does BMW go from here?

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

It’s not about today’s market, it’s about tomorrow’s market and the reallocation of resources toward new products. Like most every other automaker, BMW is being pushed into the future at an accelerated pace. You’ve probably seen the attached image which shows how many new electrified products BMW is working on for release in the next few years. Many of those products would not have been in the pipeline without disruption from the EV tech/mobility industry and expectations that have arisen due to the visibility cast on the technology.



That’s one component of it, yes.

That's the point. It's not the tech driving the disruption, it is the emissions laws and fuel consumption laws in both Europe and USA that are driving the (disruptive) development of EV. EV/Hybrid has been around for 20 years now and the market share is tiny. When a President mandates 52 MPG CAFE and lower emissions (tailpipe), the only way to be compliant is electric.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

That's the point. It's not the tech driving the disruption, it is the emissions laws and fuel consumption laws in both Europe and USA that are driving the (disruptive) development of EV.

Only in recent years has the technology side evolved to the point that it could be made practical for commercialization - at least enough so to make for a viable business case. Today’s wave of EV startups can exist only because of that evolution and advancement.

If you are building mechanical things for mass market, you want them to be as simple as possible while meeting customer needs. An electric motor and drivetrain with its single-speed transmission and no driveshaft necessary for AWD, not to mention no need for an oil change and other advantages is a big win in that area. So the automotive industry was headed this way at some point, one way or another. Automakers ultimately want that to happen - eventually.

What the car companies don’t want is the higher costs currently associated with manufacturing an EV. However, if costs favored the EV now (and if range anxiety weren’t a challenge still) you can be damn sure BMW and every other player would be pumping them out in the 100s of thousands of units per year.

But costs gets lower and lower as time goes on and the number of EV being built increases. Once economies of scale mature, the script will change and that’s why BMW are being motivated by the push in the back from the little guys now even though in today’s market the cost is still high and the revenue is still small. If they don’t get onboard now then they’ll get left behind.

Legislators can make rules, but they know better than to make rules that are impossible to follow. That’s why the rules don’t dictate zero tailpipe today, or ten, fifteen, twenty years ago. The startups are doing just that (zero tailpipe) though. They are ahead of the regs because they can be - no one is forcing them to build EV only. They are doing it because they built a business model around the tech and the trend.

[SCOTT26]

"Their sport sedans sales have dropped off precipitously. BMW used to just make sport sedans; the best in the world IMO."

Yes in the American market I agree that Sports sedans have dropped off precipitously however Americans are buying more BMW X models. That is the way the market has evolved. They would rather have the X3 than a 3er.

It is a different story elsewhere in some markets but most customer preferences are aligned. That is why this year alone four all new X models. The X2,X4 all new X5 and the flagship X7.

But the market will also see the conceptual stages to introduce full EV BMWi models beginning with the iX3 Concept alongside the PHEV of the X3iPerformance. It's the beginning of the new era of BMW to offer three individual lines or five when we count the M models.

X5/X5iPerformance/iX5/X5MPerformance/X5M.
Then we have the introduction of BMWiNEXT which will be unveiled shortly as a Concept Car It will spearhead the future strategies of BMW.

BMW’s powertrain masterplan

Munich’s strategy for electric, hybrid and internal combustion domination


TWIN turbos make BMWs fast today, but the company has a plan that will eventually put triple-motor EVs at the very top of its performance car hierarchy.

Sometime by the middle of the next decade, the Munich brand's most desirable car is likely to be an EV that’s quicker than today’s BMW M5, with a greater driving range than the current Tesla Model S, and which looks like the i Vision Dynamics concept (below) revealed in Frankfurt last year.

“The trend towards e-mobility is irreversible"

BMW-powertrain-iVision-Dynamic-concept.

The problem for BMW is that the world isn’t moving towards an electric-powered driving future at a uniform pace. “Governments have been inconsistent,”

Some have encouraged their citizens to buy EVs, others have moved to make both plain and plug-in hybrids more attractive, and some have done little or nothing. Sales vary accordingly…

For a company like BMW Group, which sells its products all over the world, this makes its business more complex than ever before. “Global markets will continue to demand very different types of drivetrains for a long time to come,” Robertson observed. But BMW has a plan to meet the challenge.

The company spelled it out in detail. Its engineers are developing two all-new vehicle architectures, which will provide the foundations for everything the BMW Group produces. Their names are German acronyms, FAAR and CLAR.

The first car based on one of the new architectures is scheduled for launch in 2021. While BMW execs referred to it during the briefings in Munich as the i Next, it’s likely to be the production version of the i Vision Dynamics concept which will be badged i4.

FAAR is for smaller front-drive and all-wheel-drive models, including MINI.
CLAR is for larger rear-drive and all-wheel-drive vehicles, so it will be the basis of future BMW and possibly also Rolls-Royce models.

BMW-powertrain-Mini-electric-concept.

What makes them unusual, perhaps unique, is that they’re being designed to be able to accept conventional internal combustion, plug-in hybrid and pure EV drivetrains. This doesn’t mean every BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce will be produced in all three formats. But the strategy will give BMW Group the ability to profitably manufacture whatever global markets are demanding.

There’s not a lot of difference between the internal combustion engine and plug-in hybrid versions, but the EV uses a completely different centre section to house its underfloor batteries. BMW is developing two sizes of battery cell, one around 80mm thick for use in cars, another around 140mm thick for SUVs and crossovers?

The need to accommodate underfloor batteries will make future BMWs taller, the engineers admitted. The plan is to use identical exterior pressings for all drivetrain versions, so internal combustion and plug-in hybrids will share sheetmetal with the EVs. But the engineers insisted their colleagues in design would be able to find ways to minimise the visual impact.

BMW execs and engineers sketched a remarkably detailed outline of their FAAR and CLAR EV strategy. The company plans to produce basic and premium versions of its battery packs, the latter with superior energy density to justify the greater cost.

The aim is to turn out packs with 120kWh (more than market leader Tesla offers today), 90kWh and 60kWh energy storage capacities. Driving ranges of up to 450km for the smallest and 700km for the largest packs are promised.

BMW manufactures its own electric motors. It has developed a more compact electric propulsion unit, which packages motor, reduction gearbox and control electronics in the same casing, for its next-gen EVs. Power outputs for mainstream small, medium, large and extra-large EVs of 100kW, 190kW, 250kW and 300kW-plus are planned.

Engineers in Munich confirmed that the larger CLAR architecture is being designed to enable top models to have dual rear motors, for the purpose of torque vectoring, plus a front motor. And this adds up to one damned fast EV. Acceleration to 100km/h in around 3.0 seconds is possible with this set-up.

“If the market wants it, we are able to deliver that with this modular kit,” promised a BMW engineer.

BMW-powertrain-engine-block.

IN-HOUSE BUZZ
BMW manufactures its own electric motors, while most other car makers buy from outside suppliers. Engineers insist that its synchronous, current-excited motor makes BMW’s electric motors stand out from the rest.

“It delivers very high power also at high speeds, for example,” said one engineer.

There’s also plenty of potential to squeeze more power out of BMW’s motors without increasing size. And synchronous motors don’t need the expensive rare earths used in permanent-magnet motors .


The BMWi models will be positioned to run parallel against the core models.
It's all about choice in order to let the customer choose their preference or adapt to something completely different. The whole iNext strategy provides further proof we are seeing a seismic change especially within customer demographics.
BMW sold their expected target of 100,000 Electrified units for 2017, several markets count the 2er,3er,5er,7er and X5 iPerformance models as the best selling models in their actual series. That is significant especially when Diesel ruled those particular series.

[MalibuBimmer]

Originally Posted by tuco44

I agree with you. LIke you, bought my first over 40 years ago (1971), and my F30 340i XDrive is my 19th. I do not think BMW has lost its way, but the times and driving conditions have changed over the years; and BMW has had to adapt to such changes. The "hard-edged" enthusiast is a dying breed.

We have a similar history. My late Father (passed away at the end of January at 100), bought a 2800CS in 1969. I liked it, bought a Bavaria with 5000 miles on it in 1971 and a 3.0CS a year later. I've had all the BMWs listed below (17 plus my M4) as well as 9 Mercedes-Benzes, lots of trucks and lots of American cars.

I came back to BMW in 2006 with a 650i convertible. Which was a lemon and led to my 2007 M6 convertible. I had a lot of good BMWs over the next decade but the i8 eventually bored the sh*t out of me and I wanted something exciting, good looking and well made. So I got rid of the i8 and got an AMG GT.

BMWs today are boring. The interiors only a slight improvement over Tesla.

I suspect that my next car will be autonomous (I'm becoming a geezer), so maybe BMW will win me back.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Only in recent years has the technology side evolved to the point that it could be made practical for commercialization - at least enough so to make for a viable business case. Today’s wave of EV startups can exist only because of that evolution and advancement.

If you are building mechanical things for mass market, you want them to be as simple as possible while meeting customer needs. An electric motor and drivetrain with its single-speed transmission and no driveshaft necessary for AWD, not to mention no need for an oil change and other advantages is a big win in that area. So the automotive industry was headed this way at some point, one way or another. Automakers ultimately want that to happen - eventually.

What the car companies don’t want is the higher costs currently associated with manufacturing an EV. However, if costs favored the EV now (and if range anxiety weren’t a challenge still) you can be damn sure BMW and every other player would be pumping them out in the 100s of thousands of units per year.

But costs gets lower and lower as time goes on and the number of EV being built increases. Once economies of scale mature, the script will change and that’s why BMW are being motivated by the push in the back from the little guys now even though in today’s market the cost is still high and the revenue is still small. If they don’t get onboard now then they’ll get left behind.

Legislators can make rules, but they know better than to make rules that are impossible to follow. That’s why the rules don’t dictate zero tailpipe today, or ten, fifteen, twenty years ago. The startups are doing just that (zero tailpipe) though. They are ahead of the regs because they can be - no one is forcing them to build EV only. They are doing it because they built a business model around the tech and the trend.

You should review the CARB rules and the EV1 story. Everyone, including Michael Moore chastised GM for killing off the EV1; however, here was no market for it outside of SoCal. There certainly wasn't any market for the EV1 in Nebraska. The mass market automakers who sell cars at the "average" market price develop and sell automobiles to the widest possible market base, which is why the Chevrolet Bolt comes as a CUV rather than a sports sedan, and why the Nissan Leaf comes as an econobox. EV development of cars that cost $35,000 and get 200-plus miles on a charge has begun in earnest because the US Tax payer knocks $7,500 off the price if the EV has a 16kW or larger battery. A 200-plus mile EV at $35,000 makes the cost benefit ratio comparable to ICE; that's why both GM and Tesla with the Model 3 are chasing that target. Tesla also fiscally benefits from selling carbon tax credits; legislation introduced by Al Gore, who by the way wanted to tax gasoline in the US so it was the equivalent cost of fuel in Europe, AND who stated he wanted to kill off the internal combustion engine. I'm sorry, but you are placing a false narrative on the development of EV; it was, is, and has been purely driven by political fashion in an effort to save the planet.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I'm sorry, but you are placing a false narrative on the development of EV; it was, is, and has been purely driven by political fashion in an effort to save the planet.

a) I respectfully disagree with the above.
b) The argument was there was disruption and there absolutely is disruption. Disruption is disruption no matter your views on the precise genesis of it.
c) The political forum is at the link below if you'd like to discuss the politics of EV. We'll now get back on topic - BMW's health and future.

http://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=56

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

a) I respectfully disagree with the above.
b) The argument was there was disruption and there absolutely is disruption. Disruption is disruption no matter your views on the precise genesis of it.
c) The political forum is at the link below if you'd like to discuss the politics of EV. We'll now get back on topic - BMW's health and future.

http://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=56

Okay, BMW eventually goes out of business when EV combines with level 5 autonomy. When that day comes no manufacturer has any profit motive to differentiate itself from any other manufacturer. If the human is not driving the machine there is no point of making it the ultimate. The autonomous machine doesn't care how it drives. Trips will be preprogrammed with speed and direction preestablished, and travel will require no performance advantage between manufacturers models. Further, if such autonomy comes to fruition and cars are owned by transportation service providers there will be no need to have any vehicle differentiation as there will be no need for pestiege of ownership.

At this point how BMW gets to putting itself out of business is no interest to me personally as I'm not interested in any current models and the sales price of EV or hybrid does not reduce the price of their future offerings. Every manufacturer sells a turbo 4 with a 8 speed automatic. BMW used to be different, which was worth spending the extra money on.

[nyalpine90]

my first car was 2000 civic vp in the summer of 2000, the basic model with roll up windows..4yrs later i purchased 04 X3 and few other bmws without looking at their competitors. fast forward things have changed now where my resale of my x4 or trade in value is poor. Im starting to look at the other brands which I didnt think it would happen.

[Germanauto]

BMW isn't what it used to be as it has gotten a tad complacent since 2009 (E89 and F10 were the beginning of the numb EPS era) and the competition has made strides. The ///M cars are still good overall but they drive the same as their AMG and RS competitors. Fast but numb and isolated. They don't have the "feel" they used to.

But OP is exaggerating a bit, BMWs still hold their own in their respective segments. Aside from the new 7-series they haven't completely shat the bed on any recent models. Their SUVs are pretty much all either the first or second best options in each class, and the new 5-series is also extremely good.

The F30 was a disappointment though, hopefully the next 3-series becomes the clear segment leader as the E90, E46, etc. were.

[tuco44]

Not all F30s are disappointments, the 340i, equipped properly, is a darn fine car. A little too much generalization.

[Germanauto]

Originally Posted by tuco44

Not all F30s are disappointments, the 340i, equipped properly, is a darn fine car. A little too much generalization.

But it's not head and shoulders the best in class like it used to be.

My pops had a 430 loaner and was actually pleased with how it drove compared to other F3X models he'd driven. It seems like they have made some positive changes after a few years of complaints.

[louielouie]

M140i to the States please.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by louielouie

M140i to the States please.

M140i heading to the grave in about 16 months (or less).

[SCOTT26]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

M140i heading to the grave in about 16 months (or less).

Yes. But a replacement will come. The new car is fantastic. Significant leaps in quality and passenger space. It maybe born out of the customers ignorance to identify if FWD or RWD?
But it provides a definitive competitor to this extremely competitive segment.

Official development pictures are due soon to let us know of its existence.
But the car will premiere just under a year from now in Geneva, March 2019.

[Mr Carrots]

Originally Posted by SCOTT26

Yes. But a replacement will come. The new car is fantastic. Significant leaps in quality and passenger space. It maybe born out of the customers ignorance to identify if FWD or RWD?
But it provides a definitive competitor to this extremely competitive segment.

Official development pictures are due soon to let us know of its existence.
But the car will premiere just under a year from now in Geneva, March 2019.

If FWD it's another sign of BMW losing their way to try to get the Audi market of drivers who don't even know how many cylinders their car has.

It's a real tragedy that BMW is pushing FWD junk

[Bluesummer]

Make a bunch of cheap cars, use that money make a few sports car, then use that money, build a bad ass sports car. Finally, use all those profit, develop a halo car.

wait, I'm just talking about Mercedes....

[yco]

the first thing they need to do is lowering the prices and adding more options as standard.. you cant sell a premium car with analog seats anymore in 2018.. those times are past.. and a regular customer such things really makes difference..