Still want an EV? (NO POLITICS)

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

How much will it cost to charge your EV when the government loses Billions in gas tax and must spend trillions to upgrade the grid from more nuclear power plants, transmission lines and charging stations? There will be a cost transference. EV's may be very cheap to run now but the costs will go up as the uptake goes up. Should be interesting to see if they are cheaper or more expensive 20 years from now.

I didn't really discuss cost, but yes, infrastructure will need to be upgraded and additions built to accomodate charging of EVs. That cost will be passed off to the consumer, as expected. They're not insurmountable problems. If petroleum from Azerbaijan can eventually end up in your gas tank, power infrastructure problems can certainly be solved.

I don't have an EV so I don't have first-hand experience, but how much does it cost to charge it now? $10 for 200 miles of range? Let's assume that. $20 for 400 miles of range. Currently, gas is $5.40 per gallon and I get about 24 mpg combined, which is about $80 per 400 miles. So even if electric costs doubled, it's cheaper.

Gas prices are only going to get higher as OPEC isn't planning on being charitable so as electricity costs go up, so will gas prices. It's already $10 a gallon in some countries and we're headed that way in NA. $15-$20 per gallon is the future.

It's also a tricky comparison, but electricity will remain cheaper until we're able to reach a level of gas consumption that would make us far less reliant on fuel from OPEC.

Plenty of opportunity for energy companies to make money. Higher cost for charging EVs (e.g. road taxes included) compared to other residential power, higher price to charge during peak hours, charging restrictions during peak demand (e.g. energy saving meters for AC).

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Even if we charged the tesla for free with rainbow and unicorn energy, a Corolla is only using ~$2047 a year in fuel

Data for this figure: 2022 corolla rated MPG = 31/40 city/highway, 33 combined. Average it to 33 MPG at 15,000 miles a year is 455 gallons. Even at current record gas prices of $4.50, it's $2027 in annual fuel cost. If gas went back to $2.50 we ar elooking at $1127

At $2000 a year in fuel cost, it takes 15 years and 210,000 miles to save that $30K price delta. And this assumes electricity is free. Mine isn't.

Using a corolla hybrid:

24K purchase
53 MPG
15,000 miles per year
283 gallons per year
@$4.50 = $1273 per year
@$2.50 = $707 Per year

vs:, $50K EV that runs on free electricity:
@$4.50 = $1273 = 20 years and 295,000 miles
@$2.50 = $707 = 35 years and 525,000 miles

I looked up the average cost to drive a model 3, ~$0.03 per mile, so $450 per year at 15,000 miles. Using that figure, breakeven is at 97 years and 1.5 million miles compared to $2.50 gas in a Corolla hybrid.



Hybrids aren't that bad to drive, I put 180K on one from 2009 to 2018, and it only cost $4k more on the purchase price over the regular base engine. It has more horse power and lots more torque too.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

Yes, it is particularly relevant. Total environmental and economic impact.... When you start dealing with facts, reality and common sense the argument for EVs breaks down quickly. Step away from the Kool Aid for a second. And if your tax dollars paid for "free" gas stations to be built for every "free" recharging site the argument breaks down further. This isn't that hard....

You have some of those? I haven't seen any from you yet.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by ZL9M2

Yes, it is particularly relevant. Total environmental and economic impact.... When you start dealing with facts, reality and common sense the argument for EVs breaks down quickly. Step away from the Kool Aid for a second. And if your tax dollars paid for "free" gas stations to be built for every "free" recharging site the argument breaks down further. This isn't that hard....

Full disclosure, I work in the power industry, we generate, transport, and distribute in over a dozen states. It's an incredibly expensive process and not without environmental impact. It's also incredibly slow to change. It can take over 10 years to bring a transmission path online.

The grid isn't ready for what people want it to do. It could probably adapt if we were wiling to forego air-conditioning though, so there are some options...

We are still waiting for night time solar to be invented. Until then, we aren't ready.

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Even at current record gas prices of $4.50, it's $2027 in annual fuel cost. If gas went back to $2.50 we ar elooking at $1127

If we went back to $0.01 per gallon, it would only be $4.45 for a year! But at the more likely (than $2.50) $10 per gallon, it's 4500 per year. Still, a long time to meet the cost difference. Then again, a Model 3 isn't your only option. Using the Nissan Leaf as an example, you're already ahead with it on cost, even with the model with a bigger battery.

"Current record gas prices" is only of you look at the last 10 years. June 2008 gas prices were a bit over $5.30 per gallon, adjusted for inflation.

10 years ago, EVs were far more expensive to operate and we'll never see more than a few thousand examples on the road. 10 years from now, it'll be cheaper than today.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Ximian

If we went back to $0.01 per gallon, it would only be $4.45 for a year! But at the more likely (than $2.50) $10 per gallon, it's 4500 per year. Still, a long time to meet the cost difference. Then again, a Model 3 isn't your only option. Using the Nissan Leaf as an example, you're already ahead with it on cost, even with the model with a bigger battery.

"Current record gas prices" is only of you look at the last 10 years. June 2008 gas prices were a bit over $5.30 per gallon, adjusted for inflation.

10 years ago, EVs were far more expensive to operate and we'll never see more than a few thousand examples on the road. 10 years from now, it'll be cheaper than today.

Electricity is going to cost more too. That was already mentioned, but I'll confirm as an insider that it's definitely true.

We have run out of rivers to dam (and are actively removing some Dam's already), no one wants Nuclear, and the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Where will we get all these new watts from?

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Electricity is going to cost more too. That was already mentioned, but I'll confirm as an insider that it's definitely true.

We have run out of rivers to dam (and are actively removing some Dam's already), no one wants Nuclear, and the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Where will we get all these new watts from?

Plenty of places left to add wind turbines and solar. The overlap of times when there isn't sun shining and wind blowing isn't as significant as you're implying. Plus, having tens of thousands of batteries in each city connected to the local grid in the future could certainly help reduce the need for blackouts.

It's not like we're at the limits of capacity for different sources of electricity. I'm sure you're familiar with - https://www.eia.gov/electricity/mont...?t=epmt_6_07_a

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Ximian

Plenty of places left to add wind turbines and solar. The overlap of times when there isn't sun shining and wind blowing isn't as significant as you're implying. Plus, having tens of thousands of batteries in each city connected to the local grid in the future could certainly help reduce the need for blackouts.

It's not like we're at the limits of capacity for different sources of electricity. I'm sure you're familiar with - https://www.eia.gov/electricity/mont...?t=epmt_6_07_a

You sure about that? This is the system load in California yesterday. And it looks worse than this in Winter. (tip, imported energy in this grapy isn't very green either).

https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

Scroll down to supply trend and set the date to yesterday.

Then set the date to 6 months ago and you can see what it's like in winter.

You do realize the sun isn't always out, right?

We aren't at the limits everywhere, but we are in many places, and we are only adding "unstable" supply to fill in the gaps. Imagine taking a job that paid less, and your spouse got a new job that only paid on sunny days. You might clear the same income per year, but it wont be stable. You can save your money, but you can't efficiently save watts at this scale. It's also not economical to send California sun watts to North Dakota on a windless North Dakota day, nor north Dakota wind watts to California on a cloudy California day.

The normal reply I hear is "don't worry, they will figure it out". I'm one of those "they's", and I'm saying "good luck with that..."

Get ready for brownouts and rolling blackouts.

[Ximian]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

You sure about that? This is the system load in California yesterday. And it looks worse than this in Winter. (tip, imported energy in this grapy isn't very green either).

https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

Scroll down to supply trend and set the date to yesterday.

Then set the date to 6 months ago and you can see what it's like in winter.

You do realize the sun isn't always out, right?

We aren't at the limits everywhere, but we are in many places, and we are only adding "unstable" supply to fill in the gaps. Imagine taking a job that paid less, and your spouse got a new job that only paid on sunny days. You might clear the same income per year, but it wont be stable. You can save your money, but you can't efficiently save watts at this scale. It's also not economical to send California sun watts to North Dakota on a windless North Dakota day, nor north Dakota wind watts to California on a cloudy California day.

The normal reply I hear is "don't worry, they will figure it out". I'm one of those "they's", and I'm saying "good luck with that..."

Get ready for brownouts and rolling blackouts.

I see now. Your argument seems to be that charging many EVs with power supplied only from renewable sources certainly isn't going to match the demand. Of course, anyone can agree to that for the foreseeable future.

Adopting a new way of doing things doesn't have to be perfect in every aspect before it's acceptable. I'm not caught up in the false marketing of EV's being "green" so we can certainly continue to power EVs with coal or natural gas to meet the gap. It's awful for the environment, but the alternative is awful for the environment as well. Not a big deal.

The long term goal is significantly reducing oil imports and gaining energy independence so we're not reliant on a bunch of lunatics to live life normally. The greenhouse gas emission reductions are certainly an added bonus.

Car companies are going electric, utility companies are upgrading and adding renewable capacity. Utility companies will continue to want to make money so they'll provide that energy, one way or another. Similar thing happened when air condition systems started becoming popular.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Ximian

I see now. Your argument seems to be that charging many EVs with power supplied only from renewable sources certainly isn't going to match the demand. Of course, anyone can agree to that for the foreseeable future.

Adopting a new way of doing things doesn't have to be perfect in every aspect before it's acceptable. I'm not caught up in the false marketing of EV's being "green" so we can certainly continue to power EVs with coal or natural gas to meet the gap. It's awful for the environment, but the alternative is awful for the environment as well. Not a big deal.

The long term goal is significantly reducing oil imports and gaining energy independence so we're not reliant on a bunch of lunatics to live life normally. The greenhouse gas emission reductions are certainly an added bonus.

Car companies are going electric, utility companies are upgrading and adding renewable capacity. Utility companies will continue to want to make money so they'll provide that energy, one way or another. Similar thing happened when air condition systems started becoming popular.

Most utilities aren't upgrading, they are simply trying to keep up. Just like how we don't call replacing bald tires on our car an upgrade. Most power providers are regulated monopolies, they can't "upgrade" because their return on investment is capped, they just try to return enough margin to remain solvent and ready for bad years, and to stay afloat. Anything beyond that requires rate increases which have to pass through the PUC, and then cost rate payers more. If you power billing rate hasn't gone up, it's because they aren't "upgrading". If you want an upgrade, you'll have to pay for it.

I don't want to destroy our grid along the way, or fool ourselves about how green we are on the way to setting up something better (and I do 100% want that "better).

A large majority (90% in many places) of EV's charge between midnight and 6 AM when power is cheaper. That's almost all coal and natural gas energy at that time of day, with a little hydro mixed in (which with droughts is also no longer sustainable).

Utilities are adding capacity, but it's not going where people think it does, and it's not a stable supply. They are also removing capacity elsewhere (coal retirement) that is actually stable.

Driving an EV powered by coal and natural gas has a per-mile-CO2 production similar to driving a prius, but a prius doesn't load the grid, and those cars are cheap and reliable already. Half the price of an average EV too.

I'm concerned we are putting the cart before the horse on some of this stuff. Forcing it won't make it work better.

[StradaRedlands]

Good conversation ^^^^

[OkieSnuffBox]

Night time solar is the heliostats that retain heat and keep boilers going driving turbines at night or when the sun isn't shining.

Although it's still not perfect.

[neilum]

Not smelling, maintaining or using an outdated inefficient ICE engine everyday is reason enough to switch. The fact that EV's can be greener in most situations is icing on the cake. Yes anyone can make a hypothetical argument with a focused scenario where they aren't greener but it's totally missing the point.

The narrative that everything isn't perfect so let's not bother is becoming tiresome to hear.

[P1]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

Why own anything then? Just rent 100% of the time.

Most accidents happen close to home or places we always go...

I always rent when I go on a long road trip. Pop into the local Avis, pick the 2022 Suburban and don't worry about a damn thing. It's beautiful.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by neilum

Yes anyone can make a hypothetical argument with a focused scenario where they aren't greener but it's totally missing the point.

The narrative that everything isn't perfect so let's not bother is becoming tiresome to hear.

What is the point?

Charging an EV with Carbon based electricity, good or bad for the environment?

I'd say it's better than nothing, but so are hybrids and/or public transit.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

What is the point?

Charging an EV with Carbon based electricity, good or bad for the environment?

I'd say it's better than nothing, but so are hybrids and/or public transit.

Continued buy in to a technology ensures the technology gets better. More vehicles come out, more competition to make a better car. The demand necessitates improvement.

But there are plenty of other benefits. Fast, fun, included tech, low maintenance, no trips to the gas station, full charge every day, quiet, etc.

We are all driving different cars for different reasons. No one vehicle is a one size fits all, or we'd all be driving the same thing.

You may not see the point. That doesn't mean there isn't one.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by ga9213

Continued buy in to a technology ensures the technology gets better. More vehicles come out, more competition to make a better car. The demand necessitates improvement.

But there are plenty of other benefits. Fast, fun, included tech, low maintenance, no trips to the gas station, full charge every day, quiet, etc.

We are all driving different cars for different reasons. No one vehicle is a one size fits all, or we'd all be driving the same thing.

You may not see the point. That doesn't mean there isn't one.

Increasing a demand for a resource that isn't able to support is neither wise, nor progress. Just because you want it doesn't make it a good idea.

We will get there, lets just be smart about it.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Increasing a demand for a resource that isn't able to support is neither wise, nor progress. Just because you want it doesn't make it a good idea.

We will get there, lets just be smart about it.

That's just capitalism.

The people want it. Time to figure it out.

You guys do support capitalism, don't you?

[G30M]

guys it's not about the environment. the gas prices itself is a turn off to buy ICEs right now. where i live diesels are now more expensive than gas - who would have thought.

but the charging stations cost as much as petrol however, so you do need to charge at home to save money.

that's not counting the cost of longer term maintenance.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by ga9213

That's just capitalism.

You guys do support capitalism, don't you?

I do, and I support a stable power grid. If I have to choose between EV's and power, I choose power.

People also want Heroin and Meth, and a universal basic income. It's not always good for business to give the people what they want.

[ga9213]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

I do, and I support a stable power grid. If I have to choose between EV's and power, I choose power.

People also want Heroin and Meth, and a universal basic income. It's not always good for business to give the people what they want.

Welp, that's your choice and you're free to make it!

[Murf the Surf]

Interesting article on the ownership costs of EV's vs Hybrid and ICE. Done over 3 years and it seems that there really isn't any savings for the EV, in most cases it was more expensive. Gas prices were lower for the testing as it was done over 3 years, but once government has to spend trillions to upgrade the grid and gas tax is lost as ICE diminishes the cost for EV will likely go up....way up.
https://driving.ca/features/shopping...fers-surprises