Stock market tips and experiences

[chassis]

Originally Posted by ASAP

The way I read the economy right now is that there is almost 2 different splits in the overall macro view-

The real economy - which is basically on life support.

Unemployment numbers right now are so fake that if you believe them you need to go see someone. They've been revised every month and tons of layoffs have happened across all industries. Inflation is still keeping on just at a lowered rate however we still have cumulative inflation of about 30% over the past 4 years. Wage growth in sectors outside of low end service jobs is non existent right now... if you lose your job, you will get one that pays a fraction.


The wealthy economy - which is consistently just being pumped by hopes and dreams as well as the money that hasn't been fully siphoned out right now.

This the stock market / 401k economy... some corporations are still posting solid results and others are just floating on some insane valuations that don't match earnings nor current rates yet we are seeing record SPY numbers. The layoffs are masking some of this as well as prior year's price increases for many corpos.

I see all of this going 2 ways-

The fed at this point I believe has little to no idea of what's really going on... or if they do, they've certainly adjusted any real mandate that they would serve.

So we are either going to get some insane recession once this election happens and everything will finally self correct

OR

We keep humming along the way we have been thru various actions by the govt / fed - this is the part that cannot be predicted because we have no idea of the decisions that will be made. If more banks, commercial RE fail and poor earnings continue to show up, will the fed rescue the day? My guess is yes as again they've kind of revised what is acceptable inflation / capitalist cycles at this point.

How do you form your opinion about the economy's performance?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chassis

How do you form your opinion about the economy's performance?

not from reading cnbc or cnn is a solid start... not looking at officially reported unemployment nor cpi numbers

[chassis]

Originally Posted by ASAP

not from reading cnbc or cnn is a solid start... not looking at officially reported unemployment nor cpi numbers

Good choice. What sources do you prefer?

[bagekko]

Instead of looking at the stories talking about how good or bad things are, need to focus on the pieces and personal observations.

Every week companies announcing layoffs, unofficially companies using HR policies to layoff people without calling it a layoff. From my circle practically everyone's company laid off people in 2023.

Companies keep revising budgets for revenue shortfalls. Yet some making crazy profits due to cost cutting measures. Profits being retained to boost stock.

Retailers have been massively discounting since the fall well before Xmas, don't think the Q4 holiday sales numbers are going to be very good. Observed even during Xmas and now, store traffic is kinda light.

Auto & home sales are not doing very good, except from those with lots of extra cash. Auto dealers have tons of inventory sitting on the lot not moving.

Prices are still rising and shrinkflation is still happening with quality declining.

Check local for sale ads, people still dumping luxury or unnecessary items cause they need money, a ton of retail theft still and selling stolen goods, pawn shops are busting at an excess of inventory, lots of desperate people looking to do anything for a buck.

The only good news is gas prices, but that's artificially being pushed down to try and ease the overall pain.

Originally Posted by chassis

Good choice. What sources do you prefer?

[dmatre]

Originally Posted by bagekko

The only good news is gas prices, but that's artificially being pushed down to try and ease the overall pain.

Pushed down by who? You think petroleum companies are feeling sorry for drivers of big SUVs & pickups?

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Instead of looking at the stories talking about how good or bad things are, need to focus on the pieces and personal observations.

Every week companies announcing layoffs, unofficially companies using HR policies to layoff people without calling it a layoff. From my circle practically everyone's company laid off people in 2023.

Companies keep revising budgets for revenue shortfalls. Yet some making crazy profits due to cost cutting measures. Profits being retained to boost stock.

Retailers have been massively discounting since the fall well before Xmas, don't think the Q4 holiday sales numbers are going to be very good. Observed even during Xmas and now, store traffic is kinda light.

Auto & home sales are not doing very good, except from those with lots of extra cash. Auto dealers have tons of inventory sitting on the lot not moving.

Prices are still rising and shrinkflation is still happening with quality declining.

Check local for sale ads, people still dumping luxury or unnecessary items cause they need money, a ton of retail theft still and selling stolen goods, pawn shops are busting at an excess of inventory, lots of desperate people looking to do anything for a buck.

The only good news is gas prices, but that's artificially being pushed down to try and ease the overall pain.

Thanks for the color. What is the best period you have experienced, economically?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Instead of looking at the stories talking about how good or bad things are, need to focus on the pieces and personal observations.

Every week companies announcing layoffs, unofficially companies using HR policies to layoff people without calling it a layoff. From my circle practically everyone's company laid off people in 2023.

Companies keep revising budgets for revenue shortfalls. Yet some making crazy profits due to cost cutting measures. Profits being retained to boost stock.

Retailers have been massively discounting since the fall well before Xmas, don't think the Q4 holiday sales numbers are going to be very good. Observed even during Xmas and now, store traffic is kinda light.

Auto & home sales are not doing very good, except from those with lots of extra cash. Auto dealers have tons of inventory sitting on the lot not moving.

Prices are still rising and shrinkflation is still happening with quality declining.

Check local for sale ads, people still dumping luxury or unnecessary items cause they need money, a ton of retail theft still and selling stolen goods, pawn shops are busting at an excess of inventory, lots of desperate people looking to do anything for a buck.

The only good news is gas prices, but that's artificially being pushed down to try and ease the overall pain.

Correct... I didn't have a chance to answer but this is what it comes down to... anecdotes from everyone. If you are hearing about layoffs all around you, linkedin gets 1000 application for a role, people are having a hard time affording food... it just becomes obvious that there is a disconnect with reality.

It didn't have to be this bad... all it necessitated was slowing down some of the greed during Covid as well as the unnecessary printing of money and raising interest rates early. We would have never seen the growth we did but we also would have never had a wild peak like we did which is always followed by a fast downturn which we are now in. No one in this country has the balls to truly resolve the economic issues no matter the party. When the real numbers come out after the election, I think people will be singing a different tune everywhere.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks for the color. What is the best period you have experienced, economically?

For me it was during the few years of Trump PRE COVID... however, the decisions made during this time frame are why we are in serious pain now. It's better to have a more moderate economy for a longer period of time than these insane highs and lows we have. Trump named Powell the fed chairman, threatened him to keep rates low and cut taxes... of course this was going to be bring Economic growth but then Covid hit and they continued to pour fuel on the fire with money printing and supressing rates further. Then Biden got elected and did the exact same thing all over and just continues to pour more fuel on the fire with insane spending, forgiving debt and passing nonsense like the inflation reduction act which in fact raised inflation further lol...

Again, this can ONLY go 2 ways... a serious economic crash that resets everything... this will cause mass unemployment (not sure which politician has the balls for this) OR conversely we continue to trek on a fake economy that will border around stagflation (this really doesn't benefit anyone) except corporations that can cut costs. In this scenario, employment / wages will be limited for years unless they cut rates soon which could also cause inflation to immediately bounce back, hence stagflation again.

[bagekko]

That's a tricky question; AGI for the family now is much higher than any other period because of SO, but worked for a investment firm during the .com boom and things back then were much more affordable, my total income peaked when the RE bust and made a ton of $ on the way back up plus was DINK so...

I would take income adjusted backwards from today and prefer to live from 2000-10 times right now.

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks for the color. What is the best period you have experienced, economically?

[bagekko]

OPEC, Russia, other govts

Originally Posted by dmatre

Pushed down by who? You think petroleum companies are feeling sorry for drivers of big SUVs & pickups?

One other thing debt keeps skyrocketing and auto, home, CC defaults are rising.

I go to a pawn shop at least once a month because they do my FFL transfers. If you ever want to know a good gauge of the economy visit a busy pawn shop. Mine has been doing some advertised sales on inventory cause they are overflowing and yet not much is moving.

[Donatello.]

Seems that no matter what, my IRAs don't grow much at all. I'll be working till I'm dead.

[bagekko]

Almost 2 yrs ago I converted my traditional IRA to a brokerage IRA, I was shocked and happy when the traditional MF funds in it returned to even about 3 months ago, but about 40% of it is in stocks and ETFs which is more volatile but better off.

You can always do the same and try to do better than the MF companies.

Originally Posted by Donatello.

Seems that no matter what, my IRAs don't grow much at all. I'll be working till I'm dead.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

Seems that no matter what, my IRAs don't grow much at all. I'll be working till I'm dead.

What are you invested in, stock and fund wise? Do they have high expense ratios. That may be some of it.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

That's a tricky question; AGI for the family now is much higher than any other period because of SO, but worked for a investment firm during the .com boom and things back then were much more affordable, my total income peaked when the RE bust and made a ton of $ on the way back up plus was DINK so...

I would take income adjusted backwards from today and prefer to live from 2000-10 times right now.

Using 2005 as a reference point:

- CPI all items has increased at a 2.5% CAGR from Jan-2005 until now
- YOY CPI inflation was around 3% in 2005
- Case-Shiller HPI has grown at a CAGR of 3.5% nationally, and 2.8% for MA since 2005
- S&P500 total return from 2005 until now is 7%, better than inflation
- Unemployment had a 5-handle, worse than today
- 10-year treasury yield had a 4-handle, same as today
- 30 year fixed rate mortgage had a high 5-handle, slightly better than today

I am seeing a mixed bag. Your income is high now, equity markets are doing reasonably well, and the job market is better now. Interest rates now are in a similar ballpark as what they were then.

If you are real estate-oriented, which it seems you are, residential values from an investor's point of view have kept pace with inflation in MA, and fallen behind the equity markets.

On the face of the numbers, I will take today. Full disclosure - I am not real estate-oriented. There are of course subjective aspects to how we see things.

[Germanauto]

Any of you dabble with the ETF QQQ/QQQM?

I have a fair sum invested in it, but curious if I should continue investing given the 0.15% expense ratio.

[Luxury]

Has anyone reading this ever watched "Money As Debt" by Paul Grignon?

[440i6MT]

Originally Posted by Germanauto

Any of you dabble with the ETF QQQ/QQQM?

I have a fair sum invested in it, but curious if I should continue investing given the 0.15% expense ratio.

An aside, what do you consider a high expense ratio for an ETF?

[440i6MT]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Almost 2 yrs ago I converted my traditional IRA to a brokerage IRA, I was shocked and happy when the traditional MF funds in it returned to even about 3 months ago, but about 40% of it is in stocks and ETFs which is more volatile but better off.

You can always do the same and try to do better than the MF companies.

How's the manual e60 treating you? I have my 440i up for sale & an eye on an '08 Silverstone on Black 6-speed as a weekend car.

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

What are you invested in, stock and fund wise? Do they have high expense ratios. That may be some of it.

ETFs, Mutual Funds & a few stocks such as Google, Amazon & Apple.

[bagekko]

I guess I would of picked that period for some things that don't show up in the stats; food was a lot more reasonable and eating out was reasonable with much better quality. Travel was much much cheaper travel, remember possible east to west for $300, north east to FL under $200. Back then oh how reasonable scotch and premium liquor was, would of bought cases of Yamazaki 18 if I knew it would go from $80 to $500 a bottle.

Not in MA/RI anymore, too lazy to up profile. Current house has almost doubled even with the slowdown to what paid 3.5yrs ago. 20yrs ago in RI/MA 5-600k got you a fabulous house, now it's 1M+ unless you want something 2-3 decades old.

Originally Posted by chassis

Using 2005 as a reference point:

- CPI all items has increased at a 2.5% CAGR from Jan-2005 until now
- YOY CPI inflation was around 3% in 2005
- Case-Shiller HPI has grown at a CAGR of 3.5% nationally, and 2.8% for MA since 2005
- S&P500 total return from 2005 until now is 7%, better than inflation
- Unemployment had a 5-handle, worse than today
- 10-year treasury yield had a 4-handle, same as today
- 30 year fixed rate mortgage had a high 5-handle, slightly better than today

I am seeing a mixed bag. Your income is high now, equity markets are doing reasonably well, and the job market is better now. Interest rates now are in a similar ballpark as what they were then.

If you are real estate-oriented, which it seems you are, residential values from an investor's point of view have kept pace with inflation in MA, and fallen behind the equity markets.

On the face of the numbers, I will take today. Full disclosure - I am not real estate-oriented. There are of course subjective aspects to how we see things.

[bagekko]

Its good, need to invest in some maintenance like new shocks & other suspension bits, think calipers are starting to stick and wheel bearings. Just investing in other hobbies and won't order the 5-6k in parts till I know I have the time to do the work. Still a blast to drive and maybe the most pure fun car I will ever own. M4 is great and need to get back into a manual one again, it's just not a NA V10.

The market has softened on them like everything, peak think mine was worth about $30k'ish. Still nice examples can be found but more and more need TLC to get to my standards. Would buy a M6 S85 6spd vert in a heartbeat for the right deal just to have 2 V10s.

Originally Posted by 440i6MT

How's the manual e60 treating you? I have my 440i up for sale & an eye on an '08 Silverstone on Black 6-speed as a weekend car.

[440i6MT]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Its good, need to invest in some maintenance like new shocks & other suspension bits, think calipers are starting to stick and wheel bearings. Just investing in other hobbies and won't order the 5-6k in parts till I know I have the time to do the work. Still a blast to drive and maybe the most pure fun car I will ever own. M4 is great and need to get back into a manual one again, it's just not a NA V10.

The market has softened on them like everything, peak think mine was worth about $30k'ish. Still nice examples can be found but more and more need TLC to get to my standards. Would buy a M6 S85 6spd vert in a heartbeat for the right deal just to have 2 V10s.

Nice!
What mileage is yours sitting at? Just so I know what maintenance intervals to catch up on.

How would you say the f8x compares to the e60? I have my eye on an f80 manual 4-5 years down the line. Worth it owning both?