Quote:
Originally Posted by roastbeef
what do you guys think this will do for mortgage rates? i've been holding off on a refi to see what happens on the 18th.
|
I don’t watch mortgage rates very closely, but since they are tied to the long end of the curve I’d think they are about done moving down. Maybe a few more basis points but likely nothing dramatic.
That’s based on the thesis that the Fed is accommodating the trade wars (tariffs), but fundamentally the economy is strong and strongest in the developed world. Thus the Fed may ease again in Sept (or Dec) but that isn’t likely to move the long end of the curve much if at all.
If we get a deal with China and other major trading partners, then there is upside to rates and probably inflation.
If the economy is headed to recession or negative rates are on the horizon, long rates will fall more. I don’t think that is the case with full employment and an election upcoming.