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      07-06-2011, 01:18 AM   #31
mact3333
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Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Portland Area

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Black box trading is great for large hedge funds or banks...they can legally manipulate the system because they have the lobbyists and politicians on their side...when they fail the tax payers must bail them out...thats how the game works...we, on the other hand, must ride along with the cheaters and manipulators cause if we dont, we get our head handed to us.

During a true bull mkt, anyone throwing darts can be and look smart...its the choppy or bear mkts that seperate real traders from the go long and hide group.

Believe me, I have had many many bad trades in my life and will cont to have them...only way to make money is to catch a trend change and ride it...for the avg Joe, if you try to trade for the short term, you will lose 90% of the time.

You needed to catch that bottom on 3/9/09...now the goal is the catch "the top" and ride the bear down when it comes...I am banking on inflation for now...the charts look like 1962-1982...I am looking for a massive expanding triangle on a 20 year chart to play out...will it happen?...who knows, but I have reasons to believe it will...wouldnt surprise me to make all new time highs late this yr or early next yr followed by 2 yrs of declines undercutting 666 on SPX in 2013-2014.

Our economy is a ponzi scheme and everyone knows it...the bond vigilantes will wake up one day and demand that interest rates go up...the Federal reserve only knows one thing, to expand the money supply...alot during bad times and a little during good times...hence the value of the dollar has decreased by 98% since the inception of the Fed Reserve....do you think this trend will change????...not likely...once we hit 5.00 gas inflation will halt our economy and the fake nominal gains you get on SPX will be overshadowed by the 800.00 a month you spend on gas...funny thing is this, if Obama increased your tax rate by 10% you would throw a shit fit, but when the Fed Reserve increases their balance sheet by 2T over several yrs(printing money out of thin air), its doing the exact same thing by causing inflation but nobody will raise an eyebrow about this... this is a clandestine tax that wont be appreciated by most cause the "people" in charge do such a great job of hiding the ponzi scheme....

Its a funny world, my wife is a CPA and they never taught her in college how banking(fractional banking) works...find that abit odd?...I know bankers who couldnt explain it to me also...hmmm....

I could post more charts on here showing "my" likely roadmap for the future but I wont...not until you show me something useful...




Quote:
Originally Posted by scorcherjf View Post
Haha well I meant finance obviously. You can make fun of that and tell me how worthless it is and that's fine - you're entitled to that opinion and I'm not going to argue with you about it. Lets just say I'm on the other side of the spectrum - the grunt trying to learn the ropes on the black box side of things.

I can't offer my "insight" for obvious reasons but I do like to discuss combining economic and financial theory with quantitative trading. If this thread is reserved for staring at charts and trying to see shapes and figures in them then I'm afraid I can't add anything but if you do discuss market dynamics then I'd be happy to chime in with my crazy thoughts. I just don't like seeing people only bragging about their winning trades and making it seem like they never lose because we all know that's bull. You admit you've lost money, as have I, and I've learned from those trades as I'm sure you have.

You mentioned earlier that metals and the general markets move the same way but how are you quantifying this? If you mean the general "drift" then of course that would be correct, but if you actually look at the returns the correlation between gold and the S&P is actually quite low, while the correlation between gold and silver is pretty high (obviously). Gold is usually regarded as a longer term inflation hedge so subtracting inflation out of market prices and comparing them with gold returns actually doesn't show much of a relationship.

Also... be careful with leveraged ETFs because their fees aren't exactly what they make it out to be. You said you stopped following those number crunchers so I guess you're not really concerned with that then.
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