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Not shocking my info is based on aggregate and a bit stale compared to you guys who are in it. Im not actually shipping shit, Im a speculative investor (one of my majors was finance, got put it to use somehow) and Im constantly digging for pointers and opportunities. I YOLO (not really, I have a "play account" but am hyper aggressive) but not WSB type where I follow memes, I look for shit about to hit the fan, load up on puts, and then cash out on short term gains.
Also be interesting to see what the yield curve does. We have inverted a million times without a recession but if its sustained a recession happens within a year almost every time. Are are past due in the business cycle, all the toys in the feds toolbox has been able to soften the cycles but nothing has ever ended it.
Buuuutttt, were in uncharted territory. We had a (fucking hopefully) 1 in 100 year pandemic and the last one happened in a completely different economy and the fed had not encountered the great depression yet.
But too much shit scans. We are having sustained droughts basically anything southwest of Kansas City. Right now southwest KS is looking at a 37% yields, a good chunk of Ukraine is offline and another good chunk is being stolen by Russia, and California is in a bad state (I know its fun to go "LOL libs" but you know how much domestic production is there?). Pandemic, dust bowl, political instability, yay. Beyond the price of grain we might be looking at literally not being able to get sh*t. Almond trees love to just fucking DIE if they dont get an excessive amount of water.
Honestly the OP asked the wrong question anyway, the DOW is trash as a marker. There is a lot more going on we should worry about how 30 high cap companies are "worth."
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