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      09-25-2021, 10:46 AM   #24

Drives: Potato
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: USA

iTrader: (1)

Originally Posted by chassis View Post
2000cs My personal view is that retirement status is relevant to the discussion, and is why I asked you what your volatility tolerance is. What is it?

I have seen up close and personal investors (human beings) drastically change their risk (volatility) tolerance after they pass the magic threshold of 59.5 yrs (IRA/401k handcuffs gone) and after they start receiving Social Security benefits.

This is very easily seen on the bogleheads and early-retirement sites. People who are mid-late 60s of age or older are far less volatility tolerant than people under age 60, most of whom are in the capital accumulation phase of investing. On those sites I mentioned, people in their 80s and 90s are posting. Some people aren't aware of this, and the threads degenerate into conflict. There will almost never be agreement between a 45 year old and a 90 year old on investing strategy. Yet those two ages of posters are engaging in discussion on those sites.

So 2000cs if I suggest to you investments that make sense for my portfolio, and I knew that you are retired, I would anticipate the reply that "that stuff is too spicy", because of your retirement status. The discussion at that point would be pretty boring.

However, if you answer the question about your current portfolio volatility (measured by its 5yr standard deviation), we can have a productive discussion on this thread. My portfolio standard deviation, including cash, is a few points higher than SPY, with some of my holdings around twice the SPY standard deviation. Excluding cash, my standard deviation is quite a bit higher than SPY.
I like risk and have a high tolerance but I donít invest without doing a lot of research and I stay on top of my investments. In other words, Iím very active. If I was passive Iíd be into funds. As my faculties diminish I will probably rotate into safer investments and ultimately funds, because I wonít be able to manage risk at all well.

But again the thread isnít about personal investment so much as the broader strategies for an inflationary environment. Will growth stocks be performers? Will dividend stocks decline in value as rates rise (like a bond)? What about dividend stocks where there is a history of annual dividend increases? Mining and minerals sector? Real estate or REITs, Etc. Just curious what people think overall - macro. Not individual stock picks nor portfolio advice per se.
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