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      12-15-2018, 09:25 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...ime-2018-12-14

Instead of talking about doom and gloom, can anyone think of something that can make this market go higher? It's the things that nobody sees coming that crashes the market, and likewise, it's the unexpected things that make the market go higher. Maybe the FED comes out and say no more rake hikes until 2019 or something like that, but still if there is something systemic, it won't be enough. But it will be a double edge sword because if the FED pauses, investors might feel there may be something wrong and sell even more.

Most people are still talking about trade war and FED rate hikes. I still don't think the recent selloffs were because of trade war or rate hikes. It has to be something else ... something much bigger. Trade war and rate hikes are too predictable to cause the selloffs. It has to be something that is systemic although may not be as big as 2008, still big enough for concern. There have been some talk of the corporate debts that may affect the banks in a big way. I don't know. If I knew I wouldn't be here :-).

Last Friday selloff was the first time I saw some concerns ... probably not fear yet but definitely concerns.
The market is very skittish and newsy right now, so I think trade issues (the arrest), the jobs report, the Trump stuff and all the rest has an impact. None of that sustains, but it cumulates. Add in GE and Apple woes, and you have some more fundamental worries. IMO the big headwind is the Dems taking the house. That probably stalls any further pro-business and Pro-market legislation, and the potential for Dem actions in 2020 that it portends may mean all of the Trump Bump is temporary.

We will know in a few days about the Fed, but I think an increase will be seen as choking the economy when it is already weakening, and a pause will be seen as acknowledgement that the economy is weak. The increase is baked into the market, a pause is not, so a pause will be worse for the market this week. IMO
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