[tony20009]

As much as I like mechanical watches, even I must admit that I don't see how the next generation will worse off without them.

I'd almost certainly wear that watch.

I now know there's going to be no point in buying any more expensive watches for my kids. There is no way they will wear that + a traditional watch (I wouldn't either.) and the connectivity it provides is going to be very compelling for them. They are more connected to their tech than they were to their mother at birth.

But it's not just them. Seeing that video of how the thing works has me wondering whether I really need to buy any more pricey watches for myself. I'm a luxury/style junkie before I'm a movement junkie. I would love to trade the uncertainty that comes with not easily knowing just what I'm getting when I buy a watch (any price) for the easily understood performance metrics of a "wearable" that's like a phone or PC. I'm certain the case options are limitless as are the dial imagery one could have.

I would not miss for one second all the BS that accompanies watch marketing, to say nothing of the thousands per year I have to spend on maintenance. I'm sure I don't need to enumerate any examples of the tons of frivolous things one can do with a few grand. <wink>

Some folks might think that this thing poses a conundrum. It absolutely does, but it doesn't have to either. I offer tapestries as a parallel. Long ago, there were mundane tapestries, little more than blankets or rugs, and there were highly elaborate ones too. Tapestries were appreciated for their artistic value, the luxury of the textiles from which they were made, as well as the intricacy of their creation and construction. They also had a practical purpose: to minimize drafts and help spaces retain heat. Eventually, building materials and construction methods made tapestries obsolete aside from their aesthetic value. Tapestries became works of art and so they remain even today. So at one time, tapestries were part of the HVAC system of their day. Then another technology pushed them aside.

Mechanical watches have been very much the modern day tapestry. Little but the final death knell is left before they are relegated firmly into the world of art, at which point the prices, like the price of art, will skyrocket after a brief but dramatic fall.

Watch Industry (Supply-Side)Thoughts:
As an aside, I wonder how much advance notice of this the mechanical watch industry insiders have/had? Do they already have plans for managing the transition so as to keep prices high? Clearly the big volume makers will be hardest hit. Small-batch producers like FPJ and P Dufour may actually see no meaningful impact as their production volumes are low enough that their demand curves may not suffer too much. Hard to say for sure; it would depend on whether their current volumes are small enough to remain unaffected...For my part, I'd say now is not a good time to buy major watch company stocks. Has anyone checked Swatch's and others' stock prices today or on trend over the past month?

My guess is that the Swiss will be totally blindsided by this thing. They have a track record of being very good at telling time, but lousy at reading the writing on the wall. The Asians will roll with it and get on board to make money ASAP. It wouldn't surprise me to see one of them being the first to announce having an Android watch.

Those questions notwithstanding, the bigger question is what will folks/companies who can do nothing but make watches do? Cartier will get by. Montblanc will get by. The "holy trinity," (along with many many of the brands that wish they were so holy) however, may have a rough time of it; moreover, it may be come the "Time Keeping Two," if not just one.

I think if the big names in watches know what's good for them, they'd develop a capability to produce these things, or at least elaborate cases, so they can get on the bandwagon early. For some, doing so could be the opportunity they need to get ahead of Rolex and Omega and make a name for themselves as the "posh" choice in "wearables." I suspect too there'll be opportunity for companies that can take and existing mechanical or quartz watch and convert it to an Android watch. I know I have plenty of inexpensive to moderately priced watches that I wouldn't mind converting into an Android "wearable."

Consumer (Demand-Side) Thoughts:
For consumers it's a much easier thing to deal with. One can deem oneself an art collector rather than a watch collector. There are certainly folks who collect fine tapestries and other types of bygone technologies. If one already thinks of one's watches as art rather than as fashion accessories or as function toys so to speak, the transition may not be a big deal at all. For others like me, it's a pretty big deal.

I have a watch on order right now that after seeing this I am considering cancelling, and I'm certainly going to call the seller before the week is out to discuss it. It's not that I don't like the watch; I love it; it's beautiful. But there is no way I'm keen to spend major bucks ($10K+) on a watch -- no matter how fine -- that really only has a useful life of five years or so, if that. As I said, I won't wear both and this thing looks very compelling to me; I can see how as it evolves over the next couple years it could become indispensable just as our cell phones are. I don't know what I'll do just now and I have time to think it through, but whereas yesterday that wasn't a consideration at all, today it is.

If I'm not alone in that line of thinking, that could become a real problem in the short term for many watchmakers. Even folks who've order $40K+ watches and are faced with the prospect of losing a non-refundable deposit may opt to take the loss and be done rather than spend the entire $50K+ and then do little more with the watch than mount it in a case or on a wall, particularly if they didn't fancy themselves art collectors to begin with. I doubt this development will affect the folks who buy $100K+ watches as a great many of them consider watches as pure art anyway, sometimes never really wearing them (in a functional, recurring sense, anyway). After all, how much difference is there between a Picasso on a wall and a VH-"T" in a case? It's hardly a stretch, IMO.

When it comes to non-watchies, I think this Android thing is a done deal. As for watchies, I think some will hold out for as long as they dare/can. The folks in the middle range, along with plenty at the top and bottom, are the ones whose watch buying behavior is difficult to predict, but I suspect the sway of non-watchie popular opinion will carry them to something akin to the Android Wearable. It'll just be too much of a convenience to forgo and walking around with two "watches" n will make them look/feel like loons or antediluvians, like someone wearing spats on their shoes, or a top hat with modern street wear, or carrying a pocket watch with a big chain dangling visibly from their waist or waist coat. <wink>

Just some initial thoughts. I'll admit to having flushed out all of them as I've only just found out about this Android minutes before I opened this thread.

Looking forward to reading other predictions about the impact of this thing on the watch industry -- WIS and non-WIS, makers, sellers, etc.

All the best.