Quote:
Originally Posted by 2000cs
My training is in economics, although I am not a professional or professorial economist. I recall a story about a well respected economist (you already know it isn’t true), walking with his protege down the avenue in New York City discussing the knife-edge theory when the young protege spots a $20 bill on the ground. As they near it the youth stoops to pick it up, but the seasoned economist holds his arm, preventing him from getting the bill. The youth asks why he did it, and the economist responds, “if it was really there someone would have picked it up by now”.
Opportunities exist, but they are fleeting. Program trading works until it doesn’t - generally until another program is faster or more accurate, or both. But even that seems to be ruled by Zeno’s paradox.
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A friend of mine says he has a system where he bets on swimming events (first surprise) as he was a college swimmer and goes through lots of data and follows what betting sites are doing. Of course the data and system sounds great, then I say it's impossible that he wins all the time, he agrees. I ask what percentage of the time he wins and he says 80% of the time. With this I offer to give him $10,000 to bet and if what he says is correct with enough bets and some time it should be almost guaranteed win for me over time and with this I say he can have half the winnings. Of course when put on the spot for the "great system" he suddenly starts backtracking on my odds of winning and doesn't want to be part of betting my money.